I had very good success with my game props last year. I?ve included the link below if anyone wants to relive the glory. LOL.
http://www.madjacksports.com/forum/showthread.php?572362-12-REAL-SB-PROPS-NO-BS-GATORADE-or-ANTHEM-CRAP
On to SB 50. I lean under 44 & Denver +5. But more importantly, I feel strongly about the props below. I give some reasoning for each call, and when you string all of these props together, I see a game in which there will be more running than passing, and a game - for better or worse - that Cam Newton puts on his shoulders and makes some big plays but also some mistakes.
My local is honoring all these numbers from the printable list of props from sportsbook.com. Also, scoresandodds.com has a link for it, as well. Obviously, all of us are getting slightly different odds on different props.
GLTA
CAM NEWTON TO THROW FIRST INT +140 (RISK $50 TO WIN $70). I understand PM had a horrible regular season throwing picks left & right, but he hasn?t thrown 1 in the playoffs and I also expect him to be pretty sharp with the extra rest. Meanwhile, Cam is playing his first bowl and facing an elite secondary. I could see an early mistake and we even get plus money.
CAM NEWTON UNDER 19.5 COMPLETIONS (RISK $57.50 TO WIN $50)
He topped this number just 7 times this season. He?s going against the best secondary in football and I think the clear game plan will be to run the ball right at Denver?s pass rushers.
CAM NEWTON OVER 41.5 RUSH YARDS (RISK $110 TO WIN $100). Love this prop. First, he?s run the ball much more in the playoffs. Second, when those edge pass rushers collapse the pocket, Cam is gonna take off up field and ask questions later. Third, and most importantly, this is the final game, there?s no more preserving your body for the season, and above all, Cam wants to to be the Superhero in this game. If his choices are to force a pass to Philly Brown or tuck it and run, which do you think he chooses?
JON STEWART OVER 18.5 RUSH ATTEMPTS (RISK $57.50 TO WIN $50) Again, I think the game plan is going to be run, run, run for CAR. J-Stew has had at least 19 rushes 10 times since CAR bye week.
GREG OLSEN OVER 5.5 CATCHES (RISK $65 TO WIN $50). Let?s face it, CAR has shitty wideouts. Olsen is not as good as Gronk, but he actually runs quicker and crisper routes. When Cam goes to the air, I think Olsen is going to be open quite frequently.
TED GINN OVER 0.5 RUSHES (RISK $50 TO WIN $90). The drop machine did get a rush in both playoff games. Over his career, he?s been pretty successful on those wide runs and it just makes sense that CAR tries to catch DEN aggressive and over-pursuing defense off-guard.
FOZZY WHITAKER OVER 5.5 RUSH + REC YDS (RISK $57.50 TO WIN $50)He topped this total in every game week 13 thru 17. Artis-Payne fumbled in the divisional game and wasn?t even active for the NFC final. J-Stew will get a lot of work and need an occasional breather.
CJ ANDERSON OVER 13.5 RUSH ATTEMPTS (RISK $65 TO WIN $50). DEN will attempt to control the ball on the ground rather than let a fading Manning throw 40 passes. Kubiak finally seems to realize that CJ is better than Hillman.
RONNIE HILLMAN UNDER 11.5 RUSH ATTEMPTS (RISK $57.50 TO WIN $50). See above. Hillman will get some work, but I just don?t see 12 carries. And if this game gets away from the Broncos, he won?t sniff this number.
DEMARYIUS THOMAS OVER 5.5 CATCHES (RISK $57.50 TO WIN $50). This guy has been crap the last few weeks, which is why I love him. He?s an elite talent getting sick and tired of hearing about all his drops of late. He runs more slot routes than Sanders, and Norman almost never plays the slot.
NORWOOD OVER 17.5 REC YARDS (RISK $52 TO WIN $50). He?s a slot receiver who will see a lot of CAR worst defensive backs. Has been gaining PM trust the last month or so.
CAM NEWTON 15 or more RUSH ATTEMPTS +2500 (RISK $50 TO WIN $1250). Definitely a longshot. But if he gets scramble-happy and throw in a few read-option keepers, never know.
