- Mar 18, 2009
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Wish this was me, but it`s not. However, this guy has played every game this year and here are his thoughts for today`s matchups.
Just looking to share the love:
Well the divisional round seemed to have a couple more twists that were unexpected. Never in my wildest dreams did I believe a team like the New York Jets would be able to go into a hostile environment like Qualcomm Stadium in San Diego to pull off the upset. I mean, the Chargers have one of the most potent offenses and they were held to just 14 points. I really don?t want to make up excuses but when you aren?t able to execute your game plan, you typically don?t win ball games. This was the case for QB Phillip Rivers and Co. The Chargers had no rhythm offensively because the Jets were able to mix up their blitz schemes and when they brought heat it often confused Rivers and forced him to rush through his progressions, leaving him with short dumpoffs and screen plays that the Jets were ready for.
From the beginning I thought the Chargers were rusty. Rivers had a tough day going 27/40, 298 1 TD, 2 INT?s but his teammate RB LaDainian Tomlinson had an even worse day. LT had 12 carries for just 34 yards and his status as the starting RB in San Diego is really being questioned. I just don?t think he has it anymore; not that it would have changed the way this game was played. I just think he has lost a step and now the Chargers are paying for it because they have no running game and their back up Darren Sproles only weighs about 145 LBS soaking wet.
Overall I don?t believe the Chargers were at their best in this game and it is hard to read how they could?ve responded differently. I do believe that the extra week of rest was more harmful than good because of the timing and rhythm that was lost. It became too much for the San Diego offense and they never looked threatening until deep in the 3rd quarter. Of course some people will look at the kicker and say he is to blame but I disagree. Sure the Chargers would have won the game if he nailed 2 out of 3 but that does not change the complexion of the game. The Jets stayed disciplined and they capitalized on the few chances that they were given. Those Jets have a lot of fight in them and lets see if they can carry it into the Conference playoff game.
The Chargers game was really frustrating to watch and often times I found myself pacing throughout the house just trying to find something else to do. It was fate. I knew that the Chargers had little chance at winning when it was the 4th quarter but this was not the most disturbing part of my weekend. The night game on Saturday was the most annoying game of the weekend. Every time the Ravens had momentum they had it ripped away. I really thought the Ravens going into this contest had a great chance at pulling off the upset. In the beginning of the game all looked well. The Ravens initially held the Colts to 3 points on the opening drive and that was a good start. They followed that up with a 15 play drive of their own but had to settle for a field goal. The next two series on defense were productive for the Ravens D but eventually they broke down at the end of the 2nd quarter. Manning went on a 14 play, 8 minute drive to finish it off with a TD toss to WR Austin Collie. The TD itself wasn?t horrible but the ensuing drive by the Ravens was. The Ravens decided they would try and put points on the board before going into halftime. What they didn?t realize is they were going against a defense that forced them into 4, 3 and outs following their 3-point opening drive. Ouch! If I must explain, the Ravens had the ball with 1:55 to go but failed to execute the smartest game plan. Instead they decided to air it out 3 straight times. On first down Flacco completed a 4-yard pass to Ray Rice and the Colts called their first time out. On 2nd down Flacco threw incomplete and the same on 4th down. This was the 4th, 3 and out of the half for Flacco and Co. With 1:26 left and 2 Time Outs, the Colts managed to run 8 plays and finish the drive with a 3-yard TD pass to WR Reggie Wayne.
Things became worse and worse for the Ravens as they had chances in the 2nd half to tie the game but shot themselves in the foot with penalties. Some of the penalties were really questionable and all of them were at inopportune times. Twice Safety Ed Reed picked off Manning and brought the ball inside the Colts 40-yard line. On one of the plays Reed had the ball stripped by WR Pierre Garcon, and on the chance they called pass interference on the defense, Corey Ivy was the guilty party. Had the Ravens capitalized on those two extremely rare chances, the Ravens would have been right back in the game. The Colts outgained the Ravens by just 14 yards, not very convincing if you?re looking to back the Colts this Sunday.
The Vikings game was the other easy victory on the weekend. The Cowboys came into town with a chip on their shoulder and they were shot down! It was not even close. The Minnesota defense was so over powering that the Cowboys couldn?t pound the rock like they had the last few weeks before. RB?s Felix Jones and Marion Barber were held to just 83 yards on 22 carries. DE Ray Edwards was the difference maker; he finished the day with 5 tackles, all for loss of yardage.
While the Vikes defense was stellar, the same can be said about QB Brett Favre. Favre had his 2nd best post-season game of his career with 234 yards and 4 TD?s. It was Favre?s ability to throw the long ball that kept the Cowboys defense on their heels. In just 4 plays on the 2nd drive of the game Favre hit pro bowl WR Sidney Rice for 47 yards. It was just one of them days for Favre where he could do no wrong, lets see if he can do it again this Sunday!
