Cincinnati at Houston..........8:05 EST
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The Play: 4 Units on Cincinnati(+142)
Yes, I'm breaking an unwritten gambling rule here by betting on a team that has lost 4 games in a row.....the Reds. But,as always, let's have a closer look at this game................
Cincinnati has lost their last 4, and are just 2-8 in their last 10, BUT look who they have been facing. Six of those 10 games were against powerhouse Arizona who have now tied Atlanta for the best record in the National League. And yes, the Reds faced Randy Johnson twice and Curt Schilling once in those games, so the level of competition has been extremely tough for Cinci. In the 4 non-Diamondback games over the last 10, they split a 4 game series with these Houston Astros.
On the other hand, the Astros are 6-4 in their last 10, but again, let's have a closer look. Other than the already mentioned 4 games split with Cinci, they played the lowly Chicago Cubs (2nd worst record in the NL) a whopping 6 times. Hmmmmmm.
More team comparisons reveal that Cincinnati is a not bad 31-31 on the road and a solid 35-25 vs the Central Division. Houston is 36-26 at home and 41-33 vs the Central.
OK, let's have a look at tonight's starters. Bob Estes goes for the Reds and Pete Munro takes the hill for Houston. The veteran Estes will never be confused with a Cy Young winner, but gives you a full effort every time out. He is a nice and tidy 4-2 lifetime in 10 starts vs Houston with a fine 2.70 ERA. He is 3-0 with 2 ND in his last 5 starts
against the Stros. He faced Houston last time out and gave up just 1 run in 7.2 IP. His WHIP ratio is 1.50, a little higher than I'd like, but he'll keep you in the game.
Munro sits at 3-2 on the season with a good 2.59 ERA, but in limited action.........this will be his first start since August 13th. His season WHIP is a very good 1.25,but remember that includes only 48.2 IP. Over his last 3, it is much higher at 1.62, which actually mirrors his career number of 1.60.
The Reds are a solid 52-48 vs RHS, while Houston is just 9-9 vs LHS. Cinci scores much more vs RHS(Munro) at 4.72 runs/gm than vs LHS at 4.19. Houston is the opposite, scoring 4.11 vs LHS (Estes) than against RHS(5.01)
Onto the bullpens and we see that Cincinnati has better numbers YTD with 1.26 WHIP vs 1.36 for Houston. Over each teams last 3 games, neither team has done well, but the Reds still are better at 1.74 to 1.90.
Houston's closer, Wagner, has a very good WHIP at 1.05 YTD, but he has struggled lately with a 6.00 ERA in his last 3 and I've never liked his GB/FB ratio of 49.0%/51.0%, especially in the park he pitches in half of the time.
Cincinnati's closer, Graves, has a higher WHIP at 1.26 YTD, but has a much better GB/FB ratio at 61.1%/38.9%.
Houston does have a better defence than Cinci, but all of the other key team stats that I look at are either very close or favor the Reds.............stolen bases, homeruns, BA, OBA, team ERA.
I think this line is skewed due to the Reds record over the last 10 games, but I think they match up very well in this one tonight and pay a generous +142 to boot.
The Play Again
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4 units on Cincinnati(+142)
Good luck out there tonight,
Tiger
-----------------------------------------------
The Play: 4 Units on Cincinnati(+142)
Yes, I'm breaking an unwritten gambling rule here by betting on a team that has lost 4 games in a row.....the Reds. But,as always, let's have a closer look at this game................
Cincinnati has lost their last 4, and are just 2-8 in their last 10, BUT look who they have been facing. Six of those 10 games were against powerhouse Arizona who have now tied Atlanta for the best record in the National League. And yes, the Reds faced Randy Johnson twice and Curt Schilling once in those games, so the level of competition has been extremely tough for Cinci. In the 4 non-Diamondback games over the last 10, they split a 4 game series with these Houston Astros.
On the other hand, the Astros are 6-4 in their last 10, but again, let's have a closer look. Other than the already mentioned 4 games split with Cinci, they played the lowly Chicago Cubs (2nd worst record in the NL) a whopping 6 times. Hmmmmmm.
More team comparisons reveal that Cincinnati is a not bad 31-31 on the road and a solid 35-25 vs the Central Division. Houston is 36-26 at home and 41-33 vs the Central.
OK, let's have a look at tonight's starters. Bob Estes goes for the Reds and Pete Munro takes the hill for Houston. The veteran Estes will never be confused with a Cy Young winner, but gives you a full effort every time out. He is a nice and tidy 4-2 lifetime in 10 starts vs Houston with a fine 2.70 ERA. He is 3-0 with 2 ND in his last 5 starts
against the Stros. He faced Houston last time out and gave up just 1 run in 7.2 IP. His WHIP ratio is 1.50, a little higher than I'd like, but he'll keep you in the game.
Munro sits at 3-2 on the season with a good 2.59 ERA, but in limited action.........this will be his first start since August 13th. His season WHIP is a very good 1.25,but remember that includes only 48.2 IP. Over his last 3, it is much higher at 1.62, which actually mirrors his career number of 1.60.
The Reds are a solid 52-48 vs RHS, while Houston is just 9-9 vs LHS. Cinci scores much more vs RHS(Munro) at 4.72 runs/gm than vs LHS at 4.19. Houston is the opposite, scoring 4.11 vs LHS (Estes) than against RHS(5.01)
Onto the bullpens and we see that Cincinnati has better numbers YTD with 1.26 WHIP vs 1.36 for Houston. Over each teams last 3 games, neither team has done well, but the Reds still are better at 1.74 to 1.90.
Houston's closer, Wagner, has a very good WHIP at 1.05 YTD, but he has struggled lately with a 6.00 ERA in his last 3 and I've never liked his GB/FB ratio of 49.0%/51.0%, especially in the park he pitches in half of the time.
Cincinnati's closer, Graves, has a higher WHIP at 1.26 YTD, but has a much better GB/FB ratio at 61.1%/38.9%.
Houston does have a better defence than Cinci, but all of the other key team stats that I look at are either very close or favor the Reds.............stolen bases, homeruns, BA, OBA, team ERA.
I think this line is skewed due to the Reds record over the last 10 games, but I think they match up very well in this one tonight and pay a generous +142 to boot.
The Play Again
----------------
4 units on Cincinnati(+142)
Good luck out there tonight,
Tiger
