Sunday, September 7, 2003
This Week?s Record: 6-2, +390
Current MLB Record: 45-69, -2458
Current Bundesliga Record: 1-1, -6
Current Premier League Record, 1-1, +29
Current NCAA Football Record: 1-1, -150
Current NFL Record: 1-0, +50
TODAY?S UPDATE:
Buy back day.
I am quite sure that ?buy back? are probably the last two words someone who has been following my plays all week wants to hear heading into the first Sunday of the NFL regular season, but hey, I?m here to make money, not satisfy cravings for action.
This has been a very solid week for baseball and I?ve had nice winners on small wagers in football. Though I am still short of my $500 weekly goal, that goal was based on wagering up to $500 per day. Most days have had more like $100 to $200 in total exposure. I can?t really expect to keep a $500 weekly goal on only $100 to $200 of daily exposure. All things considered, $390 for this week is very solid and I don?t feel like exposing another $400+ on one day of NFL action.
The bottom line is that I have bought back my three earlier posted NFL plays, giving me a loss of $35 on those games. If somehow the Packers win by 5 or the Browns win by 1, that number could change. The only active plays I will have is a moneyline play on the Bears and an action play on the Sunday nighter.
The Bears moneyline play is something I?d like to discuss. Those who have read my page for a long time know that I used to play almost exclusively underdog moneylines in all sports. In fact, it was a very profitable strategy for quite some time. I have since drifted from that strategy and today I find that most of my plays have favorite prices even higher than the standard -110. When I looked over the card initially, Bears +7 didn?t strike me all that much. Local media reports on the game from Chicago over the last couple of days have given me more insight however. I was thinking of taking +6 1/2 or +7 with higher juice as those are currently available prices, but I opted for the moneyline instead. It seems to me the Bears have put together a very solid team, and when I looked at coaching history and such their moneyline really is the strongest play of the week.
My advice to gamblers, as always, is to have fun with your own plays and then just play my plays on the side to gain that extra nickel each week. In today?s case, throw $100 on the Bears and $50 on the Sunday night action play and leave it at that for my plays. Then Monday a new week begins and we?ll start back over looking to make another nickel.
9/7 MLB Plays: (All lines from CRIS)
PASS
Week 1 NFL Plays: (All lines from CRIS)
Played 9/7
Chicago PK +255 over SAN FRANCISCO 100/255
Oakland vs. TENNESSEE Over 46 55/50
Denver vs. CINCINNATI Over 43 165/150
Minnesota +5 over GREEN BAY 110/100
CLEVELAND PK over Indianapolis 110/100
Played 9/3:
(Sunday) Denver vs. CINCINNATI Under 43 165/150
(Sunday) GREEN BAY -5 1/2 over Minnesota 110/100
(Sunday) Indianapolis +1 over CLEVELAND 110/100
**********
THE ESSENTIALS
Before you bet on any game there are certain things that must be taken care of if you want any chance at making money long term. Please make sure these are taken care of before you make any wagers.
MONEY MANAGEMENT
1) ESTABLISH YOUR BANKROLL. This should be the amount of money you can afford to lose and are willing to lose wagering on sports.
2) TRACK ALL WAGERS. Track the following categories at a bare minimum: wager, spread, line, sport, sportsbook, risk amount, win amount, result, cumulative bankroll.
3) NEVER WAGER MORE THAN 5% OF YOUR BANKROLL. Except on rare occasions. In those cases, which should total less than a handful each calendar year, keep your wagers to 10% or less.
HANDICAPPING
4) DON?T BET FOR ACTION. Bet only when you find a legitimate reason why it is a strong wager.
5) DON?T CHASE LOSSES. Do not make additional wagers just because you lost money recently.
6) BET WHAT YOU KNOW. Only bet sports and wager types that you feel comfortable with.
7) HANDICAP THE WHOLE GAME. Don?t rely on one stat, trend or part of the game in your handicapping.
**********
PAST PERFORMANCE:
Final 2002-2003 Soccer Record: 2-9, -700
Final 2002-2003 NBA Record: 14-28, -1385
Final 2002-2003 NHL Record: 36-50, -1026
Final 2002 NFL Record: 24-36-1, -1290
Final 2002 MLB Record: 126-152, -4014
Final 2002 NFLX Record: 2-3, -480
Final 2002 World Cup Record: 1-8, -1370
Final 2001-2002 NHL Record: 89-106, +1857
Final 2001-2002 NBA Record: 67-81, +5469
Final 2001-2002 UEFA Champions League Record: 3-6, +175
Final 2001 NFL Record: 51-44, +773
Final 2001 NFLX Record: 5-6, -315
Final 2001 MLB Record: 145-165, +3946
This Week?s Record: 6-2, +390
Current MLB Record: 45-69, -2458
Current Bundesliga Record: 1-1, -6
Current Premier League Record, 1-1, +29
Current NCAA Football Record: 1-1, -150
Current NFL Record: 1-0, +50
TODAY?S UPDATE:
Buy back day.