Seriously, I really thought I was going to go 4-0 this weekend. Saturday started off great with the Saints absolutely demolishing the Cardinals. Half way through the game I was wishing that the Cardinals would pull the plug. It was actually quite heartbreaking to see the Cardinals get banged around like they did. QB Kurt Warner took one of the cheapest shots I had ever seen on a QB. Fortunately, he will live to fight another day but his return for one more season is questionable at best.
This week should be a nail biter with such unique matchups between two defensively minded teams taking on two offensively minded teams. The game I am most concerned about is the NYJ @ Indi matchup. Both of these teams come into this matchup with opposing views. The Colts can air it out, much like we thought the Chargers could, but on the flip side, they rank 1 spot behind the Chargers in their rushing offense and that is dead last in the NFL! Something has to give and I?m not so sure home field advantage will be a factor as the Jets have now won the last two playoff games on the road. Let?s take a look at what this matchup has to offer.
NYJ @ Indi -8 ATS Pick:Jets Rating:
The Jets have now bitten me two weeks in a row, from a betting standpoint. I back picked San Diego early in the week in a teaser along with the Saints. But as the weekend came I started to doubt the Chargers, something didn?t feel right. I even felt that they would start the game slow but pick it up as the game went along. Well they did pick it up, but it was over 3 quarters too late and the Jets were up by 10 points (after scoring 17 unanswered). Kicker Nate Kadeing helped seal the deal by missing his 3rd FG with under 5 minutes remaining; a makeable 40 yard attempt wide right.
The scary thing about this matchup between the Colts and Jets is the Jets are the more well-rounded team. I?m not saying offensively the Jets are better because Sanchez is better than Manning, but when you look at the team as a whole, the Jets are strong at 90% of they key positions. When I analyzed last weeks matchup between the Chargers and Jets I figured the Chargers would squeak out a victory and go on the road and beat the #1 team in the AFC. That?s how strong I thought the Chargers were this season, and for them to get knocked off by the Jets (bad game or not) means something. This is really scary because based on my logic the Jets have the advantage because I felt the Chargers were the strongest team of the 4 AFC teams (Baltimore, Indi, NYJ, San Diego) remaining before the Divisional round.
Now don?t get me wrong. I really like the way the Jets have been playing lately but in no way shape or form am I insinuating (or to seem like, lol) that I intend on seeing an upset. I mean this game is in Indi inside of a dome. These type of weather conditions make it lovely for Peyton. With perfect conditions he will find his open receivers and make plays like he does every Sunday and we shouldn?t expect anything differently; right?
Wrong! When watching Manning throw the ball last week he didn?t look as crisp as he had earlier this season. In fact, the Ravens were able to throw him off for the majority of the game. If it weren?t for the efficiency of the Colts offense they would have come short in that game. The Colts scored 14 points in less than 2 minutes to end the half and in a low scoring game like that, 14 points was all the difference. It was all because of 2 mental breakdowns by the players (giving up a 4th down and 4 at the end of the half) and coaching staff (for calling 3 pass plays with under 2 minutes to play at their own 18).
This game was up for grabs for the first 25 minutes of the game and after that 4th down conversion the Ravens had a mini meltdown and that was enough to slow them down for the rest of the game. The objective of the Ravens was to own the Time of Possession by playing smash mouth football and defend the way they did the week prior against the Patriots.
The Ravens ranked a respectable 5th in rushing offense this season but that was because they have one of the most elusive running backs in the league in Ray Rice. Indi was able to stack the box and shut him down for most of the game. Rice finished the day with 67 yards rushing and 60 yards receiving. Unlike the Ravens, the Jets have multiple backs that can shred a defense on any given play. Just like what the Jets did against the Chargers last week. Shonn Greene took off and ran for a 53-yard Touch Down, a Jets franchise postseason record. This weekend will be a huge task for an offense that is ranked 17th in total offense and doesn?t score a whole lot of points per game (21.8). The same scenario I projected last week with the Chargers pulling away early from the Jets would be the same scenario I would project for this week.
The only difference this time around is that the Jets are ranked #1 in rushing offense and they will have little trouble moving the chains on the Colts 24th ranked rush defense that is giving up 126.5 yards per game. The Jets will most certainly utilize their duel threat in the backfield with Thomas Jones and their new #1 RB Shonn Greene. The duo combined for 169 yards rushing last week and 168 yards the week before. Both defenses were similar to the Colts with the Bengals being the best of the group giving up 18.2 points per game and the Chargers 20 points per game. Indi is right in the middle with 19.2 points per game. The Jets should have similar success in this matchup as they had in their first two. Look for New York?s front 5 to own the line of scrimmage and open up huge holes for the RB?s.
