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  1. Smitty

    Sunday

    let's start with some shocking news out of houston... jadeveon clowney is injured and will not play today. we now resume our regularly scheduled broadcast. buffalo (ML) 2 units to win 2.4. one of my favorite angles late in the season is to play against teams that need the win. unless the...
  2. Smitty

    1/2 Bowls

    well, i still had a little champagne left, so i'm taking checkmate's suggestion and drinking a couple more mimosas. TaxSlayer Bowl penn st (ML) 1 unit to win 2.1. obviously this is not a strong play for me. but georgia's offense struggled most of the year. and i think they are being coached...
  3. Smitty

    1/1 Bowls

    Outback Bowl tennessee (-10) 3 units. wow, this line was crazy at 8 and now it's up to 10. just insane. well, here's why. northwestern may not score a point. their offense is really bad. unless they can pop a couple trick plays, they're not going to be able to move the ball.
  4. Smitty

    12/31 Bowls

    if you like money, you will fade these plays. I'm fucking horrible right now. Peach Bowl houston (+7) 4 units houston (ML) 2 units to win 4.5. absolutely love the cougars today. i'm not sure fsu is even going to show up for this game. 2 years ago, they won the nc. last year they were in...
  5. Smitty

    12/30 Bowls

    i still can't pick the right side to save my life. Birmingham Bowl tigers (ML) 3 units to win 4.2. just kidding. that's the memphis tigers. going into the season, auburn had slightly higher hopes than staying home for the birmingham bowl. obviously losing fuentes hurts, but i think memphis...
  7. Smitty

    12/29 Bowls

    after the first day of bowls, my picks have been like kobe bryant's shots... i can't hit a fucking thing. :facepalm: Armed Forces Bowl air force (+7) 2 units air force (ML) 1 unit to win 2.2. i normally look to bet against option teams in bowl games because having a couple extra weeks to...
  8. Smitty

    12/28 Bowls

    Military Bowl pitt (ML) 4 units to win 5.6. so... let me get this straight. navy is at home. in the military bowl. in reynolds' last game. only laying 3 to pitt? huh. kinda begging for navy money, isn't it? so naturally i love pitt. several factors in pitt's favor. they've had a few...
  9. Smitty

    Sunday

    car/atl under (47) 2 units. i believe atlanta has now played 10 straight games under the total. 47 feels like a late christmas gift. dallas (ML) 2 units to win 4.5. a couple things working here. i love playing backup qbs in their first start. and i love betting against teams that just got...
  10. Smitty

    12/26 Bowls

    St Petersburg Bowl UConn (ML) 1 unit to win 1.6. Mostly an anti-Marshall play, but a big motivational edge for the huskies. I fully expect this game to be somewhere around 12-10 in the fourth quarter. And that's where the extra motivation will be key. UConn pulls out an ugly win. Under (44)...
  11. Smitty

    Wednesday Bowls

    Poinsettia Bowl boise (-9) 1 unit. this is either a bad line or a huge trap. i'm hoping/betting it's a trap. this was far from a vintage boise team. and despite NI's qb problems, this line still seems to be begging for NI money.
  13. Smitty

    Tuesday Bowls

    Famous Idaho Potato Bowl utah st (-6.5) 1 unit under (46.5) 2 units. i'm banking on the team playing hard for chuckie keaton, as he wraps up his 13-year career in logan. while utah state's defense hasn't been as good as in the last few years, they won't have to be great to shut down akron...
  14. Smitty

    Miami Beach Bowl

    south florida (ML) 3 units to win 3.6. i like the new willie taggarts to beat the old willie taggarts. the key is south florida's ground game, which can keep doughty and that offense off the field. the bulls have already held memphis to 24 so they've proven they can slow down a high-powered...
  15. Smitty

    Sunday

    jacksonville (-2.5) 3 units. wow, i've played the jags way too many times this year. but i see no reason not to play them today, other than a possible letdown coming off the trouncing of indy. but even that shouldn't be enough to help atlanta. the falcons haven't played well since 10/4 and i...
  16. Smitty

    12/19 Bowls

    Celebration Bowl... ha! just kidding. New Mexico Bowl new mexico (+9) 1 unit new mexico (ML) 1 unit to win 3. this feels almost too easy. i mean, the lobos haven't lost the new mexico bowl since 2006. they OWN this game. in fact, that's why they renamed it the new mexico bowl. little...
  17. Smitty

    Monday

    over (47.5) 2 units. for one thing, this line tells you just about all you need to know. seems to be set a couple points high for two teams that don't score a lot. but taking a closer look... the ball is going to be in the air a lot. last i knew, miami threw the ball on a higher percentage...
  19. Smitty

    Sunday

    one of these days, i'll play a favorite again. pittsburgh (ML) 3 units to win 3. the line says it all here. 10-2 cincinnati at home against 7-5 pittsburgh, and the line is less than 3? clearly pittsburgh is going to win. :) atl/car under (45) 3 units. atlanta's last 8 games have gone...
  20. Smitty

    Sunday

    jacksonville (ML) 2 units to win 2.7. tennessee has lost an impressive 11 straight home games. the jags have been better on the road. including the london game, jacksonville has won 2 of their last 3 games away from home, and covered all 3. houston (ML) 2 units to win 2.7. maybe this one is...
  21. Smitty

    Saturday

    Big shock. All doggies today. K. St. (ML) 2 units to win 4. after pretty much quitting on the season after blowing halftime leads against ok st and tcu, k st has beaten 2 bad teams. if anyone can get these guys ready for one more game, it's coach snyder. west virginia is a very mediocre...
  22. Smitty

    Sunday

    probably meaningless stat of the week... teams that played on thursday the previous week are 2-7-1 ATS the last 5 weeks. at least i hope it's meaningless, since i'll be on jacksonville today and maybe tennessee. and a question for the panel... is ANYBODY on atlanta today? minnesota (ML) 2...
  23. Smitty

    Saturday

    bryanz, any thoughts on whether the orange are going to play hard for coach shafer's last game? michigan (ML) 3 units to win 3. it's easy for the whole team to get along when you're winning, but you see their true character when they lose. and ohio st did not look good after last week...
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