With a little over a month and a half to the start of the World Cup, it's time to kick this thread into some solid action.
What I'd love to see happen is a host of us Madjackers contribute some real solid 'capping info that help us all win over the month-long tournament. Instead of just posting plays, let's try and collate as much useful info as we can directly related towards BETTING AND WINNING.
Most of us who come in here will know many of the players of the elite sides. So let's see what we can find out about the lesser lights - who will inevitably provide us with the value bets. And let's look at past events - US codes are full of stats on trends that can assist 'capping. Have such avenues been fully explored at tournaments like the World Cup? I'd like to wager that they haven't!
There will be plenty of action to be had - let's get on the smart, winning side.
I'll throw up a few thoughts and ideas to kick off things and want as much feedback as possible.
Futures:
Outright winner - Let's face it; an underdog doesn't win the World Cup. There will be no equivalent of the Patriots winning the final in Japan. That doesn't mean you won't get good odds on the winner - at least two DD sides have appeal to me as a possible play (can you guess who?). But I don't believe there's much point in looking outside the top 8 prices - someone may like to convince me otherwise. Much more on this market to follow...
Golden Boot - I had Centrebet's odds land on my desk at work this arvo and even given a cursory glance, two plays leapt out at me here - Thierry Henry (France) 9-1 and Michael Owen (England) 14-1.
Henry has proved in the English premier league in recent seasons his pedigree as a goal thief, and backed that up at Euro 2000. His price is nice for a favourite even allowing for a very open field. The winner usually comes from a team that goes a long way in the tournament - more games, more chances to score - and the defending champs certainly pass that test. One small drawback may be the possibility that Henry may be used often out wide instead of the central striker role he was converted to by Arsene Wenger at the mighty Gunners
Owen has his downside - injury question-marks and the possibility that England may not make it through a very tough group. But look who's priced at 17-1 - his likely striking partner Emile Heskey!! Try and tell me that there's only $3 difference between those two in goalscoring ability!
Both Henry and Owen have working in their favour the fact that they are first-choices - many of the other top Golden Boot contenders are in sides that have a range of options up front - eg Brazil (Rivaldo, Ronaldo, Ronaldinho, Romario?, anyone else whose name in Brazil starts with R..., Ralpho, RAYMONDO ), Argentina (Crespo, Batistuta, Saviola, Lopez).
Another good guide is who their teams play in Group play - a particularly weak opponent present the chance of a hat-trick, which can be the deciding factor in the Golden Boot as goals are hard to come by at this level - no Just Fontaine record broken in 2002 I'd say.
Group Winners - Another possible source of revenue? I will track back thru previous events to confirm a hunch on this one that there will be value in some underdog group winners. At an initial glance, the following teams and prices have distinct appeal - Ireland +350 Group E; Paraguay +350 Group B, Japan +200 Group H.
Hope to be back soon with more thoughts on these, head-to-head matchups and overs/unders.
Please, anyone who wants to be part of the following two months of fun leap in boots and all.
What I'd love to see happen is a host of us Madjackers contribute some real solid 'capping info that help us all win over the month-long tournament. Instead of just posting plays, let's try and collate as much useful info as we can directly related towards BETTING AND WINNING.
Most of us who come in here will know many of the players of the elite sides. So let's see what we can find out about the lesser lights - who will inevitably provide us with the value bets. And let's look at past events - US codes are full of stats on trends that can assist 'capping. Have such avenues been fully explored at tournaments like the World Cup? I'd like to wager that they haven't!
There will be plenty of action to be had - let's get on the smart, winning side.
I'll throw up a few thoughts and ideas to kick off things and want as much feedback as possible.
Futures:
Outright winner - Let's face it; an underdog doesn't win the World Cup. There will be no equivalent of the Patriots winning the final in Japan. That doesn't mean you won't get good odds on the winner - at least two DD sides have appeal to me as a possible play (can you guess who?). But I don't believe there's much point in looking outside the top 8 prices - someone may like to convince me otherwise. Much more on this market to follow...
Golden Boot - I had Centrebet's odds land on my desk at work this arvo and even given a cursory glance, two plays leapt out at me here - Thierry Henry (France) 9-1 and Michael Owen (England) 14-1.
Henry has proved in the English premier league in recent seasons his pedigree as a goal thief, and backed that up at Euro 2000. His price is nice for a favourite even allowing for a very open field. The winner usually comes from a team that goes a long way in the tournament - more games, more chances to score - and the defending champs certainly pass that test. One small drawback may be the possibility that Henry may be used often out wide instead of the central striker role he was converted to by Arsene Wenger at the mighty Gunners
Owen has his downside - injury question-marks and the possibility that England may not make it through a very tough group. But look who's priced at 17-1 - his likely striking partner Emile Heskey!! Try and tell me that there's only $3 difference between those two in goalscoring ability!
Both Henry and Owen have working in their favour the fact that they are first-choices - many of the other top Golden Boot contenders are in sides that have a range of options up front - eg Brazil (Rivaldo, Ronaldo, Ronaldinho, Romario?, anyone else whose name in Brazil starts with R..., Ralpho, RAYMONDO
), Argentina (Crespo, Batistuta, Saviola, Lopez).Another good guide is who their teams play in Group play - a particularly weak opponent present the chance of a hat-trick, which can be the deciding factor in the Golden Boot as goals are hard to come by at this level - no Just Fontaine record broken in 2002 I'd say.
Group Winners - Another possible source of revenue? I will track back thru previous events to confirm a hunch on this one that there will be value in some underdog group winners. At an initial glance, the following teams and prices have distinct appeal - Ireland +350 Group E; Paraguay +350 Group B, Japan +200 Group H.
Hope to be back soon with more thoughts on these, head-to-head matchups and overs/unders.
Please, anyone who wants to be part of the following two months of fun leap in boots and all.