We also have to factor in how evenly these two teams played in the first half of week 16 this season. The Jets were down 9-3 and they scored on the opening kickoff of the 2nd half to make it 10-9. The reality is the Colts have not won any games this season by more than a TD against a defensive team ranked in the top 10. The lone exception was last weeks 20-3 win over Baltimore. Again, that game had so many flaws, bad calls and misfortune, you can toss it out the window. As I mentioned in my 411/Recap, the Ravens were only outgained 270-275 yards but they failed to dominate T.O.P and that along with their multiple TO?s put the game out of reach.
In comparison of QB?s performance last week QB Joe Flacco had 2 turnovers in that game that switched field positioning for the Ravens and QB Mark Sanchez only has 1 INT all post season. The team making the least amount of mistakes right now will win this game. The Jets have been seizing their opportunities and scoring off their opponents mishaps.
If the Colts play mistake free football they will edge the Jets out regardless of how well they play. The Colts have more talent all around on offense than any other team in the league but they must be clicking on all cylinders this Sunday for the team to win by a large margin.
In the end I?m banking on the Colts to make just enough mistakes to allow the Jets to stick around; much like the Bengals and Chargers did. Both the Chargers and the Bengals were first to score in their ball games and both failed to close their games out. The Jets have come from behind in both games by keeping them close and I expect them to put up a similar fight this week.
Like I said earlier, the Chargers were the best team in the AFC and the Jets shut ?em down. Since the Colts are even more 1 dimensional it will be interesting to see whether or not the Jets can shut down Reggie Wayne and Pierre Garcon. So far this post season the Jets have not failed in that department. They shut down Ochocinco in the Wild Card round and they shut down Vincent Jackson in the Divisional round. Darrelle Revis is a beast and he will continue to shut down the opposition?s number 1 go-to guy which in this case is Reggie Wayne.
So having already bet against the Jets twice I?d be a fool not to back them this week. They may not be the most fun team to watch play but they do have the fire and intensity to get another win on the road. There is a possibility that the Colts offense takes over and the Colts win by double digits but I doubt that will happen this Sunday in the AFC Conference title game. Listen guys, the Colts are playing too poorly offensively and the Jets are too good defensively to be catching a touch down in this one.
NOTE: The Colts haven?t beaten a team above .500 during the regular season by more than 8 points with the exception of Arizona back in week 3. On the other hand, the Jets have only lost two games all season by more than 5 points.
Prediction: NYJ 16 Indi 20
Outcome: NYJ Indi
Minn @ NO -4ATS Pick: Minn Rating:
Isn?t it ironic that both of these teams beat their opponents by 31 points in the Divisional round? The Saints crushed the Cardinals 45-14 in the Superdome and the Vikings smashed the over hyped Cowboys 34-3 in the Metrodome. Do you remember the last time both Conference playoff games were being played in a dome? That?s right, weather will not be a factor this season for Favre and his teammates and the same goes for the Manning vs. Sanchez matchup (being played at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis).
The Saints come into this game with a lot riding on the line. The fans of New Orleans desperately want to win a Super Bowl title and this year provides them with their best chance in doing so. However, the Saints are playing one of the toughest well-rounded teams in the league. The Vikings are ranked 10th in the league in total defense and are only yielding 19.5 points per game.
The Vikings also rank an impressive 2nd against the run with two of the best run stoppers in the league. The defenders being Kevin Williams who is playing injured and is listed as questionable this week and Pat Williams who hasn?t seen action since week 15. He will be returning to the lineup this Sunday to face the Saints.
My biggest concern is whether or not DE Ray Edwards is healthy enough to play this Sunday. Edwards had 3 sacks on QB Tony Romo last week and he also had 8 tackles, 5 of them for a loss of yardage. Backup LB Erin Henderson is back from his 4 game suspension that he served for violating the substance abuse policy. His status for the game is he is not expected to play much, if at all. With so many lingering issues with the Vikings defense I believe he will see a few plays. Despite only playing two games all season his presence is still very important. I?m not saying the Vikings won?t have 95% of their starters in on defense I?m just saying players might get dinged up during the game and need a mini breather for a play or two.
All of the injuries won?t matter if the Vikings continue to play as sound defensively as they have. The Vikings were able to shutdown the red hot Cowboys who hung 34 points on the Philadelphia Eagles the week before. The Vikings have been stellar at home this season allowing just 3 teams to score above 10 points. The downside is the Vikings have allowed an average of 20 points or more 6 times on the road this season. However, 3 of their road losses came at week 13 or later where they gave up 30,26, and 36 points. Obviously, they had lost focus at the end of the season and that is the main contributing factor as to why people are doubting the Vikings.
The same can be said about the Saints. The Saints dropped their last 3 games of the season and had given up 20+ points in each of it?s final 5 games to close out the season. Both of these teams showed us last week that those final 5 games have no bearing on how they are playing in the post season. Unlike last weeks NFC Divisional games I highly doubt either team will be laying down in this battle.
