4th of July MLB

MattRegaw

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May 28, 2009
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Saturday Afternoon Baseball

The fourth of July gives us more than just hot dog contests to bet on this afternoon there is a full slate of MLB action!

Seattle +198

Has anyone paid attention to Seattle lately? They are playing some good baseball and have won 4 out of 6 on the road against LA, NY, and Boston. Olson?s numbers are a bit deceiving, he has a high ERA of over 6 in his last three but his WHIP is just .098. Combine that with a 3-0 road record and you have a decent starter. Penny has been a good pick up for the sox but he is just 2-2 in day games and the Red Sox pen has struggled mightily lately. Mariners are 10-2 in their last 12 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game and the Red Sox are 1-4 in their last 5 vs. American League West.

White Sox / Royals Over 8.5

The White sox are red hot right now and they are getting it done with pitching and with timely hitting. Floyd has pitched well in his last three but he is just 3-3 with an ERA of almost 6 on the road so I look for a correction in his recent performance today. The over is 6-2 on those games he started on the road and in his last two games at KC he has allowed 11 runs. Hochevar is in the same boat with his recent performance, and his problem is his K/BB ratio. At home this year he has walked more people than he has struck out. Over is 13-5 in Floyds last 18 starts vs. American League Central and the Over is 12-5 in Royals last 17 home games vs. a right-handed starter. Finally there is an over umpire behind the plate and the over is 11-4-2 in McClellands last 17 games behind home plate. This game should be filled with plenty of offensive fireworks.

Cubs -155

Don?t look now but here come the Cubbies. They have won four out of five and making a push at the right time in the season. Harden will go today and although he has struggled in day games he does well against the Brewers. He has allowed just 1 earned in each of his three starts. The Brewers are not hitting in the clutch and the Cubs are taking advantage of it. The Cubs are 13-7 in game three of a series and 7-1 after a win. Brewers are 0-8 in their last 8 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600 and the Cubs are 9-2 in their last 11 games as a favorite

Reds -110
The Reds lost a painful game last night after coming out to a big lead. Dusty may walk Pujols with the bases load today if he comes up in that spot. The Reds will score more runs today with Thompson going for the red birds. He is 1-2 in his last three with an ERA over 6 and the Cards are just giving him 3 per game in support. The Reds start Micha Owings and will get an extra bat in the lineup as this pitcher can hit too. Home team is 10-4 in Cederstroms last 14 games behind home plate and the Reds are 11-5 in their last 16 home games vs. a team with a winning road record

Play Against
Road teams with a money line of -100 to -150 (ST LOUIS)
with a starting pitcher whose gives up 5.5 or less hits/start, starting a pitcher who walked <=1 hitters each of his last 2 outings

77-50 over the last 5 seasons.
60.6% (37.1 units)


~Matt
 

MattRegaw

Registered User
Forum Member
May 28, 2009
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Mets +128

Moyer is in trouble and his career is near over he always has a very bad inning and if the Mets can jump on him early then this is a nice price.
Phillies are 1-7 in their last 8 home games vs. a team with a losing road record and they are 1-8 in their last 9 games vs. a right-handed starter.

Play Against
Home teams with a money line of -100 to -150 (Philly)
good power team - averaging 1.25 or more HR's/game on the season against opponent excellent speed team - averaging 1 or more SB's/game on the season

115-86 since 1997.
57.2% (46.2 units)

Detroit +122

The Tigers get a very nice price here as a live dog.Liriano is just 1-4 at home this year and has allowed 14 runs combined in his last three home starts. Jackson has been a pleasant surprise for the Tigers and has allowed 3 earned or less in his last ten starts. Zumaya will not be in use today but Jackson will eat enough innings.Tigers are 7-3 in Jacksons last 10 starts and the Twins are 1-7 in Lirianos last 8 starts as a favorite.


Play Against
All teams with a money line of -100 to -150 (Twins)
excellent fielding team - averaging <=0.5 errors/game on the season against opponent with a hot starting pitcher- WHIP <= 1.100 over his last 10 games

61-36 over the last 5 seasons.
62.9% (31.9 units)


~Matt
 
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