2012 Belmont Stakes Contenders ? Updated June 8, 2012
by belmont.org
The Belmont Stakes changed completely on Friday morning with the shocking withdrawal of I?ll Have Another. Belmont Stakes is still a big event and should be a very entertaining race. Here?s the rundown of the Belmont Stakes contenders:
I?LL HAVE ANOTHER (SCRATCH): The undisputed star of this year?s Belmont Stakes, I?ll Have Another closed strong to win both the Kentucky Derby and the Preakness Stakes. Unfortunately, he won?t get a chance to challenge for the Triple Crown. On Friday morning trainer Doug O?Neill made the shocking announcement that I?ll Have Another had suffered a tendon injury and was not only out of the race but will be retired to stud. I?ll Have Another becomes the 12th horse since 1977 to win the Kentucky Derby and Preakness and not complete the Triple Crown.
ATIGUN (Post Position 4?Morning Line Odds 15-1): Trained by Ken McPeak, Atigun could be a three year old reaching his prime just in time for this race. Hasn?t competed since an 11th place finish in the Rebel Stakes in March. Before that posted a 5th place finish in the Arkansas Derby. Broke his maiden in January in an optional claiming race at Churchill Downs. Reportedly looked excellent on the dirt track at Belmont in a workout on Saturday, covering four furlongs in :46 3/5.
DULLAHAN (Post Position 5?Morning Line Odds 7-2): Coming off an impressive third place performance in the Kentucky Derby?and he almost caught Bodemeister for the #2 slot. Helped downplay concerns that he may have peaked early beating Hansen in the Bluegrass Stakes. Best performances have been on turf and poly surfaces, though hitting the board in the Kentucky Derby dispelled concerns about his ability to run on dirt. Might be a better horse than originally thought and should be able to handle the distance at Belmont. Passed on the Preakness and targeted the Belmont Stakes thinking the rest and longer distance should work in his favor. Will have a new jockey for the Belmont?Kent Desormeaux is out after his failed Breathalyzer test at Pimlico and will be replaced by Ramon Dominguez. Has to be happy with Post Position 5?14 Belmont winners have started from the 5 hole, tied for second post of any starting slot. With the scratch of I?ll Have Another he becomes the race favorite.
GUYANA STAR DWEEJ (Post Position 8?Morning Line Odds 30-1): Lots of in the money finishes in MSW and claiming races, coming off a 2nd in an allowance race at Belmont Park in late April. Who knows what the deal with this horse is? Many observers suggest that Guyana Star Dweej is a ?jewel in the rough? that could become a solid contender with better training. Passed on the Preakness to target this race at a Belmont track he?s comfortable on. Realistically he?s in over his head against superior talent and unlikely to finish in the money. Reportedly suffered a minor leg injury before the Preakness. The only probable Belmont contender without a jockey assignment at this writing which doesn?t bode well. Kent Desormeaux?who was slated to ride Dullahan before his failed Breathalyzer test at Pimlico?has picked up this mount. Willie Shoemaker could come back from the dead and it wouldn?t help.
OPTIMIZER (Post Position 10?Morning Line Odds 15-1): Not sure what Optimizer is doing here. Other than a good trainer in D. Wayne Lukas there?s little to recommend about this horse who doesn?t seem to have the stamina to go a mile and a half. Only win is his maiden race at Saratoga against a forgettable class. Best finish since then was a second place performance in the Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park. He cashed a nice ?place? ticket at 28/1 but followed that up with a brutal showing in the Arkansas Derby finishing 9th. This was the race that vaulted Bodemeister to ?favorite? status and Optimizer was barely in the same zip code finishing 20 lengths behind the winner. Barely made the field and did so only due to withdrawals by horses with higher graded stakes winnings. Given the way he tired on the 1 1/8 mile in Arkansas and finished 11h in the Kentucky Derby hard to see him as a contender in the Belmont. Coming off a 6th place finish in the Preakness. Doesn?t look to be a good fit for the distance and the three race in five weeks scheduling won?t help. Lack of endurance means he gets very little benefit from I?ll Have Another?s absence.
PAYNTER (Post Position 9?Morning Line Odds 7-2: With Bodemeister out of the race Bob Baffert turned his attention to Paynter who impressed with an easy win in an allowance race on the Preakness undercard. It?s a big step up in competitive class going from that to a Grade 1 race but Paynter has become a trendy choice among experts and railbirds alike. Good chance of finishing in the money and an outside chance of pulling the huge upset and winning the race. Paynter?s stock continues to rise as the race draws near and with I?ll Have Another out of the race many experts like him to win.
RAVELLO?S BOY (Post Position 6?Morning Line Odds 30-1): Ravello?s Boy finished a troubled 5th in the Tampa Bay Derby in his last outing but has done a lot of training at Belmont and has looked good. On the basis of that, his connections have decided to give him a shot in the big race. Trained by Manny Azpurua he?ll have Alex Solis aboard on race day. Based on his past performances he?s unlikely to be a factor but will command a big price should he hit the board.
STREET LIFE (Post Position 1?Morning Line Odds 8-1): Drawing comparisons to Bodemeister but once you get past his racing background?both started their racing career as a three year old and were lightly raced heading into their big stakes debut?that?s a bit of a stretch. Still, Street Life is drawing some attention from handicappers and admittedly does have the perfect racing style for the Belmont. Unlike Bodemeister, Street Life is a stalker/closer who?ll hang back until late in the race. Trainer Chad Brown suggests that that longer the race goes the better his horse gets and if that?s true he could be scary at the 1 ? mile Belmont distance. Worth noting that 23 Belmont winners have started in the #1 position?the most of any starting slot. Like most three year olds in this race ability to handle the distance is a big question mark but like his tendency to come from off the pace.
UNION RAGS (Post Position 3?Morning Line Odds 3-1): Union Rags the second favorite entry on Churchill Downs oddsmaker Mike Bataglia?s morning line. Until recently he was a strong choice of most horse racing experts as well. That was before what is largely regarded as a disastrous run in the Florida Derby on March 31. The race was supposed to be a ?coronation? of Union Rags as the horse to beat in the Kentucky Derby and his betting odds of 2-5 definitely reflected that. Unfortunately it didn?t work out that way?the race didn?t ?break? in his favor and he got a rare bad ride from jockey Julien Leparoux and Union Rags was upset by Take Charge Indy.
The significance of Union Rags? Florida Derby performance is now one of the most hotly debated topics in horse racing. There is a growing sentiment among the cognoscenti that Union Rags was merely the victim of a bad trip and poor ride and his failure to win did nothing to downgrade his status as Kentucky Derby contender. His good but not great 7th place finish in the Kentucky Derby did little to clarify the muddled picture. Jockey for the Belmont also up in the air. Union Rags getting more respect with I?ll Have Another out of the picture and he?ll likely set the pace early. Hard to see him being able to maintain it for 1 ? mile.