The Saints have the home field advantage and that dome gets crazy but the Vikings have the experienced leader behind center and a dominating defense. The question remains whether or not the Vikings will continue to give up massive amounts of points on the road or if this Sunday they lay it all out on the line. Brees could have a field day and pick apart this woeful road defense if the Vikings come in unprepared. Do you really think the Vikings aren?t going to be prepared for this one; road game or not?
Establishing an offensive tone from the start will be key in winning this ball game. If the Vikings defer and have to defend first they will need to do what they did against Dallas. They can bend but can?t break, that will force Drew Brees and Co to settle for Field Goals. I thought the Vikings did a great job shutting down the passing lanes last Sunday and forcing Romo to rush out of the pocket. Romo was sacked (6 times) or hit on almost every pass play. The most important thing in last weeks game was the Vikings pass rush. Based on the stats, Romo had a 100+ passer rating in every game except 1 in his last 6 games (from week 12 on) going into the Minnesota game last weekend. He ended the day with a 66.1 passer rating. 40 points below his average, ouch!!!
The pass rush screwed up Romo?s timing so he was unable to deliver strikes to his WR?s. Instead it took an extra second for him to find his comfort (which he never really did) and by that time the Vikings had already fully penetrated through the Cowboys Offensive line. The same will probably happen this weekend, so you?d better believe Brees and his receivers have been working on shorter routes to lessen the damage of the pass rush. If the Saints can some how stop the rush, they will win this game.
Easier said than done but the Saints do have the number 1 offense in the league. Averaging 31.9 points per game and over 403 yards per game the Saints will look to dominate the game through the air. QB Drew Brees is coming off a 247-yard day with 3 TD?s. The most interesting fact about the game was the impact RB/Return man Reggie Bush had. Bush ran a punt back for a 83-yard TD halfway through the 3rd quarter making it 45-15. He also had 84-yards on 5 carries with a 46-yard TD in the mix. The Saints finished the day with over 160 yards rushing (the Saints are ranked 6th in total offense and average 131.9 yards per game) putting them 30 yards over their average.
Bush has been up and down this season and he has stayed healthy for the most part, something he hasn?t really done since entering the NFL 4 years ago. The question I keep asking myself is whether or not I think the Saints will be able to run the ball. With a heavy dosage of running last Sunday, the Saints owned the T.O.P. They faced the 17th ranked rushing defense then and now they are going up against the leagues 2nd best stop unit. Bush was indeed the ?X? factor last week. I wouldn?t count on a repeat this week!
To me it looks like New Orleans will be airing it out a lot. I don?t like the way the matchup presents itself with the Saints having to throw it against this underrated secondary. Clearly, the public underestimated the ability of the Vikings secondary going into last week. I read many threads with people stating that the Cowboys were too good with their front 5 and that the Vikings would not be able to penetrate the O line.
Evidently they didn?t read about how stout this defense really is. I had based a lot of my logic last Sunday on how well the Vikings played at home. This Sunday will be the true test to see if they can travel on the road and knock off, in my opinion, the other best team in the NFL. I believe that the Super Bowl winner will develop from this matchup in the NFC Conference game between New Orleans and Minnesota. The Vikings deserve it if they can win this big one on the road, and on the other side I feel that the Saints are more than worthy of being awarded the big trophy this year. The Saints have been the team to beat all season and that motto will continue for at least one more week.
This game will be much more interesting to watch than the first game, I can assure you of that. The Jets and Colts game should be a low scoring game with minimal highlights. (Unless you like offensive struggles) The Vikings should have their defense prepared for this contest and I believe the Saints will also give it their all. It will be interesting to watch the type of matchup we have between the Saints offense and the Vikings defense. It should be a battle and I feel that the team that defends well and who can run the rock effectively will win this game. I don?t expect a shootout this weekend but it should be a tighter contest than we saw in last weeks NFC games. Don?t expect a 31-point blowout in New Orleans? but possibly an upset.
I have recommended this play to a few of my buddies already. I am taking the Vikings at +450 (sports.com and bodog.com) to win the Super Bowl. As I mentioned, the value of the small underdog winning this matchup should be good enough to win the Super Bowl. I highly doubt the Vikings or the Saints will be more than 3-point underdogs in the Super Bowl. So my logic is this: if you take them on the ML to win this Sunday for lets say $100 you can win $160 (that is what the Vikings are at most sportsbooks on the money line) If you get that same exact line for the Super Bowl and double your original winnings by $160 you will still come up short of $450; savvy? In actuality you will win another $256 and if you add $160 + $256 you only get $416. So the value is you would win an extra $34 for every $100 that you wager. Not too bad, but make sure that you shop around before placing that wager. I?ve seen the Vikings as low as +$375 to win it all.
