3 steps to winning in NCAAF

TIME TO MAKE $$$

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This is a great article I came across... FWIW



Betting college football is fun. Betting college football can also be lucrative. To insure you have a winning season, you should have a plan in place before the season begins.

Though I could discuss at length the benefits of a number of approaches, here I will simply focus on three tips that you can use through the course of the season to get the edge on the Vegas lines. By following only these three simple tips, you will be well on your way to making sure this year is a winner:

1. Do your research
How simple is this? But it is so often overlooked. Research is essential, imperative, crucial, of utmost importance, etc...

You should not be laying money on a play you know nothing about!

Begin your research reading the preseason magazines. Watch the games on Saturday, check the stats online, make sure you pay attention to the nonsense points and yards racked up in the 4th quarter when the team had their starters pulled, and so forth.

This is such a common error among "rookie" bettors I cannot stress it enough. It is entirely too common to see folks drop cash on someone else's "lock" or "sure-thing" and end the day frustrated when they are down.

You must know the teams you bet. You need to understand that a strong passing team won't play well in windy weather. You need to realize that a finesse running team is fundamentally different than a power rushing team. You must know when the score is indicative of the type of game played and when it is not(Michigan at Washington last year is a good example). And on and on.

To reiterate, know who you bet. Analyze strengths and weaknesses. Look at the game fundamentals and go on something more than a hunch. If you don't have the time to do at least a minimal analysis, you shouldn't be putting cash on the line. If you refuse to listen to this logic please consider getting a service subscription of some sort to get the analysis and information you need to keep from losing your rear. (Check Sportsmonitor for details and accurate reports on each service.


2. Manage your money wisely
If you are still with me following that tirade you probalby are bright enough to avoid a losing season this year. Losers aren't stupid people, they just make common errors and refuse to bet and "play" responsibly.

Money management is essential to a winning season. Suffice to say, I have nowhere near the time necessary to get into the nuances of a solid money management theory here, but please be aware you should have some simple and workable management strategy in place before the opening day kick-off.

Though a simple strategy is all that is necessary, more people fail here than anywhere else. You only need 52.5% winners to make money over the course of a season, but too many people play stupid. They win games one and two during the day and double up their evening bet losing all of the previous winnings.

Come up with a plan and a system that works for you. Wager only the amount that the plan dictates. For example, at the beginning of the season determine your bank roll for the year. (I'll use 10K as it is an easy round number, but use whatever you like (and can afford to lose).) Pick a certain number of games each week to wager (maybe 5-7, this will depend on your research and available time). Rank the games from 1-5. Bet one unit (percent of your bank available) per point ranked. So if you bet OSU over Michigan as a "two" rank, you would bet $200 or two units. If you felt more confident, you would bet up to $500 or if less as low as $100. (Working with a smaller roll of $1,000 you could drop a zero and bet from $10 - 50).

Realize you will have up weeks and down weeks. But stick to your system. You will end up on the wrong side of things if you begin doubling up your bets to catch up and chasing big money on useless futures or unwinnibale multi-team parlays.

3. Look for great line value
This tip takes a bit of time, but it is well worth it for the gambler who is playing a whole season.

Make sure you have multiple books. Check the lines at each. Oftentimes you'll find three or four with the same line but the fifth or sixth has a half going either way. Using these lines and finding this value can strengthen your position and win you a few "bonus" games throughout the year.

In addition to finding value with multiple books, you can find great value by being an expert on smaller teams that are not well followed. Lines are nearly right on and have little value when #1 Florida State faces unbeaten #3 Miami, but who is watching the MAC, the WAC, or the MWC? Hardly anyone. Even in bigger conferences, many of the lowly teams (Okie State, Kansas, Minnesota, etc...) don't get the respect they deserve and the lines can be great for someone with the knowledge to capitalize.

In Conclusion:
Have a great season. Think, act, and win. Do not act on impulse and do not chase your bets. Everyone with a bit of smarts and patience can win at college football betting, it just takes the dedication to do the jobe right.
 

hellah10

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Oct 24, 2001
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Re: 3 steps to winning in NCAAF

TIME TO MAKE $$$ said:
You should not be laying money on a play you know nothing about!

That would be me betting on North Texas last year :eek:
 

taoist

The Sage
Forum Member
Re: 3 steps to winning in NCAAF

TTM$$ - this is a great article for folks, esp. anyone trying to learn about betting CFB. << pay attention >>

TIME TO MAKE $$$ said:
You only need 52.5% winners to make money over the course of a season, but too many people play stupid.

...this is the only point on which I disagree. You gotz to shop around, ya know? If you've got yer work done earlier in the week, you can take atvantage of earlier lines and, at some different books, shorter lines. Getting -107 or -108 could make your "break-even percentage" drop from the normal 52.38% normally associated with the 10% juice to a slightly lower winning percentage....

TIME TO MAKE $$$ said:
3. Look for great line value
This tip takes a bit of time, but it is well worth it for the gambler who is playing a whole season.

Make sure you have multiple books. Check the lines at each. Oftentimes you'll find three or four with the same line but the fifth or sixth has a half going either way. Using these lines and finding this value can strengthen your position and win you a few "bonus" games throughout the year.

In addition to finding value with multiple books, you can find great value by being an expert on smaller teams that are not well followed. Lines are nearly right on and have little value when #1 Florida State faces unbeaten #3 Miami, but who is watching the MAC, the WAC, or the MWC? Hardly anyone. Even in bigger conferences, many of the lowly teams (Okie State, Kansas, Minnesota, etc...) don't get the respect they deserve and the lines can be great for someone with the knowledge to capitalize.

...but I would have to put this as number one!!! ...smaller conferences equals lesser known information, lesser interest and more mistakes by the bookmakers. Obviously everyone is free to play what ya will, but the line value gets skewed more on college games than in the NFL...and more on these smaller conferences than it does on the larger ones.... If you're one that likes to watch line movements, the "wiseguys" live in the "unmined" games of the MAC, Big West, WAC, etc.... ;)

...good article, TTM$$. :D
 
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