7/23 MLB Plays

[Nick Douglas]

Five for today. Good luck, all. Any questions or comments in this thread are always welcome and I will try to reply to all of them.

Philadelphia +105 over CUBS 300/315

Posted earlier in the message forum.

FLORIDA +155 over Atlanta 300/465

Mainly I am playing the hotter team here. Florida has won 4 straight while Atlanta is struggling to score runs. The middle of the lineup for Florida is hitting well and they just saw Glavine 5 days ago, so that should give them a slight edge. With Nunez in the bullpen the Marlins have been much better there as well.

CINCINNATI -125 over Pittsburgh 375/300

Certainly it is a risk to play against such a hot team. Wells has seen his form fall off a bit lately, while Haynes continues to be adequate. The Pirates bullpen has actually been overused a bit outside of Williams. Reds have their key guys in the bullpen ready, and they have a hot hitting Griffey as well. With Casey back in the lineup facing a righthander the Reds have a good edge tonight.

Milwaukee +175 over Houston 200/350

My handicapping gives Milwaukee as a play, but since I have lost betting them two days in a row, I am lowering my bet amount to $200. Brewers again came back from an early deficit yesterday, a sign of a team ready to bust out. Munro will not go long and with the Houston bullpen coming off a lot of innings the past five days this is a great spot for the Brewers. A lot depends on Wright having good control and with rumors having him on the trading block, I think he will.

WHITE SOX -130 over Minnesota 390/300

Beuhrle has an absolutely dominant history against the Twins. This also fits the revenge angle of a team giving up 10 or more runs coming back strong the next day. Inaddition I like the fact that Chicago didn't give up yesterday and they scored runs late in the game. Santana was rocked in his last start as well.

 

[Spock]

good luck Nick

I hope Philly gets to Clement as u said as I have the Over.

 

[Theboundbook]

Nick,

If and when game 1 of Bos is over and Bos rocks them for 12+ runs, would you then think of taking T.B. on game 2 or tomorrow? based on the 'getting rocked by 10' theory. Do you have a place I can goto to check these stats or do you have some?

 

[Nick Douglas]

I don't like the idea of doing it in the same day. I don't have stats on that angle, it is only something I have used because I saw that it has been hitting lately.

 

[Theboundbook]

I understand. No way I am going against Bos today. TB's bullpen is going to be beat. Went with RL on game 2. Thanks for the info Nick.

 

[Nick Douglas]

You're very welcome. Best of luck with that play.

 

[thelawguy]

Nick, I see you are on the Fish. I really like ATL in this one. Do you think the prior blister problem may have some effect on Glavine? Atl clearly the superior team. They have got to be motivated after yesterday's loss. I agree that they are stuggling somewhat offensively, but with Tavarez on the mound, that might just be the help they need.

 

[Spock]

mebbe Under is the WTG .. ?

 

[thelawguy]

The under scares me here. I think Fish can get 3 runs...maybe one-two off Glavine and another in the bull pen. I like Atl to hit Tav hard...6-7 runs, very possible. I would be wary on the under.:nono:

 

[Spock]

since Atl screwed me am stayin away from them as much as I can for a while till I get the bad karma out of the system.

thanx for the view lawguy

 

[thelawguy]

If this game ends up FLA 1 ATL 0, we will both be pissed!!

The Dodgers have been my "Atlanta" in the second half. Geez...teams like Milwaukee, Chicago and Colorado need to get their sorry asses to LA while the gettin' is good. :thefinger

 

[Nick Douglas]

I just have noticed the Braves going through a real cold spell offensively while the Marlins seem to be getting hits at the times they need them to get enough runs to win lately. More a play on that than anything to do with Glavine's blister.

 

[gecko]

Agree that the Marlins can keep it close or even win outright. Glavine's last few starts have been less than stellar. Julian Tavarez, after giving up early runs to the Braves in his last start, really settled down and kept his team in the game the rest of the way. FLA +1.5

GL.

 

[thelawguy]

I think I'll stay with Glavine's Nat. League leading (is that right?) ERA and 1.42 ERA against these fisheys this year. Tavarez, on the other hand, has a nice 5.40 ERA in 5 inn. against the Braves this year. Tavarez has been hit by ust about everyone....with a nice Nat league ERA over 6. I hope you are looking at more than recent "clutch" hitting by FLA to pick this one.......

Then, again, what the hell do I know??

 

[thelawguy]

ATLANTA GONE FISHING................

5-0 in 5th.

 

[gecko]

:nono: