I hope everyone had a lovely Christmas.
We had a slight change in plans, so I don't know if I'll get to all 3 Saturday bowls. And I'm certainly fucked for Saturday, but we'll cross that bridge when we get to it. Anyway, our plan was to go see Zootopia today. But then the GF said she also wants to see the new Anaconda movie. Well, I've never watched the first. So we stayed home and just finished watching that. And the plan is to do a double feature tomorrow. Zootopia and Anaconda. Both featuring an evil snake. (Quick review of Anaconda... ridiculously bad. Not even saved by J-Lo's hotness.)
What? You didn't come here for movie reviews? Fair enough. Let's stop wasting time...
Sports Bowl
Close enough. Anyway, this one's easy. CMU's HC (Matt Drinkall*) is in his first year. Update: going back to the beginning of last year's bowl season, HC's in their first year at the program are now 2-10-1 ATS. Eh, fuck it, let's do the work.
*Near as I can tell, that is his actual name. Sounds like a fun guy at parties.
CMU went most of the season beating up the dregs of the MAC (and those are some serious dregs). But their last two wins were over UB and Kent St, who both finished 4-4 in conference. So there's that.
NW also took advantage of some dregs. Their biggest wins were at PSU (which soon didn't seem so big) and against Minnesota. Of their 5 wins over FBS competition, only 2 were by more than 3 points (UL Monroe and Purdue).
Both of these teams get roughly half their yards on the ground.
NW starting RB Komolafe missed the finale, but is expected back. He averages 5.1 yards/carry. Backup Himan was injured in the finale and is questionable. Starting CB Fred Davis is also questionable after missing the finale. LT Tiernan (considered one of the top lineman in the country) and DE Saka are potential opt-outs as they prepare for the draft. I can't confirm either way if they're playing. NW is also missing some depth on the defensive line.
Only one potential opt-out is listed for CMU. DE Michael Heldman had a hell of a year with 10.5 sacks (tied for 8th in the country) and 16 TFLs (12th). Near as I can tell, he's playing.
CMU has 3 RBs with at least 75 carries. Biggins had 105 carries and averages 5.1 yards/carry. Long story short, your guess is as good as mine as to who gets carries in this game. All 3 have led the team in carries in the last 3 games. None have really stood out. The wildcard in the ground game is QB Flores. He's not the starter. He has 100 carries (and only 27 pass attempts) and averages 5.3/carry. He hasn't played since week 9, but is allegedly healthy and playing in this game. Despite missing a bunch of games, he has 8 of their 17 rushing TDs. I also saw this stat (I haven't verified it)... "The Chips averaged 201.6 rushing yards per game (4.4 ypc) with Flores compared to just 102.3 without him (2.7) over the final four games." CMU's starting QB is Joe Labas. He's their thrower (so, obviously, he transferred from Iowa. Home of top QBs). He put up solid numbers, completing 69% with 12 TDs and 6 INTs and averaging an impressive 9.2 yards/att. One note though... in November, he had 5 TDs and 5 INTs. NW is vulnerable to the ground game, giving up 4.4 yards/carry (89th in the country).
NW's QB is Preston Stone. He put up big #s as the starter at SMU in 2023, but was relegated to backup duty last year so he transferred to NW. His #s this year were... less than spectacular. He completed 60% with 14 TDs and 12 INTs, averaging 6.4 yards/att. Those 12 INTs tied him for 4th in the country. Not good on an offense that is this run-heavy. CMU is only slightly better than NW at stopping the run, allowing 4.3 yards/rush.
Everything points at CMU to cover the spread and maybe even get the win. Hell, the MAC is even 3-0 ATS this bowl season. But my intuition is screaming to bet the Wildcats. Maybe it's just because it's late on Christmas Day and I'm tired. But I gotta listen to my gut. My overstuffed gut. Dammit, I've been awful on totals. But when I saw the headline "Northwestern and Central Michigan are heading for a defensive showdown" I knew I had to play the over.
NW (-10) 4.5 to win 4
NW (-9.5) 5.2 to win 4. This line ticked back up from 10 to 10.5 while I was typing. Yup, I'm pissed I didn't just put it in before typing it up. Anyway, I decided to buy it down to 9.5.
Over (43.5) 4.2 to win 4
Parlay NW -6.5/Over 40.5 2 to win 2.5
That took so long that I'm done for the night. No idea if I'll get a chance to work on the other 2 games tomorrow. Just glancing at it, I like New Mexico BUT Fleck is 6-0 SU in bowl games at Minnesota and... the NM HC is in his first year. So I might have to go with Minnesota. And absolutely no clue on the late game. Although the FIU HC is also in his first year.
