10/10 MLB Play

[Nick Douglas]

I will post a writeup later on my page. I played it overnight so the line may have moved.

ASTROS +125 over Braves 200/250

I would play the Astros at any + number.

 

[Never Caught Up]

Hope you are right Nick. Looks like you, TV and me are about the only ones on HOU. I may be pulling a little too much with my heart being a Texan, but since nobody has ever pulled out a five game championship series if they lost the first two to the visitor, I am going with the Astros in a "Do or Die" situation.

"Remember the Alamo?" We lost, but we won game two at San Jacinto (a suberb of Houston).

 

[Shunner]

Arent you guys leary of Mlicki?

 

[Nick Douglas]

Good to hear that you and TV are on it.

As far as Mlicki goes, he should be able to go 5 with 3 or less runs against this Braves lineup. I still love the Astros pen even after they collapsed yesterday. The main thing to look at here is how strong a team Houston is hitting lefties.

 

[Shunner]

After losing his first eight career decisions against Houston, Glavine (16-7, 3.57 ERA) has gone 14-2 with a 2.28 ERA vs. the Astros since the start of the 1992 campaign. He has not lost to Houston since 1995, going 8-0 with a 2.48 ERA over that span.

ThAT SCARES ME

Not trying to knock your pick, just trying to find a good reason to make a play.

 

[pp]

Nick isnt there more value with the cards today concidering the way woodie has pictched and johnsons record against good teams the only other team he has a losing record agaisnt is altlanta other than the cards...gl

 

[Nick Douglas]

Agreed that the Cards have huge value today. I am waiting until I see how the first game goes before making a final decision on STL, though.

Glavine had two starts vs. Houston this year, one where he was rocked and one where he pitched very well. His results before this year with these two teams don't really concern me. Bottom line for me is I am playing the better team with the better bullpen and better batters at home in a must win in the playoffs at plus money vs. a lefty and they hit lefties very, very well.

 

[JT Sneaks]

Nick,

I checked out you the numbers with the stros against lefties and on the year they have hit them better, but lateley they have not hit anyone well, to include lefties. Rueteur for the giants shut them down in his last start.

I don't like the side half as much as the total, and since you believe Milicki is going to give up 3-5 runs to the braves, and you think the astros are still going to win, do you also like the Over?

Best of luck in all you do,

JT

Sneaks

 

[pp]

they hit lefties well but not in the post season...gl

 

[Nick Douglas]

Sorry it took me a while to reply.

Yeah, the over looked good, but I wanted 8.5, not 9. That is why I passed there. Plus I am not a great totals player to begin with.

 

[fletcher]

i would watch that dback game cards beat him the first time and got a lot of runs 9 in 5innings but he had a stiff back that game and thought he could pitch.
the 2nd loss he gave up 3 runs and had 11 k's and thats when the dbacks were not hitting the ball it was 3-1.
he has less pressure on him then if he were to start game 1,now they got 1 win the worse they can do is split so it takes a lot off of the stress.
he said he wants this game and he will get it. when he talks like that it comes true most of the time,just a heads up to you.
drew and edmonds will have trouble if the slider is sharp,and you can mark this down in your book mac and renteria willnot be able to handle the hard stuff.williams will have to be perfect to win this one today and i don't think that will happen in bank one.

 

[Bonovox]

Amen, Fletcher. If Unit's slider is working, forget it. The only Unit is hittable is when his back is acting up and he can't snap the slider down and in to the righties. All three hit last nights were on fastballs by Schilling. The double by Renteria was a classic case of Schilling expecting him to take the first pitch. The double by Edmonds was a mistake. They didn't hit a single breaking pitch hard. If Unit snaps off those nasty sliders - forget it. Williams will have to outpitch him and I don't think that will happen either.

 

[Nick Douglas]

Tough loss to open the day but the Astros put men on in just about every inning so I feel okay about it. Two more plays today piggybacking fletcher and Investment Executive.

DIAMONDBACKS -190 over Cardinals 190/100

Athletics vs. YANKEES over 7.5 +100 300/300

 

[a-train]

Nick
I mean no disrespect--I am not a good baseball capper.
What made you change your mind on the Cards--I was with you on the huge value and played it and was surprised to see you piggyback someone elses pick against your own reasoning.
Thanks and GL

 

[Nick Douglas]

I just did not like it enough to play the cards and I thought fletcher gave good reasoning on some things I hadn't considered, so I placed a small wager the other way based on that. Cards are up 2-0 now so I may be played for the fool here but that is why I changed course.

 

[TORONTO-VIGILANTE]

Hope you are right Nick. Looks like you, TV and me are about the only ones on HOUSTON.

sorry, i laid off the bet last nite...glad I did..HOUSTON LOST 1-0.....fawk.

 

[fletcher]

relax its only the first inning.don't worry till they 7th.
he will be fine after the first.

 

[Nick Douglas]

In watching St. Louis take the lead after I decided to pass on them and play the Dbacks, I had to look back at my records. With my loss on Houston I have lost *15* baseball bets in a row. That is unbelieveable. I was just curious if anyone has ever documented a longer losing streak in a single sport.

 

[dr. freeze]

ouch...i think i have probably been on that train before.....

D-Backs offense looks to be anemic.

I kind of like that under trend -- see notes before....I told myself two years ago -- when I took a little layoff from gambling -- that next time playoffs roll around, I would bet the under on every game no matter who starts.....

I think the reason the under hits many times is that
1. Delays between games help bullpens and occasionally starters get rested
2. Hitters tighten up -- aka the Disastros are a prime example
3. Umps seem to be even more liberal than they were with the name pitchers
4. Managers play more conservatively
5. Managers have a quicker hook
6. More public money coming in which likes overs and runs
Anyways -- I bet if you jumped on the UNDER bandwagon, you could stop your losing streak sooner or later.....

 

[dr. freeze]

one last reason for unders-- scouting is more complete on hitters for the postseason