J NORWOOD (DEN) +600 (RISK $50 TO WIN $300). Has taken on a larger role during the playoffs. Worth a shot.
http://www.madjacksports.com/forum/showthread.php?572362-12-REAL-SB-PROPS-NO-BS-GATORADE-or-ANTHEM-CRAP
On to SB 50. I lean under 44 & Denver +5. But more importantly, I feel strongly about the props below. I give some reasoning for each call, and when you string all of these props together, I see a game in which there will be more running than passing, and a game - for better or worse - that Cam Newton puts on his shoulders and makes some big plays but also some mistakes.
My local is honoring all these numbers from the printable list of props from sportsbook.com. Also, scoresandodds.com has a link for it, as well. Obviously, all of us are getting slightly different odds on different props.
GLTA
CAM NEWTON TO THROW FIRST INT +140 (RISK $50 TO WIN $70). I understand PM had a horrible regular season throwing picks left & right, but he hasn?t thrown 1 in the playoffs and I also expect him to be pretty sharp with the extra rest. Meanwhile, Cam is playing his first bowl and facing an elite secondary. I could see an early mistake and we even get plus money.
CAM NEWTON UNDER 19.5 COMPLETIONS (RISK $57.50 TO WIN $50)
He topped this number just 7 times this season. He?s going against the best secondary in football and I think the clear game plan will be to run the ball right at Denver?s pass rushers.
CAM NEWTON OVER 41.5 RUSH YARDS (RISK $110 TO WIN $100). Love this prop. First, he?s run the ball much more in the playoffs. Second, when those edge pass rushers collapse the pocket, Cam is gonna take off up field and ask questions later. Third, and most importantly, this is the final game, there?s no more preserving your body for the season, and above all, Cam wants to to be the Superhero in this game. If his choices are to force a pass to Philly Brown or tuck it and run, which do you think he chooses?
JON STEWART OVER 18.5 RUSH ATTEMPTS (RISK $57.50 TO WIN $50) Again, I think the game plan is going to be run, run, run for CAR. J-Stew has had at least 19 rushes 10 times since CAR bye week.
GREG OLSEN OVER 5.5 CATCHES (RISK $65 TO WIN $50). Let?s face it, CAR has shitty wideouts. Olsen is not as good as Gronk, but he actually runs quicker and crisper routes. When Cam goes to the air, I think Olsen is going to be open quite frequently.
TED GINN OVER 0.5 RUSHES (RISK $50 TO WIN $90). The drop machine did get a rush in both playoff games. Over his career, he?s been pretty successful on those wide runs and it just makes sense that CAR tries to catch DEN aggressive and over-pursuing defense off-guard.
FOZZY WHITAKER OVER 5.5 RUSH + REC YDS (RISK $57.50 TO WIN $50)He topped this total in every game week 13 thru 17. Artis-Payne fumbled in the divisional game and wasn?t even active for the NFC final. J-Stew will get a lot of work and need an occasional breather.
CJ ANDERSON OVER 13.5 RUSH ATTEMPTS (RISK $65 TO WIN $50). DEN will attempt to control the ball on the ground rather than let a fading Manning throw 40 passes. Kubiak finally seems to realize that CJ is better than Hillman.
RONNIE HILLMAN UNDER 11.5 RUSH ATTEMPTS (RISK $57.50 TO WIN $50). See above. Hillman will get some work, but I just don?t see 12 carries. And if this game gets away from the Broncos, he won?t sniff this number.
DEMARYIUS THOMAS OVER 5.5 CATCHES (RISK $57.50 TO WIN $50). This guy has been crap the last few weeks, which is why I love him. He?s an elite talent getting sick and tired of hearing about all his drops of late. He runs more slot routes than Sanders, and Norman almost never plays the slot.
NORWOOD OVER 17.5 REC YARDS (RISK $52 TO WIN $50). He?s a slot receiver who will see a lot of CAR worst defensive backs. Has been gaining PM trust the last month or so.
CAM NEWTON 15 or more RUSH ATTEMPTS +2500 (RISK $50 TO WIN $1250). Definitely a longshot. But if he gets scramble-happy and throw in a few read-option keepers, never know.
ANYTIME TD SCORERS (NOT FIRST TD, ANYTIME):
ED DICKSON (CAR) +850 (RISK $50 TO WIN $425). On obvious run plays, Dickson is on the field quite a bit. TE's have success vs. Denver and Olsen will be on their radar already. J NORWOOD (DEN) +600 (RISK $50 TO WIN $300). Has taken on a larger role during the playoffs. Worth a shot.
