Jack told me there was a problem updating the free picks pages so here is my update for today. No baseball plays yet, but I may post something closer to game time.
-Nick
4/19/02 Update
Starting 2002 bankroll: $15,000
Current 2002 bankroll: $12,479
2002 Record: 83-117, -$2,521
This month: 10-19, -$3,141
This week (starts on Monday): 1-3, -$1040
**********
2001-2002 NHL Record: 80-100, -271
2001-2002 NBA Record: 63-74, +6521
2002 MLB Record: 4-11, -2366
Yesterday: PASS
I have no plays for now, though I may add something later. There are a few baseball games I am looking at and one possible NHL play tonight.
I wrote up a column below about hedging. With the NHL and NBA playoffs upon us with their series wagers and baseball going as a sport that tends to induce a lot of parlay action, I thought it was a topic people might have interest in. Check it out below when you have a few minutes. Good luck.
4/19 MLB Plays: PENDING
4/19 NBA Plays: PASS
4/19 NHL Plays: PENDING
Played 3/1/02: San Jose to win the Stanley Cup 15:1 -- 100/1500
Played 1/31/02: Vancouver to win the Stanley Cup 75:1 -- 100/7500
HEDGING BETS
It is a relatively standard occurance that some gambler seeking advice will post a question in the Message Forum asking about possible tactics for a hedge. Generally it entails a large parlay (five or six teams) that needs only one more hit for the miracle win. The person asks if they should hedge and how much they should hedge and why.
For a disciplined handicapper (a person more disciplined than I, admittedly) such a question should almost never come up. Large parlays are generally sucker bets so gamblers shouldn't be betting them to begin with. But we all know everyone loves to throw down a relatively small wager on the long shot from time to time, so rather than avoiding the issue, let's look at it.
There are two basic schools of thought when it comes to hedging: Should I ensure my profit or should I evaluate each bet independently of all others when looking for value?
It really is an argument as old as time; short term vs. long term. Locking up a short term profit is the safe move, both financially and psychologically. The financial reason is obvious, but the psychological benefit may be even greater because everyone knows how frustrating it is to watch a possible huge profit be washed away into a small loss.
Of course, the problem with this safe approach is that one has to wonder; if you aren't psychologically strong or interested in financial risk, then what are you doing betting sports in the first place?
If one chooses to view long term profits as the only measure of success in sports handicapping, the the best logical approach to hedging is to only make the hedge if the hedge bet is determined to have value independently. Eschewing all psychological or short term financial issues, a true handicapper makes wagers solely based on the value of each bet. Therefore, if one determined that there was value in the last bet of a six team parlay, it doesn't make a whole lot of sense to hedge against that last game.
Series bets, of course, are another matter. A series bet placed before game 1 often has a different look than a single game played several days or a week into the series. In addition, prices on series plays often change dramatically as the series moves along, so there may be strong plays found on the opposite side of what was played earlier.
Let's get a bit more specific. Say you made a series bet and it looks promising. Or you bet a dog for the series and the series reaches the last game. Is it prudent to place a single game wager as a form of a hedge in a series bet?
Again, the pure logical approach says to only place a straight bet as a hedge on a series wager if the straight bet would be worthy of a wager on its own. But let's toss that aside for a moment and look at it.
I believe that straight bets as hedges on series wagers really aren't a good idea until late in the series. Hedging after one or two games of a series often sabotages the profit on a one-sided series. We all know of stories of teams coming back from down one or two games to win, but it is generally more common for the team that jumps out to the early lead in the series to wrap things up eventually.
In my opinion, hedges on series wagers shuold be evaluated as individual games in the first three games or so of a series. Basically just leave the series wager alone until the series gets at least four or five games deep. If the team you bet on as a series play sits one game from elimination, sometimes it may be smart to bet the other team.
Really, there are a multitude of ways to deal with hedging but there is one principle that is often forgotten: every bet counts. Every dollar risked on a wager counts, so the only way to make money long term is through maintaining the discipline to make smart wagers with your money.
Before making large wagers to ensure a profit on a large parlay or on a futures or series bet, remember that those dollars that you might be throwing away to feel safe in your hedge count just as much as any other bet you ever make. Making hedge plays because there is legitimate value in the other side is a smart bet that wraps up profit, but playing hedges just to stay away from high risk games often proves foolish long term.