Prediction: Minnesota 28 New Orleans 23
Outcome: Minnesota New Orleans
Just looking to share the love:
Well the divisional round seemed to have a couple more twists that were unexpected. Never in my wildest dreams did I believe a team like the New York Jets would be able to go into a hostile environment like Qualcomm Stadium in San Diego to pull off the upset. I mean, the Chargers have one of the most potent offenses and they were held to just 14 points. I really don?t want to make up excuses but when you aren?t able to execute your game plan, you typically don?t win ball games. This was the case for QB Phillip Rivers and Co. The Chargers had no rhythm offensively because the Jets were able to mix up their blitz schemes and when they brought heat it often confused Rivers and forced him to rush through his progressions, leaving him with short dumpoffs and screen plays that the Jets were ready for.
From the beginning I thought the Chargers were rusty. Rivers had a tough day going 27/40, 298 1 TD, 2 INT?s but his teammate RB LaDainian Tomlinson had an even worse day. LT had 12 carries for just 34 yards and his status as the starting RB in San Diego is really being questioned. I just don?t think he has it anymore; not that it would have changed the way this game was played. I just think he has lost a step and now the Chargers are paying for it because they have no running game and their back up Darren Sproles only weighs about 145 LBS soaking wet.
Overall I don?t believe the Chargers were at their best in this game and it is hard to read how they could?ve responded differently. I do believe that the extra week of rest was more harmful than good because of the timing and rhythm that was lost. It became too much for the San Diego offense and they never looked threatening until deep in the 3rd quarter. Of course some people will look at the kicker and say he is to blame but I disagree. Sure the Chargers would have won the game if he nailed 2 out of 3 but that does not change the complexion of the game. The Jets stayed disciplined and they capitalized on the few chances that they were given. Those Jets have a lot of fight in them and lets see if they can carry it into the Conference playoff game.
The Chargers game was really frustrating to watch and often times I found myself pacing throughout the house just trying to find something else to do. It was fate. I knew that the Chargers had little chance at winning when it was the 4th quarter but this was not the most disturbing part of my weekend. The night game on Saturday was the most annoying game of the weekend. Every time the Ravens had momentum they had it ripped away. I really thought the Ravens going into this contest had a great chance at pulling off the upset. In the beginning of the game all looked well. The Ravens initially held the Colts to 3 points on the opening drive and that was a good start. They followed that up with a 15 play drive of their own but had to settle for a field goal. The next two series on defense were productive for the Ravens D but eventually they broke down at the end of the 2nd quarter. Manning went on a 14 play, 8 minute drive to finish it off with a TD toss to WR Austin Collie. The TD itself wasn?t horrible but the ensuing drive by the Ravens was. The Ravens decided they would try and put points on the board before going into halftime. What they didn?t realize is they were going against a defense that forced them into 4, 3 and outs following their 3-point opening drive. Ouch! If I must explain, the Ravens had the ball with 1:55 to go but failed to execute the smartest game plan. Instead they decided to air it out 3 straight times. On first down Flacco completed a 4-yard pass to Ray Rice and the Colts called their first time out. On 2nd down Flacco threw incomplete and the same on 4th down. This was the 4th, 3 and out of the half for Flacco and Co. With 1:26 left and 2 Time Outs, the Colts managed to run 8 plays and finish the drive with a 3-yard TD pass to WR Reggie Wayne.
Things became worse and worse for the Ravens as they had chances in the 2nd half to tie the game but shot themselves in the foot with penalties. Some of the penalties were really questionable and all of them were at inopportune times. Twice Safety Ed Reed picked off Manning and brought the ball inside the Colts 40-yard line. On one of the plays Reed had the ball stripped by WR Pierre Garcon, and on the chance they called pass interference on the defense, Corey Ivy was the guilty party. Had the Ravens capitalized on those two extremely rare chances, the Ravens would have been right back in the game. The Colts outgained the Ravens by just 14 yards, not very convincing if you?re looking to back the Colts this Sunday.
The Vikings game was the other easy victory on the weekend. The Cowboys came into town with a chip on their shoulder and they were shot down! It was not even close. The Minnesota defense was so over powering that the Cowboys couldn?t pound the rock like they had the last few weeks before. RB?s Felix Jones and Marion Barber were held to just 83 yards on 22 carries. DE Ray Edwards was the difference maker; he finished the day with 5 tackles, all for loss of yardage.
While the Vikes defense was stellar, the same can be said about QB Brett Favre. Favre had his 2nd best post-season game of his career with 234 yards and 4 TD?s. It was Favre?s ability to throw the long ball that kept the Cowboys defense on their heels. In just 4 plays on the 2nd drive of the game Favre hit pro bowl WR Sidney Rice for 47 yards. It was just one of them days for Favre where he could do no wrong, lets see if he can do it again this Sunday!
