Houston at St.Louis......1:40 PM EST
---------------------------------------------
4 units Houston(+110)
We have two teams going in opposite directions today as the hot Astros visit the struggling Cardinals in St.Louis.
On the mound we have rookie Redding for Houston and veteran Hermanson for St.Louis. At first glance this matchup appears to favour the Cards when looking at bare numbers as Redding is 3-0 with an ERA of 6.26 while Dusty is 7-8 with an ERA of 4.87, but a closer look reveals a lot more.........
Redding is 3-0 with a high ERA but in limited innings so the number is not that relevant. He has held 3 of his last 4 opponents to 3 ER or less. In the minors this year, he went 11-2 with a sparkling 2.03 ERA in 15 starts so we know this guy can pitch. And here is a very key point...Houston has won all 5 of his starts!
On the other hand, Hermanson is just 2-7 for his last 11 starts and is 3-3 LT vs Houston with an inflated 6.61 ERA. St.Louis has lost 3 of his last 4 home starts, 4 of his last 6 at home, 7 of his last 10 at home, 4 of his last 6 overall, and 7 of his last 10 overall. You get the picture....the team doen't win behind him.
When looking at bullpens, Houston again comes up smelling like roses. In all of Redding's starts this year, the Astro pen has a superb 1.45 ERA in 18.2 IP, and they have a nice 2.57 ERA in the last 5 games overall. Closer Wagner is on fire, converting his last 17 straight save opportunities and has given up only 1 ER in his last 16.1 IP. On the flip side, the Cards pen has a bloated 6.53 ERA in Hermanson's starts TY and a bad 5.82 ERA in the Cards last 10 games overall.
St.Louis is 37-35 in all decisions vs righties but they score a full half run less vs RHS (4.4) than vs LHS (5.0). Houston is 19-9 on the road vs RHS and 26-13 on the road in all decisions vs righties.
Both teams are 6-4 in their last 10, but that comparison pales with a closer look. The Cards are 6-4 with those 10 games broken down into 3 vs Houston, 3 vs Minnesota(.586 winning percent) and 4 vs Pittsburgh and Detroit (.392 and .443 WP). On the other hand the Astros are 6-4 in their L10 with those games against much toughter opposition.....3 vs St.Louis, and the other 7 against Cleveland and the Cubs (.582 and .582 WP).
Houston is actually 10-2 in their last 12 road games, and 13-7 in their 20 overall, so this is a hot team. St.Louis is 5-5 in their last 10 at home, 10-10 in their last 20 at home, and 9-11 in their last 20 overall so this is a struggling team. They have lost 3 of their last 4, scoring 1 run or less in 3 of those 4 and have actually scored exactly 1 run in their last 20 innings.
Everything I look at points to a Housotn victory this afternoon, and we are getting them as a dog to boot, so I'm making it a rare 4 unit play.
4 units Houston(+110)
Good luck out there today,
Tiger
---------------------------------------------
4 units Houston(+110)
We have two teams going in opposite directions today as the hot Astros visit the struggling Cardinals in St.Louis.
On the mound we have rookie Redding for Houston and veteran Hermanson for St.Louis. At first glance this matchup appears to favour the Cards when looking at bare numbers as Redding is 3-0 with an ERA of 6.26 while Dusty is 7-8 with an ERA of 4.87, but a closer look reveals a lot more.........
Redding is 3-0 with a high ERA but in limited innings so the number is not that relevant. He has held 3 of his last 4 opponents to 3 ER or less. In the minors this year, he went 11-2 with a sparkling 2.03 ERA in 15 starts so we know this guy can pitch. And here is a very key point...Houston has won all 5 of his starts!
On the other hand, Hermanson is just 2-7 for his last 11 starts and is 3-3 LT vs Houston with an inflated 6.61 ERA. St.Louis has lost 3 of his last 4 home starts, 4 of his last 6 at home, 7 of his last 10 at home, 4 of his last 6 overall, and 7 of his last 10 overall. You get the picture....the team doen't win behind him.
When looking at bullpens, Houston again comes up smelling like roses. In all of Redding's starts this year, the Astro pen has a superb 1.45 ERA in 18.2 IP, and they have a nice 2.57 ERA in the last 5 games overall. Closer Wagner is on fire, converting his last 17 straight save opportunities and has given up only 1 ER in his last 16.1 IP. On the flip side, the Cards pen has a bloated 6.53 ERA in Hermanson's starts TY and a bad 5.82 ERA in the Cards last 10 games overall.
St.Louis is 37-35 in all decisions vs righties but they score a full half run less vs RHS (4.4) than vs LHS (5.0). Houston is 19-9 on the road vs RHS and 26-13 on the road in all decisions vs righties.
Both teams are 6-4 in their last 10, but that comparison pales with a closer look. The Cards are 6-4 with those 10 games broken down into 3 vs Houston, 3 vs Minnesota(.586 winning percent) and 4 vs Pittsburgh and Detroit (.392 and .443 WP). On the other hand the Astros are 6-4 in their L10 with those games against much toughter opposition.....3 vs St.Louis, and the other 7 against Cleveland and the Cubs (.582 and .582 WP).
Houston is actually 10-2 in their last 12 road games, and 13-7 in their 20 overall, so this is a hot team. St.Louis is 5-5 in their last 10 at home, 10-10 in their last 20 at home, and 9-11 in their last 20 overall so this is a struggling team. They have lost 3 of their last 4, scoring 1 run or less in 3 of those 4 and have actually scored exactly 1 run in their last 20 innings.
Everything I look at points to a Housotn victory this afternoon, and we are getting them as a dog to boot, so I'm making it a rare 4 unit play.
4 units Houston(+110)
Good luck out there today,
Tiger