**********
PENDING:
2001-2002 UEFA Champions League Record: 2-5, -235
PAST PERFORMANCE:
Final 2001 NFL Record: 51-44, +773
Final 2001 NFLX Record: 5-6, -315
Final 2001 MLB Record: 145-165, +3946
-Nick
4/19/02 Update
Starting 2002 bankroll: $15,000
Current 2002 bankroll: $12,479
2002 Record: 83-117, -$2,521
This month: 10-19, -$3,141
This week (starts on Monday): 1-3, -$1040
**********
2001-2002 NHL Record: 80-100, -271
2001-2002 NBA Record: 63-74, +6521
2002 MLB Record: 4-11, -2366
Yesterday: PASS
I have no plays for now, though I may add something later. There are a few baseball games I am looking at and one possible NHL play tonight.
I wrote up a column below about hedging. With the NHL and NBA playoffs upon us with their series wagers and baseball going as a sport that tends to induce a lot of parlay action, I thought it was a topic people might have interest in. Check it out below when you have a few minutes. Good luck.
4/19 MLB Plays: PENDING
4/19 NBA Plays: PASS
4/19 NHL Plays: PENDING
Played 3/1/02: San Jose to win the Stanley Cup 15:1 -- 100/1500
Played 1/31/02: Vancouver to win the Stanley Cup 75:1 -- 100/7500
HEDGING BETS
It is a relatively standard occurance that some gambler seeking advice will post a question in the Message Forum asking about possible tactics for a hedge. Generally it entails a large parlay (five or six teams) that needs only one more hit for the miracle win. The person asks if they should hedge and how much they should hedge and why.
For a disciplined handicapper (a person more disciplined than I, admittedly) such a question should almost never come up. Large parlays are generally sucker bets so gamblers shouldn't be betting them to begin with. But we all know everyone loves to throw down a relatively small wager on the long shot from time to time, so rather than avoiding the issue, let's look at it.
There are two basic schools of thought when it comes to hedging: Should I ensure my profit or should I evaluate each bet independently of all others when looking for value?
It really is an argument as old as time; short term vs. long term. Locking up a short term profit is the safe move, both financially and psychologically. The financial reason is obvious, but the psychological benefit may be even greater because everyone knows how frustrating it is to watch a possible huge profit be washed away into a small loss.
Of course, the problem with this safe approach is that one has to wonder; if you aren't psychologically strong or interested in financial risk, then what are you doing betting sports in the first place?
If one chooses to view long term profits as the only measure of success in sports handicapping, the the best logical approach to hedging is to only make the hedge if the hedge bet is determined to have value independently. Eschewing all psychological or short term financial issues, a true handicapper makes wagers solely based on the value of each bet. Therefore, if one determined that there was value in the last bet of a six team parlay, it doesn't make a whole lot of sense to hedge against that last game.
Series bets, of course, are another matter. A series bet placed before game 1 often has a different look than a single game played several days or a week into the series. In addition, prices on series plays often change dramatically as the series moves along, so there may be strong plays found on the opposite side of what was played earlier.
Let's get a bit more specific. Say you made a series bet and it looks promising. Or you bet a dog for the series and the series reaches the last game. Is it prudent to place a single game wager as a form of a hedge in a series bet?
Again, the pure logical approach says to only place a straight bet as a hedge on a series wager if the straight bet would be worthy of a wager on its own. But let's toss that aside for a moment and look at it.
I believe that straight bets as hedges on series wagers really aren't a good idea until late in the series. Hedging after one or two games of a series often sabotages the profit on a one-sided series. We all know of stories of teams coming back from down one or two games to win, but it is generally more common for the team that jumps out to the early lead in the series to wrap things up eventually.
In my opinion, hedges on series wagers shuold be evaluated as individual games in the first three games or so of a series. Basically just leave the series wager alone until the series gets at least four or five games deep. If the team you bet on as a series play sits one game from elimination, sometimes it may be smart to bet the other team.
Really, there are a multitude of ways to deal with hedging but there is one principle that is often forgotten: every bet counts. Every dollar risked on a wager counts, so the only way to make money long term is through maintaining the discipline to make smart wagers with your money.
Before making large wagers to ensure a profit on a large parlay or on a futures or series bet, remember that those dollars that you might be throwing away to feel safe in your hedge count just as much as any other bet you ever make. Making hedge plays because there is legitimate value in the other side is a smart bet that wraps up profit, but playing hedges just to stay away from high risk games often proves foolish long term.
**********
PENDING:
2001-2002 UEFA Champions League Record: 2-5, -235
PAST PERFORMANCE:
Final 2001 NFL Record: 51-44, +773
Final 2001 NFLX Record: 5-6, -315
Final 2001 MLB Record: 145-165, +3946