Seriously, I really thought I was going to go 4-0 this weekend. Saturday started off great with the Saints absolutely demolishing the Cardinals. Half way through the game I was wishing that the Cardinals would pull the plug. It was actually quite heartbreaking to see the Cardinals get banged around like they did. QB Kurt Warner took one of the cheapest shots I had ever seen on a QB. Fortunately, he will live to fight another day but his return for one more season is questionable at best.
This week should be a nail biter with such unique matchups between two defensively minded teams taking on two offensively minded teams. The game I am most concerned about is the NYJ @ Indi matchup. Both of these teams come into this matchup with opposing views. The Colts can air it out, much like we thought the Chargers could, but on the flip side, they rank 1 spot behind the Chargers in their rushing offense and that is dead last in the NFL! Something has to give and I?m not so sure home field advantage will be a factor as the Jets have now won the last two playoff games on the road. Let?s take a look at what this matchup has to offer.
NYJ @ Indi -8 ATS Pick:Jets Rating:
The Jets have now bitten me two weeks in a row, from a betting standpoint. I back picked San Diego early in the week in a teaser along with the Saints. But as the weekend came I started to doubt the Chargers, something didn?t feel right. I even felt that they would start the game slow but pick it up as the game went along. Well they did pick it up, but it was over 3 quarters too late and the Jets were up by 10 points (after scoring 17 unanswered). Kicker Nate Kadeing helped seal the deal by missing his 3rd FG with under 5 minutes remaining; a makeable 40 yard attempt wide right.
The scary thing about this matchup between the Colts and Jets is the Jets are the more well-rounded team. I?m not saying offensively the Jets are better because Sanchez is better than Manning, but when you look at the team as a whole, the Jets are strong at 90% of they key positions. When I analyzed last weeks matchup between the Chargers and Jets I figured the Chargers would squeak out a victory and go on the road and beat the #1 team in the AFC. That?s how strong I thought the Chargers were this season, and for them to get knocked off by the Jets (bad game or not) means something. This is really scary because based on my logic the Jets have the advantage because I felt the Chargers were the strongest team of the 4 AFC teams (Baltimore, Indi, NYJ, San Diego) remaining before the Divisional round.
Now don?t get me wrong. I really like the way the Jets have been playing lately but in no way shape or form am I insinuating (or to seem like, lol) that I intend on seeing an upset. I mean this game is in Indi inside of a dome. These type of weather conditions make it lovely for Peyton. With perfect conditions he will find his open receivers and make plays like he does every Sunday and we shouldn?t expect anything differently; right?
Wrong! When watching Manning throw the ball last week he didn?t look as crisp as he had earlier this season. In fact, the Ravens were able to throw him off for the majority of the game. If it weren?t for the efficiency of the Colts offense they would have come short in that game. The Colts scored 14 points in less than 2 minutes to end the half and in a low scoring game like that, 14 points was all the difference. It was all because of 2 mental breakdowns by the players (giving up a 4th down and 4 at the end of the half) and coaching staff (for calling 3 pass plays with under 2 minutes to play at their own 18).
This game was up for grabs for the first 25 minutes of the game and after that 4th down conversion the Ravens had a mini meltdown and that was enough to slow them down for the rest of the game. The objective of the Ravens was to own the Time of Possession by playing smash mouth football and defend the way they did the week prior against the Patriots.
The Ravens ranked a respectable 5th in rushing offense this season but that was because they have one of the most elusive running backs in the league in Ray Rice. Indi was able to stack the box and shut him down for most of the game. Rice finished the day with 67 yards rushing and 60 yards receiving. Unlike the Ravens, the Jets have multiple backs that can shred a defense on any given play. Just like what the Jets did against the Chargers last week. Shonn Greene took off and ran for a 53-yard Touch Down, a Jets franchise postseason record. This weekend will be a huge task for an offense that is ranked 17th in total offense and doesn?t score a whole lot of points per game (21.8). The same scenario I projected last week with the Chargers pulling away early from the Jets would be the same scenario I would project for this week.
The only difference this time around is that the Jets are ranked #1 in rushing offense and they will have little trouble moving the chains on the Colts 24th ranked rush defense that is giving up 126.5 yards per game. The Jets will most certainly utilize their duel threat in the backfield with Thomas Jones and their new #1 RB Shonn Greene. The duo combined for 169 yards rushing last week and 168 yards the week before. Both defenses were similar to the Colts with the Bengals being the best of the group giving up 18.2 points per game and the Chargers 20 points per game. Indi is right in the middle with 19.2 points per game. The Jets should have similar success in this matchup as they had in their first two. Look for New York?s front 5 to own the line of scrimmage and open up huge holes for the RB?s.
