Hi everyone,
I just wanted to post something here early in the week as I think that this Week 4 is setup nicely for the books to make out big time. I already see alot pouncing what appear to be "easy" lines and "easy" money. Now my NFL handicapping style is quite simple, and your's should be as well. Don't get caught up thinking "Indy is a great team and they should crush Houston this week" - that is how I believe most Joe Public bets the NFL. They always look at who "should" win and therefore cover. I say win and cover because most games Joe Public likes the fave and therefore lays whatever the number, and this number often continues to rise a bit near kickoff. Personally i rarely ever bet a game early in the week, because I'm almost 90% of the time on an underdog if I play an NFL game. What I'm about to show you might show you why I do so. Often it takes me a matter of minutes each week to "handicap" my plays.
Before I go on w/ my lengthy post let me just say this first - this is not a post meant to brag about my accomplishments and success in sports betting - but a friendly post meant to help others learn a new perspective aobut how to be the games. You will not win every week using these methods - you will not lose every week using these methods - but i have won in the long run using these methods. I really feel this post will benefit alot of people and might change even a few people into "training their brain" how to think like a successful sports bettor - I hope you enjoy the post...let me also say that it took me a while to truely understand what I am about to talk about myself - it took losing to really understand how to win at this animal called sports betting - but i learned from my losses and trained my brain to spot the "right side" more times than not - often i find myself in the minority on plays - as the sports books do - it seems like when 90% of people are on a play - i'm on the 10% side - the side the sportsbook needs to come in - and more often than not that side does come in - sportsbooks win - and I WIN! You can too - keep reading!
Now instead of spending countless hours trying to figure out this darn league called the National Football League - take this approach for a change. It's what I've used for years and year in and out I walk away w/ a nice profit. I take each week as it comes - don't get me wrong I have winning weeks and i have losing weeks, but in the long run i'm ahead and that's all that matters...now each week we are faced w/ 14-16 games to choose from in the NFL - depending on if teams have bye weeks or not. This week starts byes so first 3 weeks of season we have 16 games a week. Now we should all agree on this point - the sports books ALWAYS - i repeat ALWAYS make money in the long run. This is a fact. Can sportsbooks lose on any given week - YES - can they win on any given week - YES. This is the same as you and I - we can win or lose on any given week. Now i'm not gonna go into countless hours of preaching money management, though I do manage my money extremely well, and after a bad week i don't chase to get it all back and after a good week i don't throw it all on the MNF game to go for a huge week. I've learned the importance of winning over the LONG RUN. I've been betting sports for several years and have a knack for turning a profit each year - my friends think i'm the "luckiest guy" and blah blah - truth is alot of them play the games but just don't understand sports betting. To get ahead in this game you really need to understand WHY the line is set at the number it is.
Most people seem to think the books want and get 50/50 action - we all know this doesn't happen and you can look at all those consensus sites - on any given Sunday you'll see nearly every game have about a 70/30 split - most often weighted on the favorite - now totals you'll see a similar split on a lean to the "OVER" by most - now for the sake of focusing on SIDES and not TOTALS let's not discuss over/unders here - I want to talk about how relatively simple it is to bet the NFL focusing on SIDES. It's an approach i've used week in and out and at the end of the day "the man" is usally in my pocket...
Now this is how I approach a week - we all know that the lines come out for the next weeks games Sunday evening. I know alot start jumping on games right away - and if you like to bet a fave that you feel will only rise, then yeah that's when you have to get in on the number - see the truth is though i will usually glance at the lines out of curiosity of what they are set at. I truely believe this though - that the lines are set so that majorit Joe Public will psychologically be screwed - by that i mean the average sports fan/bettor - whatever - will look at these lines and automatically they will lean to the side that will ultimately benefit the sports books in the end - translation - Joe Public is "hypnotized" into taking the WRONG side. Week in and out there are so many "EASY" and "OBVIOUS" games out there. It's almost like it looks like the books will be giving away money this weekend. Yet at the end of the week, when it's all said and done, people are swearing, saying how unlucky they are - and the sports books are laughing all the way to the bank. Don't let this happen to you!
So understand that each week when I see the lines I'm not looking at them like "wow Indy is ONLY favored by 6.5 points on the road at Houston - and Andre Johnson - their best player - isn't even playing - wow how can Houston possibly keep up with Indy" - i can't tell you how many people I saw thought that this week - now this week there were 3 games that people really seemed to be all over - Indy -6.5, San Diego -5.5, and Carolina -4...the first thing I look at each week is who are the home dogs and how many home dogs are there - I saw just 3 this week - and you know what - i took all 3 this week - what was the result - Indy wins by 6, Green Bay wins outright, and Carolina wins by 7 - still 2 wins, 1 loss - 66.7% - and more money in my pocket...how long did that take to handicap - about 5 minutes.
Now you might say - well why would you just take those 3 home dogs? I mean what is my "reasoning" for taking a crappy team like Atlanta +4, a team that has lost their best player in Andre Johnson - you know the "flukey" 2-0 Houston Texans and the +6.5 - and shouldn't this "Super Bowl Contender" San Diego Chargers let loose on that overrateed Packers - i mean LT should run wild right? They should EASILY cover 5.5 right? I simply called "the man" and said "i'd like a dime each on Houston, Green Bay, and Atlanta - thank you!
The week before last I spent about 20 minutes looking at the Week 2 lines for the 8 early games -it appeared as if every favorite had a line that was inflated or "wrong" - some of the favorites seemed so easy - 3 of the home dogs seemed like they had no chance in hell to win - so i called up the man - said "i'll take all 8 underdogs in the early games - dime on each" - thank you - end result 7 wins, 1 loss - another payday - i felt pretty good when i was told i was the only one on Cleveland and Tampa Bay - and in the minority on Tennesse - the 3 early home dogs - well 2 won outright, other one covered - who says you have to play a game because "team A should beat team B because blah blah" - i simply read in between the "lines"...
After years of doing this and repeatedly seeing people say the NFL is the toughest sport to handicap - i disagree - it's the easiest...you just have to know HOW to bet the NFL. Rule #1 i have - ALWAYS EXPECT THE UNEXPECTED TO HAPPEN. Because let's face it - it always does. I truely believe these lines are set so that it's nearly impossible to logically pick who should win and cover. I mean 2 weeks ago - how could anyone LOGICALLY think that the Browns would beat the Bengals? Or this week how could Houston LOGICALLY cover versus Indy? Indy should blow them out right? Or how could the PATHETIC GIANTS stay in the game and beat Washington - i mean shouldn't Washington score at will and Washington's STINGY Defense stop them? Wrong - Giants win outright. YOU CAN'T HANDICAP THIS!!! When you look at a line like Chargers -3.5 - i mean an AFC powerhouse going to Green Bay who is a flukey 2-0 right (or so most believe) - and the public keeps pounding and pounding SD and the line moves to 4, 4.5, 5, and ends at 5.5 - i mean everyone must be right - right? WRONG...it takes balls to take teams like Atlanta and Green Bay and Houston last week - and it's SO EASY to do this - all you have to do is read THE LINE - don't get caught up in San Diego is 14-2 ATS against NFC opponents or this team is 8-0 ATS last 8 times they played this team - the long run answer to winning lies in READING THE LINES.
Now here are a few interesting stats through the first week of the 3 weeks of the season:
*Week 1 the home teams have gone 10-6 SU
*Week 2 the home teams have gone 10-6 SU
*Week 3 the home teams have gone 10-6 SU
This means that home teams have simply won 30 of the 48 games straight up - which is 62.5% of the time.
* Underdogs have gone 25W-17L-6T for the season - that is 59.5% - had you simply played EVERY underdog, you are winning at nearly 60% - which means FAVORITES are only covering around 40% thus far!
Now what is really interesting is when you break down the HOME UNDERDOGS! Yes, these pathetic little teams like the Browns, Packers, Falcons, Titans catching points - well here are some HOME UNDERDOG FACTS:
*Week 1 there were 4 home underdogs which went 2-2 ATS
*Week 2 there were 5 home underdogs which went 4-1ATS
*Week 3 there were 3 home underdogs which went 2-1 ATS
So if you simply bet the 12 home underdogs you would be 8W-4L for 66.7%!
You see a trend here - because this happens nearly every year - but people fail to realize this...look at some of the key info i simply presented to you:
1) All UNDERDOGS covering at 60% right now
2) All HOME UNDERDGOS covering at 66.7%
3) This means ROAD FAVORITES covering at 33.3% and ALL FAVORITES covering at 33.3%
Yet what are most betting? FAVORITES! You know, the teams that should "win and cover" - these are teams that i see people continuously playing 6, 6.5, 7, 10 point teasers on - which i really want to address in another post sometime - because i see so many that seem to be in love w/ these monster teasers etc - just play the game separately YOU DON'T NEED THE EXTRA points if you try to approach the week like i do.
Anyways the trend as you can see is Underdogs - especially HOME UNDERDOGS are a trememndous long run bet. I have a few friends I taught this to - one doesn't even like sports - yet he simply looks at the lines every week in NFL, if it's a home underdog - he calls his man and bets the game. He just looks at the box score later on or in the morning - and by end of the year he's got his Christmas fund or extra cash to do whatever with.
Now about Week 4 - have you noticed what I have noticed? First off we have just 14 games this week - 4 teams are on bye. Go ahead, take a look and you will see this - 9 OUT OF THE 14 GAMES ARE HOME UNDERDOGS!!!!
