Green Bay(+8) over San Francisco (1 Biscuit)
- - I had a good feeling about Green Bay?s chances against Seattle, but I was still wound up like a top all week. For the 49ers, I?ve had surges of great expectations during the week, but lots of consternation over the task at hand when compared to last week . . . The Journey is the Reward.
- - This post is not a dispassionate look at the reasons for picking a side, but some insights on whether or not to back these Packers in a Championship game. Simply put, of course I've been wound up like a top all week, this time with no shortage of positives and negatives to weigh about their matchup.
- - Negative: Of note for me were some of the cringe-worthy expressions of satisfaction and sentimentality conveyed after the Seattle victory. IMO, successful drives to winning the Super Bowl are built on a forward looking obsession with the next task at hand, and I got a much stronger sense of ?the bit is in our teeth? with a locked in 49ers squad after their victory over Minnesota. I certainly remember a resolute drive that was palpable on the Packers squad after each of their wins during their playoff run in 2010, and I detected a mindset that felt different after this one . . . On top of that, I?ve heard talk from HC Matt LaFleur that suggests he would somehow be looking to do everything different on this trip to San Fran, and trying to block out the hype and make it feel like a normal week; those formulas don?t capture the moment quite the way I?m looking to see, but we?ll find out early on how ready the Packers are for the moment.
- - Positive: Green Bay has 14 wins this season, and virtually no one with a public platform is really giving them a chance to win and advance, much of that talk coming after weeks of being doubted as being something like the 8th or 9th best at this or that among the playoff field. No question the disrespect has been real and not imagined, and no question a disrespect angle has fueled lots of achievements in team sports . . . And dismissing the Packer?s chances has really never been the case for what were lesser teams being led by Aaron Rodgers. For some recent history, Green Bay was rolled 36-16 at Seattle in the prime time opening game of the 2014 season, in a game that probably wasn?t as close as the score indicated, and then they went back to Seattle for the NFC Championship, punched Seattle in the mouth right from the start, and picked off Russell Wilson four times, before giving the game away in a late game collapse of historic proportions.
- - Negative: I can?t say I saw exactly what I wanted to see or expected to see out of the Packers in the Seattle game . . . I thought last week was ?very much the right time and place for DC Mike Pettine to showcase the potential of his defense,? but they were definitely gassed after chasing Russell Wilson all over the field for three TD drives in the second half . . . I had ?no doubt they have saved some wrinkles for the huge games that come in January," and there was some of that on a couple of pass route combinations, and some plays featuring recently acquired Tyler Ervin, but after building a big lead, the running game with Jones featured unimaginative efforts to send him up the middle at the strength of the Seattle defense.
- - Positive: The Packers were much better in the first half against Seattle at showing what I wanted to see and expected to see. And if the Green Bay defense gets the pressure they were getting against Seattle, they won?t be worn down and frustrated by Garoppolo in the way Wilson played like a freakish MVP. And just three weeks ago, that same depleted Seattle squad had the SF defense back on their heels as they came within inches of crippling the 49ers big ambitions.
- - Negative: Rodgers has spoken often about being slighted by the 49ers when they didn?t draft him, but his big visits back to the Bay area have never produced any of his finest moments.
- - Positive: Rodgers is the Packers ace in the hole if the rest of this special Packers team is doing their job, and their wildcard for a job that could take something really special.
- - Negative: In their last meeting, Green Bay started the game by turning the ball over inside their own 5 yard line, then RT Bulaga went out and was replaced by a usually ineffective Alex Light, and the offense pretty much deteriorated from there. The defense then held SF to just two more field goals until late in the second half, but without any help from the offense, the dam broke before the half ended.
- - Positive: The first meeting was a prime time showcase for the 49ers, and Green Bay off their bye was unprepared for the onslaught. It happens, and even the ?85 Bears were blown up in a prime time visit to Miami. Does it define the ?19 Packers? Are the 49ers immune to the pressure of expectations if the game starts poorly, and just brush aside the multiple schemes a talented and experienced Packers team rolls out? Today will show.
- - So how do the Packers go about changing the script from their first meeting?
- - Quite a few analysts are of the opinion that you gain a lot by having already played against the 49ers and gone against their schemes on offense and defense. While two of their three NFC West opponents also have very mobile QB?s, the fact is that in five of six games against their division rivals, the 49ers 2019 juggernaut was seriously challenged.
- - Even with SF getting some key contributors back, the Packers squad remains ?knock on wood? healthy. The OL for Green Bay is a strength, especially in pass protection, and they will benefit from having recently gone up against the elite SF defenders, and after a miserable performance in their earlier matchup, they will have to be communicating and at the top of their game in countering the stunts and twists (and defensive holding) that SF employs. And while RT Bulaga has had a stellar season and must be chomping to play after missing last week, he has been unable to finish some games, but at least recently acquired tackle Jared Veldheer showed last week he is a big upgrade in quality depth.
- - Green Bay was 0 for their first 13 third down attempts against the 49ers in November, while converting 9 of 14 third downs last week against Seattle. The thing is, as analyst Michael Lombardi discussed this week, if Green Bay has success this week, the talk afterwards will likely be about what a great job they did with wrinkles and production on first down (on both offense and defense), limiting troublesome third down situations rather than relying on big production on third downs.
- - The Packers run defense is a concern against the schemes and proven ground production of this 49ers team. But GB has been playing better against the run, and once again, a better job of assignment football and eye discipline against something you saw in November is not only possible but necessary . . . In the passing game, the 49ers and Garoppolo love the middle of the field, and that has also been a vulnerable area for the Packers defense. But as broken down by analyst Chris Sims, the Packers have excellent corners, and they should play primarily inside technique, forcing throws from Garoppolo to the outside where he is not nearly as comfortable, and where the opportunistic Packers defense could get chances for some huge plays.
- - The Packers have gotten a late season jolt throughout their special teams play with the acquisition of Tyler Ervin, and strange as it may seem, after watching the 49ers on special teams, a big special teams play by the Packers would not surprise me in the least.
- - Time?s up . . . Simply put, all of my expectations regarding what account Green Bay gives in this game really come down to the first negative discussion paragraph in this post, and how locked in the team is given my real or imagined perceptions of their mindset after the Seattle win. Green Bay definitely comes into this game with loads more experience in big postseason games . . . Super Bowl!
GL