We also have to factor in how evenly these two teams played in the first half of week 16 this season. The Jets were down 9-3 and they scored on the opening kickoff of the 2nd half to make it 10-9. The reality is the Colts have not won any games this season by more than a TD against a defensive team ranked in the top 10. The lone exception was last weeks 20-3 win over Baltimore. Again, that game had so many flaws, bad calls and misfortune, you can toss it out the window. As I mentioned in my 411/Recap, the Ravens were only outgained 270-275 yards but they failed to dominate T.O.P and that along with their multiple TO?s put the game out of reach.
In comparison of QB?s performance last week QB Joe Flacco had 2 turnovers in that game that switched field positioning for the Ravens and QB Mark Sanchez only has 1 INT all post season. The team making the least amount of mistakes right now will win this game. The Jets have been seizing their opportunities and scoring off their opponents mishaps.
If the Colts play mistake free football they will edge the Jets out regardless of how well they play. The Colts have more talent all around on offense than any other team in the league but they must be clicking on all cylinders this Sunday for the team to win by a large margin.
In the end I?m banking on the Colts to make just enough mistakes to allow the Jets to stick around; much like the Bengals and Chargers did. Both the Chargers and the Bengals were first to score in their ball games and both failed to close their games out. The Jets have come from behind in both games by keeping them close and I expect them to put up a similar fight this week.
Like I said earlier, the Chargers were the best team in the AFC and the Jets shut ?em down. Since the Colts are even more 1 dimensional it will be interesting to see whether or not the Jets can shut down Reggie Wayne and Pierre Garcon. So far this post season the Jets have not failed in that department. They shut down Ochocinco in the Wild Card round and they shut down Vincent Jackson in the Divisional round. Darrelle Revis is a beast and he will continue to shut down the opposition?s number 1 go-to guy which in this case is Reggie Wayne.
So having already bet against the Jets twice I?d be a fool not to back them this week. They may not be the most fun team to watch play but they do have the fire and intensity to get another win on the road. There is a possibility that the Colts offense takes over and the Colts win by double digits but I doubt that will happen this Sunday in the AFC Conference title game. Listen guys, the Colts are playing too poorly offensively and the Jets are too good defensively to be catching a touch down in this one.
NOTE: The Colts haven?t beaten a team above .500 during the regular season by more than 8 points with the exception of Arizona back in week 3. On the other hand, the Jets have only lost two games all season by more than 5 points.
Prediction: NYJ 16 Indi 20
Outcome: NYJ Indi
Minn @ NO -4ATS Pick: Minn Rating:
Isn?t it ironic that both of these teams beat their opponents by 31 points in the Divisional round? The Saints crushed the Cardinals 45-14 in the Superdome and the Vikings smashed the over hyped Cowboys 34-3 in the Metrodome. Do you remember the last time both Conference playoff games were being played in a dome? That?s right, weather will not be a factor this season for Favre and his teammates and the same goes for the Manning vs. Sanchez matchup (being played at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis).
The Saints come into this game with a lot riding on the line. The fans of New Orleans desperately want to win a Super Bowl title and this year provides them with their best chance in doing so. However, the Saints are playing one of the toughest well-rounded teams in the league. The Vikings are ranked 10th in the league in total defense and are only yielding 19.5 points per game.
The Vikings also rank an impressive 2nd against the run with two of the best run stoppers in the league. The defenders being Kevin Williams who is playing injured and is listed as questionable this week and Pat Williams who hasn?t seen action since week 15. He will be returning to the lineup this Sunday to face the Saints.
My biggest concern is whether or not DE Ray Edwards is healthy enough to play this Sunday. Edwards had 3 sacks on QB Tony Romo last week and he also had 8 tackles, 5 of them for a loss of yardage. Backup LB Erin Henderson is back from his 4 game suspension that he served for violating the substance abuse policy. His status for the game is he is not expected to play much, if at all. With so many lingering issues with the Vikings defense I believe he will see a few plays. Despite only playing two games all season his presence is still very important. I?m not saying the Vikings won?t have 95% of their starters in on defense I?m just saying players might get dinged up during the game and need a mini breather for a play or two.
All of the injuries won?t matter if the Vikings continue to play as sound defensively as they have. The Vikings were able to shutdown the red hot Cowboys who hung 34 points on the Philadelphia Eagles the week before. The Vikings have been stellar at home this season allowing just 3 teams to score above 10 points. The downside is the Vikings have allowed an average of 20 points or more 6 times on the road this season. However, 3 of their road losses came at week 13 or later where they gave up 30,26, and 36 points. Obviously, they had lost focus at the end of the season and that is the main contributing factor as to why people are doubting the Vikings.
The same can be said about the Saints. The Saints dropped their last 3 games of the season and had given up 20+ points in each of it?s final 5 games to close out the season. Both of these teams showed us last week that those final 5 games have no bearing on how they are playing in the post season. Unlike last weeks NFC Divisional games I highly doubt either team will be laying down in this battle.