I am quite sure that ?buy back? are probably the last two words someone who has been following my plays all week wants to hear heading into the first Sunday of the NFL regular season, but hey, I?m here to make money, not satisfy cravings for action.
This has been a very solid week for baseball and I?ve had nice winners on small wagers in football. Though I am still short of my $500 weekly goal, that goal was based on wagering up to $500 per day. Most days have had more like $100 to $200 in total exposure. I can?t really expect to keep a $500 weekly goal on only $100 to $200 of daily exposure. All things considered, $390 for this week is very solid and I don?t feel like exposing another $400+ on one day of NFL action.
The bottom line is that I have bought back my three earlier posted NFL plays, giving me a loss of $35 on those games. If somehow the Packers win by 5 or the Browns win by 1, that number could change. The only active plays I will have is a moneyline play on the Bears and an action play on the Sunday nighter.
The Bears moneyline play is something I?d like to discuss. Those who have read my page for a long time know that I used to play almost exclusively underdog moneylines in all sports. In fact, it was a very profitable strategy for quite some time. I have since drifted from that strategy and today I find that most of my plays have favorite prices even higher than the standard -110. When I looked over the card initially, Bears +7 didn?t strike me all that much. Local media reports on the game from Chicago over the last couple of days have given me more insight however. I was thinking of taking +6 1/2 or +7 with higher juice as those are currently available prices, but I opted for the moneyline instead. It seems to me the Bears have put together a very solid team, and when I looked at coaching history and such their moneyline really is the strongest play of the week.
My advice to gamblers, as always, is to have fun with your own plays and then just play my plays on the side to gain that extra nickel each week. In today?s case, throw $100 on the Bears and $50 on the Sunday night action play and leave it at that for my plays. Then Monday a new week begins and we?ll start back over looking to make another nickel.
9/7 MLB Plays: (All lines from CRIS)
PASS
Week 1 NFL Plays: (All lines from CRIS)
Played 9/7
Chicago PK +255 over SAN FRANCISCO 100/255
Oakland vs. TENNESSEE Over 46 55/50
Denver vs. CINCINNATI Over 43 165/150
Minnesota +5 over GREEN BAY 110/100
CLEVELAND PK over Indianapolis 110/100
Played 9/3:
(Sunday) Denver vs. CINCINNATI Under 43 165/150
(Sunday) GREEN BAY -5 1/2 over Minnesota 110/100
(Sunday) Indianapolis +1 over CLEVELAND 110/100
**********
THE ESSENTIALS
Before you bet on any game there are certain things that must be taken care of if you want any chance at making money long term. Please make sure these are taken care of before you make any wagers.
MONEY MANAGEMENT
1) ESTABLISH YOUR BANKROLL. This should be the amount of money you can afford to lose and are willing to lose wagering on sports.
2) TRACK ALL WAGERS. Track the following categories at a bare minimum: wager, spread, line, sport, sportsbook, risk amount, win amount, result, cumulative bankroll.
3) NEVER WAGER MORE THAN 5% OF YOUR BANKROLL. Except on rare occasions. In those cases, which should total less than a handful each calendar year, keep your wagers to 10% or less.
HANDICAPPING
4) DON?T BET FOR ACTION. Bet only when you find a legitimate reason why it is a strong wager.
5) DON?T CHASE LOSSES. Do not make additional wagers just because you lost money recently.
6) BET WHAT YOU KNOW. Only bet sports and wager types that you feel comfortable with.
7) HANDICAP THE WHOLE GAME. Don?t rely on one stat, trend or part of the game in your handicapping.
**********
PAST PERFORMANCE:
Final 2002-2003 Soccer Record: 2-9, -700
Final 2002-2003 NBA Record: 14-28, -1385
Final 2002-2003 NHL Record: 36-50, -1026
Final 2002 NFL Record: 24-36-1, -1290
Final 2002 MLB Record: 126-152, -4014
Final 2002 NFLX Record: 2-3, -480
Final 2002 World Cup Record: 1-8, -1370
Final 2001-2002 NHL Record: 89-106, +1857
Final 2001-2002 NBA Record: 67-81, +5469
Final 2001-2002 UEFA Champions League Record: 3-6, +175
Final 2001 NFL Record: 51-44, +773
Final 2001 NFLX Record: 5-6, -315
Final 2001 MLB Record: 145-165, +3946
