I'll be editing this post over the next two days as time permits to complete and polish the explanations of my thinking. (Time's up.)
OUTRIGHTS (1/4 for 1-2-3-4-5-6):
Lee Westwood(14/1) e.w.
- - My capping ANGLES include spotting (or imagining I'm spotting) themes that identify a season, an event, a career . . . I thought the very British conditions at demanding/quirky Sandwich (by the way, I have NEVER before and probably never will again seen weather forecasts that were so SPOT ON: for weeks leading up to the tournament, then daily while still days out, then hourly while still days out - simply amazing forecasts) were conducive to a "surprise" winner and no shortage of "tough goes" by the "favorites" among the dominant Top 10 or 20 or so players in the world. This week at this venue, given the flow off this season, in the majors and otherwise, I think the chances are very good for the current cream of the game to rise to the top for Glory's Last Shot . . . I very much look for evidence of what crumbs or feasts of momentum seem to be putting wind under the wings of a player as he looks to peak for a big event, and Firestone supplied what I was looking for from this dog . . . If the "Chubby Slam" is on the line, what are the chances of Lee John Westwood seizing the day?
Adam Scott(22/1) e.w.
- - Looking at my printout from July 18, Scott at 50/1 was tracking as my favorite for this event. With the win and aftermath from last week, Westwood jumps ahead of Scott as my top choice, but no chance I'll be picking up this winning marker.
Rory McIlroy(11/1) e.w.
- - (Time's up.)
Jason Day(25/1) e.w.
- - This guy has lacked an ability drive the ball well or even reasonably well when he needs it the most, but every other tangible and intangible has looked top drawer. I was (time's up) . . . This will about fill up my card with a full quota of short-priced favorites, and about the only name conspicuous by it's absence is Luke Donald(14/1), for no solid reason other than you have to draw the line somewhere, so lump on with the World #1.
Aaron Baddeley(100/1) e.w.
- - Much more my style (and preference) to look for outsiders with IMO "tangible" chances (and not just demonstrable but abstract "value"), but I guess I won't be wedded to the approach when I also think I find "tangible" reasons for liking favorites (and whether favorites or longshots, I'm not easily deterred even if their price might be demonstrably somewhat too short) . . . Into the longshots, and Baddeley possesses something I very much liked with Glover at 200/1 at Bethpage, and something I hadn't detected about Romero before my play but am very pleased to discover about Romero after the fact, and that is Baddeley's paucity of appeareances in the fun and exciting end of recent majors. Badds was on my radar for Firestone, he did not disappoint, and now the Aussie will get to have a go over the zoysia grass with my cash.
Andres Romero(110/1) e.w.
- - I thought early on that Romero went from being underrated to overrated since the day he snuck in and won in America in a 36 hole final. On the other hand, I've always seen something in the lad, call it moxie, that suggested to me a future champion. He's been very much on my radar all summer long and gets to carry my cash this week, even though I would prefer fewer hazards that can create some of those big numbers Romero has posted when he's both on and off his game . . . Others still getting consideration for the "just 1 more" slot which Romero currently claims are Lucas Glover, Y.E. Yang, Davis Love, Charles Howell, etc.
Steve Stricker(28/1) e.w.
- - I certainly believe there is something to the "right time and right place" ANGLE of capping, the problem is seeing in advance what appears to be fairly obvious after the fact. Anyway, I think Stricker arrives "in a good spot" for giving a performance worthy of his stature in the game, and he would be just about the right name to end the stranglehold of non-Americans winning golf's major championships . . . When trying to guess who held the #1 ranking for this event in the tour-tips.com stats, I didn't think it would be this 28/1 shot.
Zach Johnson(66/1) e.w.
- - For several months I've been tracking Zach for his game rounding into shape, and there's nothing I've seen that isn't something of a green light heading to Georgia. I just couldn't see putting Zach down as my top American to bust up the run of non-American major champions.
David Toms(66/1)e.w.
- - My two strongest plays of the season were David Toms(80/1) for The Players, and Darren Clarke(50/1) in-running before the second round at Sandwich . . . A 3 stroke lead with 11 holes to play was not enough for an up to that moment flawless Toms to break one of my longest "tough stretches" of my golf capping life (all the way back to Glover at 200/1 in the U.S. Open, for anything to get excited about), but my team that landed the top 4 spots at The Open Championship (with odds of 50/1, 45/1, 66/1 and 200/1) have left me feeling a lot better about the Toms disappointment (I couldn't even be as thrilled as I wanted to be for Toms at Colonial, because I made a point of capping him off my list of plays for that week). Nothing this week rates with the confidence level I felt on either of those plays, but . . . Toms' golf has been experiencing a full blown renaissance this year, it wasn't long ago that the entire European squad in the Ryder Cup would have said "that Toms" if asked to name an American that impressed them as much as any, and if he dials in his best driving, then his ball striking is proven as well suited for the zoysia grass fairways (as noted by someone else, "which is a little like picking a ball of a tee mat").