The Saints have the home field advantage and that dome gets crazy but the Vikings have the experienced leader behind center and a dominating defense. The question remains whether or not the Vikings will continue to give up massive amounts of points on the road or if this Sunday they lay it all out on the line. Brees could have a field day and pick apart this woeful road defense if the Vikings come in unprepared. Do you really think the Vikings aren?t going to be prepared for this one; road game or not?
Establishing an offensive tone from the start will be key in winning this ball game. If the Vikings defer and have to defend first they will need to do what they did against Dallas. They can bend but can?t break, that will force Drew Brees and Co to settle for Field Goals. I thought the Vikings did a great job shutting down the passing lanes last Sunday and forcing Romo to rush out of the pocket. Romo was sacked (6 times) or hit on almost every pass play. The most important thing in last weeks game was the Vikings pass rush. Based on the stats, Romo had a 100+ passer rating in every game except 1 in his last 6 games (from week 12 on) going into the Minnesota game last weekend. He ended the day with a 66.1 passer rating. 40 points below his average, ouch!!!
The pass rush screwed up Romo?s timing so he was unable to deliver strikes to his WR?s. Instead it took an extra second for him to find his comfort (which he never really did) and by that time the Vikings had already fully penetrated through the Cowboys Offensive line. The same will probably happen this weekend, so you?d better believe Brees and his receivers have been working on shorter routes to lessen the damage of the pass rush. If the Saints can some how stop the rush, they will win this game.
Easier said than done but the Saints do have the number 1 offense in the league. Averaging 31.9 points per game and over 403 yards per game the Saints will look to dominate the game through the air. QB Drew Brees is coming off a 247-yard day with 3 TD?s. The most interesting fact about the game was the impact RB/Return man Reggie Bush had. Bush ran a punt back for a 83-yard TD halfway through the 3rd quarter making it 45-15. He also had 84-yards on 5 carries with a 46-yard TD in the mix. The Saints finished the day with over 160 yards rushing (the Saints are ranked 6th in total offense and average 131.9 yards per game) putting them 30 yards over their average.
Bush has been up and down this season and he has stayed healthy for the most part, something he hasn?t really done since entering the NFL 4 years ago. The question I keep asking myself is whether or not I think the Saints will be able to run the ball. With a heavy dosage of running last Sunday, the Saints owned the T.O.P. They faced the 17th ranked rushing defense then and now they are going up against the leagues 2nd best stop unit. Bush was indeed the ?X? factor last week. I wouldn?t count on a repeat this week!
To me it looks like New Orleans will be airing it out a lot. I don?t like the way the matchup presents itself with the Saints having to throw it against this underrated secondary. Clearly, the public underestimated the ability of the Vikings secondary going into last week. I read many threads with people stating that the Cowboys were too good with their front 5 and that the Vikings would not be able to penetrate the O line.
Evidently they didn?t read about how stout this defense really is. I had based a lot of my logic last Sunday on how well the Vikings played at home. This Sunday will be the true test to see if they can travel on the road and knock off, in my opinion, the other best team in the NFL. I believe that the Super Bowl winner will develop from this matchup in the NFC Conference game between New Orleans and Minnesota. The Vikings deserve it if they can win this big one on the road, and on the other side I feel that the Saints are more than worthy of being awarded the big trophy this year. The Saints have been the team to beat all season and that motto will continue for at least one more week.
This game will be much more interesting to watch than the first game, I can assure you of that. The Jets and Colts game should be a low scoring game with minimal highlights. (Unless you like offensive struggles) The Vikings should have their defense prepared for this contest and I believe the Saints will also give it their all. It will be interesting to watch the type of matchup we have between the Saints offense and the Vikings defense. It should be a battle and I feel that the team that defends well and who can run the rock effectively will win this game. I don?t expect a shootout this weekend but it should be a tighter contest than we saw in last weeks NFC games. Don?t expect a 31-point blowout in New Orleans? but possibly an upset.
I have recommended this play to a few of my buddies already. I am taking the Vikings at +450 (sports.com and bodog.com) to win the Super Bowl. As I mentioned, the value of the small underdog winning this matchup should be good enough to win the Super Bowl. I highly doubt the Vikings or the Saints will be more than 3-point underdogs in the Super Bowl. So my logic is this: if you take them on the ML to win this Sunday for lets say $100 you can win $160 (that is what the Vikings are at most sportsbooks on the money line) If you get that same exact line for the Super Bowl and double your original winnings by $160 you will still come up short of $450; savvy? In actuality you will win another $256 and if you add $160 + $256 you only get $416. So the value is you would win an extra $34 for every $100 that you wager. Not too bad, but make sure that you shop around before placing that wager. I?ve seen the Vikings as low as +$375 to win it all.
Prediction: Minnesota 28 New Orleans 23
Outcome: Minnesota New Orleans