We had a slight change in plans, so I don't know if I'll get to all 3 Saturday bowls. And I'm certainly fucked for Saturday, but we'll cross that bridge when we get to it. Anyway, our plan was to go see Zootopia today. But then the GF said she also wants to see the new Anaconda movie. Well, I've never watched the first. So we stayed home and just finished watching that. And the plan is to do a double feature tomorrow. Zootopia and Anaconda. Both featuring an evil snake. (Quick review of Anaconda... ridiculously bad. Not even saved by J-Lo's hotness.)
What? You didn't come here for movie reviews? Fair enough. Let's stop wasting time...
Sports Bowl
Close enough. Anyway, this one's easy. CMU's HC (Matt Drinkall*) is in his first year. Update: going back to the beginning of last year's bowl season, HC's in their first year at the program are now 2-10-1 ATS. Eh, fuck it, let's do the work.
*Near as I can tell, that is his actual name. Sounds like a fun guy at parties.
CMU went most of the season beating up the dregs of the MAC (and those are some serious dregs). But their last two wins were over UB and Kent St, who both finished 4-4 in conference. So there's that.
NW also took advantage of some dregs. Their biggest wins were at PSU (which soon didn't seem so big) and against Minnesota. Of their 5 wins over FBS competition, only 2 were by more than 3 points (UL Monroe and Purdue).
Both of these teams get roughly half their yards on the ground.
NW starting RB Komolafe missed the finale, but is expected back. He averages 5.1 yards/carry. Backup Himan was injured in the finale and is questionable. Starting CB Fred Davis is also questionable after missing the finale. LT Tiernan (considered one of the top lineman in the country) and DE Saka are potential opt-outs as they prepare for the draft. I can't confirm either way if they're playing. NW is also missing some depth on the defensive line.
Only one potential opt-out is listed for CMU. DE Michael Heldman had a hell of a year with 10.5 sacks (tied for 8th in the country) and 16 TFLs (12th). Near as I can tell, he's playing.
CMU has 3 RBs with at least 75 carries. Biggins had 105 carries and averages 5.1 yards/carry. Long story short, your guess is as good as mine as to who gets carries in this game. All 3 have led the team in carries in the last 3 games. None have really stood out. The wildcard in the ground game is QB Flores. He's not the starter. He has 100 carries (and only 27 pass attempts) and averages 5.3/carry. He hasn't played since week 9, but is allegedly healthy and playing in this game. Despite missing a bunch of games, he has 8 of their 17 rushing TDs. I also saw this stat (I haven't verified it)... "The Chips averaged 201.6 rushing yards per game (4.4 ypc) with Flores compared to just 102.3 without him (2.7) over the final four games." CMU's starting QB is Joe Labas. He's their thrower (so, obviously, he transferred from Iowa. Home of top QBs). He put up solid numbers, completing 69% with 12 TDs and 6 INTs and averaging an impressive 9.2 yards/att. One note though... in November, he had 5 TDs and 5 INTs. NW is vulnerable to the ground game, giving up 4.4 yards/carry (89th in the country).
NW's QB is Preston Stone. He put up big #s as the starter at SMU in 2023, but was relegated to backup duty last year so he transferred to NW. His #s this year were... less than spectacular. He completed 60% with 14 TDs and 12 INTs, averaging 6.4 yards/att. Those 12 INTs tied him for 4th in the country. Not good on an offense that is this run-heavy. CMU is only slightly better than NW at stopping the run, allowing 4.3 yards/rush.
Everything points at CMU to cover the spread and maybe even get the win. Hell, the MAC is even 3-0 ATS this bowl season. But my intuition is screaming to bet the Wildcats. Maybe it's just because it's late on Christmas Day and I'm tired. But I gotta listen to my gut. My overstuffed gut. Dammit, I've been awful on totals. But when I saw the headline "Northwestern and Central Michigan are heading for a defensive showdown" I knew I had to play the over.
NW (-9.5) 5.2 to win 4. This line ticked back up from 10 to 10.5 while I was typing. Yup, I'm pissed I didn't just put it in before typing it up. Anyway, I decided to buy it down to 9.5.
Over (43.5) 4.2 to win 4
Parlay NW -6.5/Over 40.5 2 to win 2.5
That took so long that I'm done for the night. No idea if I'll get a chance to work on the other 2 games tomorrow. Just glancing at it, I like New Mexico BUT Fleck is 6-0 SU in bowl games at Minnesota and... the NM HC is in his first year. So I might have to go with Minnesota. And absolutely no clue on the late game. Although the FIU HC is also in his first year.
