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gardenweasel

el guapo
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Jan 10, 2002
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"the bunker"
****after reading a little more info,i`m pulling back on my miami wager....am not as convinced of miami`s mental here after reading some things on the net....and clausen`s record away and as a dog is very good...not to mention the vols record in november....the miami qb situation......to many legit questions to put this one out there for someone to wager hard earned money on.... still think this is an underachieving,albeit talented vol squad....sorry for jumping the gun here,but,after some reflection,it`s not something i can recommend to someone else... .......the final plays and ratings will be set up later in the week...

*note....these plays are not listed in order of preference....will list the rating of plays later in the week...


...navy+10(bought half)..let me start off by saying that notre dame`s schedule is suicidal......i mean,it`s just not fair for any team to play a murderer`s row schedule like this.....practically every team is having a banner year....except notre dame,that is....

..this is a huge game for navy....they attach much more significance to this game than nd....nd does defend the run better than navy....but navy is on a bit of a roll....got caught napping vs delaware....were up 14-0 right away and then fell asleep....but,delaware has been a top notch 1aa team for years...and this year they are really good...

just think 10 is a tad high...expect a dogfight...i wonder how much gas nd has left in the tank.....and how enthused they are to see navy after the fla st debacle....lot`s of ground game here.....


2)kansas st wildcats-17(bought 1)iowa st is 0-8 ATS as a HD vs conf tms. The Cats are 7-3 ATS on the Big 12 road. K-St is 6-2 ATS on grass. . K-St has a huge spec tms edge as they?ve blk?d 6 punts TY while ISU has had 4 blk?d. ISU has avg?d just 65 rush ypg (2.2) in Big 12 play. ISU is allowing 243 ypg passing and almost 200ypg rushing....last 4 isu losses by 46,31,21 and 28.......

3)rice +3.....tulsa is hot...but rice is beginning to crank that ground game up also....kyle herm is really clicking getting 183 yards rushing vs a pretty good nevada run defense.....rice is 15-2 as a home dog......tulsa is improved but still soft vs the run.....


more to come....whether you like it or not....:confused: :D
 
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Spreader

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Jan 26, 2001
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40 years later, NAVY beats ND again. Last time NAVY won vs. ND was in 1963! WoW! The points are a gift. GL!
 

cooz3

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IF ND STOPS NAVY'S GROUND GAME...THEY WILL BE LUCKY TO SCORE 10 POINTS....

AS STATED BY GARDENWEASEL...AS BAD AS ND HAS LOOKED THIER SCHEDULE IS ABSOLUTELY ONE OF THE TOUGHEST IF NOT THE TOUGHEST IN THE NATION....

THIS LINE OPENED AT 11 AND HAS DROPPED AND WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE TO DROP BECAUSE EVERYONE THINKS ND STINKS THIS YEAR...GRANTED THEY ARE NOT A TOP 25 ..BUT IF THEY PLAYED A CUP CAKE SCHEDULE LIKE SOME OF THESE OTHER TEAMS THIER RECORD WOULD BE MUCH..MUCH BETTER...

THAT BEING SAID...I CANT REALLY ARGUE AGAINST TAKING DOUBLE DIGITS AGAINST THIS ND TEAM..I CERTAINLY UNDERSTAND THE REASONING...

WHAT REALLY CONCERNS ME IS THAT THIS NAVY TEAM HAS NOT FACED A DECENT DEFENSE ALL YEAR IN MY OPINION...OR FOR THAT MATTER JUST A DEFENSE THAT WOULD STOP THIER RUN...

THIS IS STILL A TEAM THAT LOST TO RUTGERS BY 21 POINTS...AND AS BAD AS ND IS THIS YEAR ...THEY WILL NEVER BE AS BAD AS RUTGERS..LOL

I REALIZE YOU CANT COMPARE TEAM A TO TEAM B TO ANALYZE A GAME ....BUT THAT GAME REALLY STUCK OUT TO ME AS I WAS CAPPING THIS GAME....

ND IS BEAT UP AND HAS LOOKED TIRED AT TIMES DEFENSIVELY...BUT A ONE DIMENSIONAL TEAM LIKE NAVY MAY BE JUST WHAT THE DOCTOR ORDERED...

GOOD LUCK GUYS..

COOZ
 

gardenweasel

el guapo
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"the bunker"
excellent points.cooz

excellent points.cooz

just think that n.d. is a little banged up and can`t be in a great frame of mind right now.....motivation goes to navy as i understand that they have 3 games remaining and they must win 2 to become bowl eligible(7 wins needed because they have no conference affiliation)........they should beat army but is central michigan a gimme?....i don`t think so...

as the gentleman said,it`s been 40 years since navy had an nd win....they have 3 goals this year....the commander in chief trophy....beat n.d. and a bowl.....i`ll take my chances with the hotter,motivated team and the points.....

nd`s schedule is beyond dispute...they are the better team...parade all americans abound.....but,that doesn`t always take the money....if it did,we`d all be rich...

but,you make valid points,cooz......they could blow navy out....many think 10 is way to low...thanks for the counter-point...
 