Tiger Woods(16/1) e.w.
- - I read that "11 of the last 12 winners of the year's final major had won earlier that season", FWIW . . . On view last week, Tiger's swing appeared surprisingly fluid and effortless (and it has looked similar to me on the range this week), there were times here and there when he appeared to be favoring his knee, driving accuracy was exactly the nemesis I expected at demanding Firestone, his distance control was surprisingly off given how solidly he appeared to be striking the ball, and his short game was the biggest disappointment. Tiger is not lightly raced (by his recent standards) heading into this week, and a P.G.A. Championship is certainly about the right focus for some significant strides in the tangible and intangible elements of his game . . . In the past I was almost religious in my Win Only wagers on Tiger in majors as "insurance against", but of late I'm much more in the camp of get on with it already, you old douchebag.
Charles Howell(60/1)(1/4 for 1-2-3-4) Top American
- - A stretch of fine golf here (in the disappointing arc of his career), especially when there has been only one event in which he has finished better than 29th in driving accuracy. If the driver is something of his friend this week, which I strongly suspect it should be, there is no reason for Charles not to have a week to savor (hoping I done got all my negatives and suppositions lined up to say what I mean there, and not say the opposite of what I mean) . . . Lucas Glover at 40/1 in the same market looks like better value, but CHIII is meant to to carry my cash this week.
Jamie Donaldson(100/1)(1/4 for 1-2-3-4) e.w. Top European
- - One crazy final wager, taking it over Dyson at 40/1 and Laird 33/1 in the same market, because it's all mine.
Matchups and Propositions:
Rory McIlroy finishing position Under 15'(+110)
Lee Westwood finishing position Under 15'(-115)
Adam Scott finishing position Under 25'(-115)
Jason Day finishing position Under 28'(-130)
GL
******************************************
Don't believe everything you think.
******************************************
OUTRIGHTS (1/4 for 1-2-3-4-5-6):
Lee Westwood(14/1) e.w.
- - My capping ANGLES include spotting (or imagining I'm spotting) themes that identify a season, an event, a career . . . I thought the very British conditions at demanding/quirky Sandwich (by the way, I have NEVER before and probably never will again seen weather forecasts that were so SPOT ON: for weeks leading up to the tournament, then daily while still days out, then hourly while still days out - simply amazing forecasts) were conducive to a "surprise" winner and no shortage of "tough goes" by the "favorites" among the dominant Top 10 or 20 or so players in the world. This week at this venue, given the flow off this season, in the majors and otherwise, I think the chances are very good for the current cream of the game to rise to the top for Glory's Last Shot . . . I very much look for evidence of what crumbs or feasts of momentum seem to be putting wind under the wings of a player as he looks to peak for a big event, and Firestone supplied what I was looking for from this dog . . . If the "Chubby Slam" is on the line, what are the chances of Lee John Westwood seizing the day?
Adam Scott(22/1) e.w.
- - Looking at my printout from July 18, Scott at 50/1 was tracking as my favorite for this event. With the win and aftermath from last week, Westwood jumps ahead of Scott as my top choice, but no chance I'll be picking up this winning marker.
Rory McIlroy(11/1) e.w.
- - (Time's up.)
Jason Day(25/1) e.w.
- - This guy has lacked an ability drive the ball well or even reasonably well when he needs it the most, but every other tangible and intangible has looked top drawer. I was (time's up) . . . This will about fill up my card with a full quota of short-priced favorites, and about the only name conspicuous by it's absence is Luke Donald(14/1), for no solid reason other than you have to draw the line somewhere, so lump on with the World #1.
Aaron Baddeley(100/1) e.w.
- - Much more my style (and preference) to look for outsiders with IMO "tangible" chances (and not just demonstrable but abstract "value"), but I guess I won't be wedded to the approach when I also think I find "tangible" reasons for liking favorites (and whether favorites or longshots, I'm not easily deterred even if their price might be demonstrably somewhat too short) . . . Into the longshots, and Baddeley possesses something I very much liked with Glover at 200/1 at Bethpage, and something I hadn't detected about Romero before my play but am very pleased to discover about Romero after the fact, and that is Baddeley's paucity of appeareances in the fun and exciting end of recent majors. Badds was on my radar for Firestone, he did not disappoint, and now the Aussie will get to have a go over the zoysia grass with my cash.
