40+ point favorites

BobbyBlueChip

BobbyBlueChip

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This is the results of 40+ point faves for the past 6 years. Somebody posted these results last year (Valuist, I think). Also with the margin of victory being taken out of the BCS Computer equation, conventional wisdom would state that the dogs of 40+ would have even more value (not that conventional wisdom always works in handicapping)

Year/Favorite/Dog/Spread/Result/Fav ATS Result
1996 Penn State N. Illinois -46 49-0 W
1996 Florida SW Louisiana -41 55-21 L
1996 Florida Vanderbilt -43 28-21 L
1996 Tennessee UNLV -53.5 62-3 W
1996 Auburn NE Louisiana -41 28-24 L
1996 Nebraska Missouri -50 51-7 L
1996 Nebraska Iowa State -40 49-14 L
1996 Florida State Wake Forest -48.5 44-7 L
1996 Notre Dame Rutgers -41 62-0 W

1996 Record 3-6 33.33%

1997 Arizona State New Mexico State -41 41-10 L
1997 Florida Central Michigan -43 82-6 W
1997 LSU Akron -42 56-0 W
1997 Miami Arkansas State -41 42-10 L
1997 Nebraska Akron -58 59-14 L
1997 Nebraska UCF -43.5 38-24 L
1997 Nebraska Iowa State -44 77-14 W
1997 VaTech Arkansas State -40 50-0 W
1997 Washington State SW Louisiana -46 77-7 W
1997 Wisconsin Boise State -40 28-24 L

1997 Record 5-5 50.0%

1998 Florida NE Louisiana -44 42-10 L
1998 Kansas State N. Illinois -48.5 73-7 W
1998 Kansas State NE Louisiana -45 62-7 W
1998 LSU Arkansas State -43 42-6 L
1998 Nebraska UAB -47 38-7 L
1998 Syracuse Rutgers -41 70-14 W
1998 Syracuse Cincinnati -42.5 63-21 L
1998 Tennessee UAB -42 37-13 L

1998 Record 3-5 37.5%

1999 Arizona MTSU -44 34-19 L
1999 Florida State Duke -40 51-23 L
1999 Marshall Buffalo -44 59-3 W
1999 Miami Florida A&M -40 57-3 W
1999 Ohio State Ohio -43 40-16 L
1999 Penn State Akron -45.5 70-24 W
1999 Virginia Buffalo -49 50-21 L

1999 Record 3-4 42.86%

2000 Florida Ball State -45 40-19 L
2000 Florida State Duke -48 63-14 W
2000 Florida State Wake Forest -48 35-6 L
2000 Kansas State Ball State -46 76-0 W
2000 Kansas State North Texas -51.5 55-10 L
2000 Marshall Buffalo -43.5 47-14 L
2000 Miami LaTech -40.5 42-31 L
2000 Nebraska Iowa -41.5 42-13 L
2000 Nebraska San Jose State -49.5 49-13 L
2000 Nebraska Baylor -47 59-0 W
2000 Purdue Kent State -43 45-10 L
2000 Syracuse Buffalo -43 63-7 W
2000 Texas UL Lafayette -46.5 52-10 L
2000 Texas Baylor -41 48-14 L

2000 Record 4-10 28.57%

2001 Florida UL Monroe -56 55-6 L
2001 Miami Rutgers -44 61-0 W
2001 Miami Troy State -50 38-7 L
2001 Miami Temple -42 38-0 L
2001 Nebraska Troy State -49 42-14 L
2001 Oklahoma North Texas -41 37-10 L
2001 VaTech Uconn -49 52-10 L

2001 Record 1-6 14.29%

Overall Record (Last 6 Years) 19-36 34.54%
 
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I

IE

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good stuff BBC, interesting to highlight also, as tempting as it may be to a investor...it makes no sense to tease these big dogs either.

thanks for the numbers.
 
V

Valuist

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Bobby-

Yeah, I did post the angle. The numbers are best for over 40 pt faves but was still very solid at 35 pt chalks and up (around 58% or so). I think when a team is favored by 41 pts and they win by 32, the pollsters don't hold it against them. I know Troy State covered on this angle against both Miami and Nebraska last season.
 
J

JEFF

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Good info Bobby. Like I said, I stand corrected on it not being a consistent money maker ... but I still wouldnt fawk with Dook against FSU, eve getting a boatload of points :D
 
N

NY Reb

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Nice work

Nice work

Very informative. Thank you. I feel even better about taking Duke +45.5. In fact, I even included them in a 4-team teaser, taking Ole Miss -14, NCState +8, South Carolina -9, and Duke +51.5. I know these are hard to hit, but I feel fairly confident about this one.
 
BobbyBlueChip

BobbyBlueChip

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Update for 2002 numbers

Year/Favorite/Dog/Spread/Result/Fav ATS Result
2002 Tennessee Rutgers -41 35-14 L
2002 Florida Ohio -41.5 34-6 L
2002 Oklahoma UTEP -43 68-0 W
2002 Texas Baylor -40 41-0 W
2002 FloridaSt. Duke -44.5 48-17 L
2002 VaTech Rutgers -40.5 35-14 L
2002 Miami UConn -43.5 48-14 L

2002 Record 2-5 28.15%


Overall Record (Last 7 Years) 21-41 33.87%
 
J

JEFF

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I guess if you are trying to reap the benfits of this system, you have to bet against every 40 pt fave, which would mean going against Miami.

That said, I don't know how anyone could take ECU this weekend. I wouldn't bet a dirty sock on them.


Miami may not cover, but they also have a good shot of being up 40 by halftime. That ECU team may be the worst in DI so far this year and they are dead last in rushing yards allowed, something like 360 per game.
 
BobbyBlueChip

BobbyBlueChip

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Update for 2003 numbers

Year/Favorite/Dog/Spread/Result/Fav ATS Result
2003 Oklahoma Baylor -53 41-3 L
2003 Kansas State Baylor -40.5 38-10 L
2003 Miami (Fla) E.Carolina -41 38-3 L
2003 Boise State UTEP -40.5 51-21 L

2003 Record 0-4 0.00 %

Overall Record for 40+ point favs (Last 8 Years) 21-45 31.81%
 
D

Devil Dog

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There is seldom any line value when laying over 4 TDs.
And really this is about" line value ." Of course our passion comes into play.
Best Wishes
Devil Dog
 
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