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gardenweasel

el guapo
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"the bunker"
adding

adding

leans to....okie st cowboys+4(buy half).....covered 8 of last 10 at home....texas has yielded 15 tds rushing this year compared to 8 all of last year....texas` inexperienced qb young not yet a real efficient passer...like the cowboys balance better.......

kent st+4.....what a revenger this is for the g. flashes.....what was it,50-0 last year?..9 turnovers......cribbs pay back....had a week to get healthy...buffalo put one on ohio a couple weeks back...

purdue-2(half buy).....they absolutely dominated iowa last year....some special teams td`s and a late 95 yard td pass killed them in a game they should have easily won at iowa....they still match up well.....purdue`s solid defense at home should handle iowa`s unspectacular offense....purdue bounced back nicely after the michigan debacle...a closer look at the stats shows that michigan`s offense wasn`t really dominating the purdue defense in the loss........

*am looking at home dogs pitt+5 and northwestern+5...haven`t pulled the trigger ..
 
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Ndfan

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A lot of people seem to be on Navy and I can see why. My first thought that came to mind was this year Navy has a lagitimant chance of beating Notre Dame as this is one of Navy's better teams in a long time, and I would for sure play Navy plus the points. Looking more in depth into this game Notre Dame has the toughest schedual in the country hands down, there is no arguing this. Navy has played nobody and beaten nobody, but Air Force. Navy relies on their running game to beat people, but they have faced opponents that just aren't as physical and athletic as Notre Dame. Navy's pass game is worse than Notre Dame's which is hard to imagine. Notre Dame has beaten Washington State and Pittsburgh. Notre Dame's rush defense is very respectable at 32 in the nation considering who they have faced. Will Nd slow down Navy's rushing attack? I don't know, but if they don't Nd will have a long day. In order to beat nd you have to be able to throw the ball which ever team has been able to do. Which Navy can't do. The big question is will Navy be able to run on Notre Dame? Nd clearly has the better athletes and has played top teams. I think this will be a good game and if Notre Dame can run the ball and control the game they will win and cover. If Navy takes a lead and makes some big plays they will win. Notre Dame just doesn't have the offense to play from behind.

Final prediction
Nd will contain the Navy rushing game, and Nd will finally get a win with Julias Jones having a good game and Brady Quinn being able to face a defense much softer than he has seen and throw some TD's.

Navy 17
ND 31
 

gardenweasel

el guapo
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the plays thus far

the plays thus far

upper tier

boilermakers-2(buy half)... vs iowa
wildcats-17(-130)...... vs iowa st
golden flashes+4.... vs ohio

lower tier

owls+3.... vs tulsa

cowboys+4(buy half)..... vs texas

middies+10(buy half).... vs notre dame....hear alot of talk about n.d.having to many athletes....gonna take out their frustrations etc....they defend the run well....navy doesn`t..but,most of their opponents weren`t predominantly running teams...wash st...mich st...pitt....fla st(130 rypg)...the only real dominant rushing team nd has played is michigan and that`s a very balanced offense...

navy`s seen tcu...rice....air force....delaware(don`t laugh...a very powerful div 1aa club that beats many div 1a teams if given the opportunity)....i know strength of schedule is one-sided...

n.d.`s struggling...navy`s playing very well...a "motivation and inertia" play.....could get blown out...i`ll take the 10 and take my chances...


leans...
the cardinal+3..... vs az st

the wildcats+7(buy one)... vs penn st

the huskies-16(buy half).... vs az

the the cougars-9(buy half)... vs ucla

canes-11(bought)....................i know every tout and angle favor tennessee....i think this is a bad tenn club that for some strange reason can`t run despite the talent...or stop the run...miami defense to dominate...imo....

leans all very small...g.l.
 
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cooz3

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good luck this weekend....

be careful with that purdue game....picks are EXTREMELY one sided right now ....IOWA is solid...

again best of luck

cooz
 

gardenweasel

el guapo
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Jan 10, 2002
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thanks,cooz

thanks,cooz

a toughie...i expect this game to resemble iowa`s away games vs mich st(20-10) and ohio st(19-10)...therefore,i see two fairly stagnant offenses..... adding under 40....

also adding small plays on.... the tigers-7(-130) over ole miss and that small def line.......and blazers-13......also small plays on the buffaloes+5 and the bulldogs-20...
 
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gardenweasel

el guapo
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Jan 10, 2002
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63
"the bunker"
i`ll take it

i`ll take it

3-0 on top tier plays......1-1-1 on 2nd tier.....5-5 split on leans



9-6-1 overall.....hitting the 3 big wagers......

feeling good...hope everybody did well......g.l. tomorrow...;)
 
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