207' is Too High

[eztds]

T-wolves came out flat and K G got no help from his supporting cast. Could tell with those 6 turnovers in the first 6 minutes......it was going to be a long night.

K G was totally flustered as he couldn't jam a golf ball through the hoop last night.

I'm ready to move on. Let's look at the Mavs/Nuggs game. Don't you think the linesmen may be catching up with this "clockwork" Mavs OVER the total?

Why a line of 207' tonight when:

-The last two games between these two look like this:

Nov. 8 (with Finley) 105-91

&

Jan. 8 (without Finley) 95-94

-Neither of the previous games woulda covered 197! That's 10 and a "hook" less than they're ask'n for tonight.

-Both line ups are very similar to the the last game played on Jan. 8th in Dallas. The Mavs really struggled in 2H and pulled out a 1 pt. win on a BIG Dirk 3 pointer to end the game.

-Another factor pointing me toward the under is Nash's defensive play. The guy is containing the opponent's playmakers as evidenced by his last two outings:

Monday vs. Nets Kidd<-----1 of 17

&

Tuesday vs. Rockets Francis<----9 of 23

*Now those are numbers to put an astrisk next to!

-I just think in the thin air of Denver this total looks a bit high....even for the run and gun Mavs!

-Big Dirk will get his points tonight......he's on a roll scoring: 25, 39, 34, 32 & 40 in the Mavs last 5 wins.

-I'm counting on Nash containing Van Exel and a lower scoring affair tonight as the Mavs win by more than 7.

-That -7 line looks to me like the linesmen want you on Denver.....so I'll go the other way on that one.

Play'n--->Mavs/Nuggs at under 207'

&

Play'n--->Mavs -7


dnugs I'd appreciate your reaction to my thoughts......or for that matter anybody with a comment.....PLS chime in.

AFTER LAST NIGHT......I'M ALL EARS!

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0-3...LN

T-wolves/Pistons over 1H L

T-wolves/Pritons over game L

T-wolves -4 L

*Just one of those forgetable kinda nights!


65-42-2...YTD ez

 

[Dragon]

8 out of the last 9 meetings between the Mavs/Nuggets have gone under the total. Denver is a team that relies on Nick Van Exel to carry the load. He often tends to struggle a bit in the 1st half and usually gets it going in the 2nd half. If he has an off night all around, Denver might not even score 90 points against the very generous Dallas D. The number seems very high but we are talking about Dallas here. They put up points on EVERYONE and give up points to EVERYONE. Denver is a tough team at home and are 9-3 ATS against teams .500 or better. If Denver keeps it close, I think the game still goes over. If it's a blowout, then I think the game goes under.

Date Home Away Line ATS
1/8/2002 Dal. 95 Den. 94 -10/201 Den./U
11/8/2001 Dal. 105 Den. 91 -12/202 Dal./U
1/27/2001 Den. 102 Dal. 100 -3/208 Dal./U
1/20/2001 Dal. 97 Den. 79 -6.5/211 Dal./U
11/25/2000 Dal. 108 Den. 84 -8/198 Dal./U
11/6/2000 Den. 96 Dal. 108 -1/N Dal./-
4/6/2000 Den. 115 Dal. 116 -3.5/207.5 Dal./O
2/26/2000 Dal. 98 Den. 96 -5/205 Den./U
1/29/2000 Dal. 107 Den. 96 -6.5/209 Dal./U
1/4/2000 Den. 98 Dal. 96 -6/210 Dal./U

If you look at past history, the UNDER rules, although most of the totals were very high, much like today's.

Right now, I lean under. I think Denver has a let down after a big win against the Lakers. Dallas should blow them out here and get their 100 plus. I don't think Denver scores more then 95.

 

[eztds]

adding Mem/Port Over

adding Mem/Port Over

over the total of 190'. Jason Williams is back tonight and this team was scoring well without him or Battier in the line up on this west coast trip.

With Williams I think we get this game over 190'. ez

 

[ClubFoot]

Just wanted to wish you luck tonight!! Sorry that I gave you a bum steer with recommending the side in that T'wolves game yesterday.

 

[vanbasten]

ez,

great info on this total. i couldn't get a read on it myself. every time i play under in a dallas game it goes through the roof. so, i'm lettin you post it and i'm playing it.

good luck.

 

[Houston]

Trap?

Trap?

I'm working on a computer program to predict totals and one thing I noticed the other day is that lately high totals have gone over. So far this year there have been 15 games with a line over 202. 12 have gone over.

MOst of them have involved high scorers such as Dal, Orl, or Sac and I dont really like needing this many points out of Denver, but the books aren't in the business of losing money and this sure looks like they are wanting people to jump on the under.

 

[eztds]

Thanks for the comments guys........

Thanks for the comments guys........

that's why I love MJ's!

-Club no problem.......T-wolves had an off night. Hey, it happens.....just have a short memory and find another play with potential.

-Van, I know what ya mean. Dallas games are a score-a-rama. It's almost like your "tempting fate" to play a Mavs under!

-Houston....here's my point of veiw:

How long are the books going to keep letting this Mavs "over" train roll before they derail it?

In the last 10 Mavs games......8 have went over.

Don't you think Vegas is eventually going to compensate and put up higher lines than the Mavs AND their opponents can consistently go over?

Will tonight be that night?

I think it has some probabilties against this Nuggets team.