Andres Romero(110/1) e.w.
- - I thought early on that Romero went from being underrated to overrated since the day he snuck in and won in America in a 36 hole final. On the other hand, I've always seen something in the lad, call it moxie, that suggested to me a future champion. He's been very much on my radar all summer long and gets to carry my cash this week, even though I would prefer fewer hazards that can create some of those big numbers Romero has posted when he's both on and off his game . . . Others still getting consideration for the "just 1 more" slot which Romero currently claims are Lucas Glover, Y.E. Yang, Davis Love, Charles Howell, etc.
Steve Stricker(28/1) e.w.
- - I certainly believe there is something to the "right time and right place" ANGLE of capping, the problem is seeing in advance what appears to be fairly obvious after the fact. Anyway, I think Stricker arrives "in a good spot" for giving a performance worthy of his stature in the game, and he would be just about the right name to end the stranglehold of non-Americans winning golf's major championships . . . When trying to guess who held the #1 ranking for this event in the tour-tips.com stats, I didn't think it would be this 28/1 shot.
Zach Johnson(66/1) e.w.
- - For several months I've been tracking Zach for his game rounding into shape, and there's nothing I've seen that isn't something of a green light heading to Georgia. I just couldn't see putting Zach down as my top American to bust up the run of non-American major champions.
David Toms(66/1)e.w.
- - My two strongest plays of the season were David Toms(80/1) for The Players, and Darren Clarke(50/1) in-running before the second round at Sandwich . . . A 3 stroke lead with 11 holes to play was not enough for an up to that moment flawless Toms to break one of my longest "tough stretches" of my golf capping life (all the way back to Glover at 200/1 in the U.S. Open, for anything to get excited about), but my team that landed the top 4 spots at The Open Championship (with odds of 50/1, 45/1, 66/1 and 200/1) have left me feeling a lot better about the Toms disappointment (I couldn't even be as thrilled as I wanted to be for Toms at Colonial, because I made a point of capping him off my list of plays for that week). Nothing this week rates with the confidence level I felt on either of those plays, but . . . Toms' golf has been experiencing a full blown renaissance this year, it wasn't long ago that the entire European squad in the Ryder Cup would have said "that Toms" if asked to name an American that impressed them as much as any, and if he dials in his best driving, then his ball striking is proven as well suited for the zoysia grass fairways (as noted by someone else, "which is a little like picking a ball of a tee mat").
Tiger Woods(16/1) e.w.
- - I read that "11 of the last 12 winners of the year's final major had won earlier that season", FWIW . . . On view last week, Tiger's swing appeared surprisingly fluid and effortless (and it has looked similar to me on the range this week), there were times here and there when he appeared to be favoring his knee, driving accuracy was exactly the nemesis I expected at demanding Firestone, his distance control was surprisingly off given how solidly he appeared to be striking the ball, and his short game was the biggest disappointment. Tiger is not lightly raced (by his recent standards) heading into this week, and a P.G.A. Championship is certainly about the right focus for some significant strides in the tangible and intangible elements of his game . . . In the past I was almost religious in my Win Only wagers on Tiger in majors as "insurance against", but of late I'm much more in the camp of get on with it already, you old douchebag.
Charles Howell(60/1)(1/4 for 1-2-3-4) Top American
- - A stretch of fine golf here (in the disappointing arc of his career), especially when there has been only one event in which he has finished better than 29th in driving accuracy. If the driver is something of his friend this week, which I strongly suspect it should be, there is no reason for Charles not to have a week to savor (hoping I done got all my negatives and suppositions lined up to say what I mean there, and not say the opposite of what I mean) . . . Lucas Glover at 40/1 in the same market looks like better value, but CHIII is meant to to carry my cash this week.
Jamie Donaldson(100/1)(1/4 for 1-2-3-4) e.w. Top European
- - One crazy final wager, taking it over Dyson at 40/1 and Laird 33/1 in the same market, because it's all mine.
Matchups and Propositions:
Rory McIlroy finishing position Under 15'(+110)
Lee Westwood finishing position Under 15'(-115)
Adam Scott finishing position Under 25'(-115)
Jason Day finishing position Under 28'(-130)
GL
******************************************
Don't believe everything you think.
******************************************
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