Are they statistically significant probablities at the .05 level??? Heck, who knows....but....read what you just wrote........"I don't really like needing this many points out of Denver."

Call it like you see it Houston and hope for the best. That's all any of us can do.

Dialogue and capp'n is why were in here.....my friend. Well done....you made me stop and ponder your opinion....I like that.

THANKS for your thoughts and hope mine were of equal value to you! ez

 

[Houston]

Re: Thanks for the comments guys........

Re: Thanks for the comments guys........

[Dialogue and capp'n is why were in here.....my friend.

Yep. I'll be rooting for the under for you as I am staying away from this one!

 

[dnuggets]

Denver gives dallas problems, theres a handful of teams that denver gives problems too for whatever reason and dallas is one. Denver almost never gets run on there homecourt id be SHOCKED if they lost by 8 or more, as far as the total denver now has 4 guys who can score, nick of course, lenard who wasnt playing when issel was here, raef is either great or awful and tonight id say he has a shot at great as there inside def. is horrible, and posey who has confidence now because evans has finally convinced him to shoot. Id never bet an under with dallas id either bet the over or pass myself, but i really dont think dallas runs away from denver here.

good luck

 

[eztds]

Value your opinion dnugs.....

Value your opinion dnugs.....

It might be just tempting fate to play this under....but....Denver sure took the Mavs outa their 2H offense during the Jan.8 game at Dallas.

I am a little concerned about the line moving from -7 this morning to its current level of -4'.

Will stick it out and see what materializes.

Thanks for your take.....dnuggs. ez

 

[eztds]

Same ACT.....Part II

Same ACT.....Part II

Jordan with 24 of the Wiz 48 pts.

Wipe out Whitneys and his 3 three pointers and the next high scoring Wizard is Haywood with 6!

Man, nobody but MJ can score on this Wiz team.

Reason the Wiz falter 2H is MJ runs outa gas and there is on Rip to carry on!

Play'n the Cavs +4' 2H

Play'n the Under 92 Cavs/Wiz 2H

GL ez

 

[Dragon]

ez-

Nice call on the Mavs UNDER! Keep it up man!

 

[eztds]

Hey bro......

Hey bro......

It was as much your's as anybody's......all one has to do is scroll up a few posts and see your contribution. Great work and congrats to YOU.

Man, it's the teamwork that makes this place work!

Woulda been upset about my Mavs -7 "push"......but grabbed equal units of Dallas at -3 2H and got my "slice -of-the-pie" after all. Just took a little extra work to get it done.

Look forward to ride'n shotgun with ya on another one real soon partner.

The teamwork makes this stuff FUN! ez

 

[Roger]

nice hit on that under ez...

 

[dnuggets]

Thats why they call him ez money...you need a new book there were a million 5's and 6's out there and 4's before tip....

 

[eztds]

Roger......

Roger......

your comment was humbly appreciated. You're one of the solid cappers at MJ's who's post I ALWAYS study carefully.

PLS keep up the fine work. Anyone who's not using your plays as a "capp'n barometer".......is going to find themselves under unnecessary "clouds of doubt"!

I was undecided on last night's Clev/Wash under....until you made it a play. Captured some $ because of you....THANKS Roger.

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dnugs......wish'n you woulda been "SHOCKED" last night and the Nuggets woulda lost by "8". I took that -7 very early in the day......shoulda waited as I actually saw it as low as -4 at my book last night!

--------------------------------------------------

However, that brings up a GREAT question.......How do ya know when to take a line and how do ya know when to wait?????

Are there any fast rules to live by or is it just a "gut feeling" kinda thing as to when to "pull-the-trigger" on plays????

Frequently, the line you get at the time you create a ticket makes ALL the difference in the world. Everyone wants to obtain the best line on a play they possibly can.

Then, the filp-side of that is......ya ALWAYS start second guessing and doubting plays (even to the point of canceling them) when it appears Vegas is "help'n" ya out a little to much.

Even worse......a play can start taking on the looks of a (and I hate the term) "public" play to the point it becomes a "no" play.

Last night's Griz/Blazers line is a perfect example: I got concerned about play'n the Griz when it jumped to +14' and saw that Antonio wisely made it a no play after line movement.

To me, that just another tool Vegas linesmen have to "mess with your mind"! There's probably no GOOD answer to these questions......but I'd sure like to know more about the art of......WHEN TO ACCEPT THE LINE ON PLAYS????

Ya can capp your tail off....only to find that ya took a "bum" line (too early or too late) and ALL WAS FOR NOTTA.

That's FRUSTRATING...but that's what VEGAS wants...FRUSTRATED players trying to get back up.

It's just another ADVANTAGE for Vegas.....at every twist and turn!

Guess that's why Vegas can afford the "BRIGHT LIGHTS AND GLITZ".......and why successful capp'n is VERY HARD WORK.

Thanks to EVERYBODY at Madjacks taking the time to share their HARD WORK......you guys are the BEST! ez

 

[Guerilla_Ninja]

a day late... (although) not a dollar short.

ez, i always enjoy you're writeups and i'm glad the DAL "hit" came in for ya. i was not too excited about yesterdays NBA card so, i passed on even throwing out opinions. instead, made my way to the local riverboat and played some 10-20 hold'em for 4-5 hours. that brought me a good positive $.

looking forward to your post today!