Now remember what I just told you - each week so far 10 home teams have won and 6 home teams have lost - 62.5% of home teams are WINNING OUTRIGHT. So this week we have 9 of 14 games that are home underdogs - that's right GETTING POINTS! Now I'm not saying that 62.5% of these home teams will win outright every week of the year - but i'm telling you right now you will glance at the lines and think thoughts such as these:
1) Wow I would never bet on Atlant ever - Houston is only favored by 2.5 - easy money
2) Cleveland is brutal - Baltimore is only favored by 4.5 - they should steam roll cleveland
3) The Lions have no chance against that tough bears Defense
4) Wow Green Bay is 3-0 and only favored by 1.5 - Minnesota is terrible
5) Buffalo sucks - no way they beat the Jets
6) Seahawks only favored by 2 over 49ers - they should win easily
7) Steelers are awesome - they should crush Arizona by more than 6 easily
8) Didn't the Eagles just score 56 points? Wow only favored by 2.5 over the Giants - they are going to crush the Giants!
9) Nobody is going to beat the Patriots - and Cincinati has no defense - Pats by only 7 - that's too easy
Alright - hopefully you get the point - these are all comments i'm sure you'll here from the local office guy you work with at the water cooler - thoughts Joe Public is thinking as i write this. Remember - always expect the unexpected. There appear to be a ton of "easy" wins this week by the road favorites.
9 OF 14 games are HOME DOGS! If you approach games like me this is a week I look forward to. I've committed myself to playing every home dog this season, so I will be playing every home dog. I might win this week, i might lose. But i will not pass up a chance at high percentage plays. This week looks so easy for those "short road favorites" - yet at the end of the day, i'm willing to bet that some of these road teams will find out just how hard it is to win on the road in the NFL.
There is a reason that year in and out people look back and say "if only i'd just bet all the home underdogs". Yes everyone, sports betting can be profitable. It doesn't need to take up countless hours of handicapping the stats.
What you need to realize is this - the sports books make money in the long run. Sportsbooks do not get equal amounts of money on each game and just collect the vig. Almost every game has one side that is played more than the other - this tends to be the favored team. The books don't mind taking 70/30 action on games - as long as that 30% comes in enough to make them a huge profit. And it always does in the long run.
So when you see everyone jumping on an "easy win" - when you see 90% on this game and just can't see it possibly going down. Think again. Take the team that 10% is backing. A few weeks back one site showed about 5% backed Tampa Bay as a home dog vs. New Orleans, and 5% backed Cleveland as a home dog vs. Cincinatti - those were the 2 most lopsided games - and the books cleaned up on them. No stat sheet could logically tell you that. But beleive me it's good to be a contrarian and in the minority.
I know alot like to follow the popular play or the easy plays. We like to believe that San Diego last week was so superior to Green Bay and that laying 5.5 is no big deal. The truth is any time you are laying even 1 point in the NFL - it is a big deal. Laying "just 3 points" with a "better team" on the road looks so easy. I mean how can't the Eagles win by at least 3 right this weekend over the Giants? But you know what at the end of the day the Giants will probably win that game. And Atlanta will probably get their first win of the year. Is it logical? Heck no - that's why I believe they are the right side this weekend. I've just learned sometimes to not question things - I'm playing all 9 underdogs - 9 HOME DOGS! And next week if there are 4 HOME DOGS i'll play those. I do know one thing - at the end of the year when we look back at all the Home Dogs that the percentage that cover will be profitable.
As always I wish everyone the best of luck on their plays each week. Remember a few other rules I live by - only bet what you could afford to lose. Have a plan - a REASONABLE plan. If you have a $500 bankroll don't go making $100 wagers. Don't go into the week thinking you are going to turn $100 into $1,000. Take things slow - remember if you have a $500 bankroll and you win $40 for the week you just made 8% on your money in one day! Don't get greedy and expect 100-1000% returns week in and out. I know so many people who are happy w/ a 10% stock market return at the end of the year, and those same people start w/ a $1,000 bankroll and want to have $10,000 by end of the year. Now sure that can be done, but if that guy ends the year w/ $1,200 - he made 20% on his money - that "measley $200" profit is great - yet so many get greedy and look at that as a failure - always be happy w/ a profit no matter how big or small. And if you lose a little, as long as you are playing w/in your bankroll it shouldn't matter if you lose a few weeks in a row - keep grinding - this is a long term game here.
Best of luck to you all - I hope that you have a new perspective on how to bet the NFL. One thing to remember if a line looks too easy - and the "easy side" is a road favorite - take the home dog! Or pass on the game if you don't feel comfortable. But you know when I seem to have the most success? It's when i find a game that makes you so sick to your stomach to bet it - i mean do you think it was easy betting the Browns +7 or Tampa +4.5 against New Orleans a few weeks ago - on paper nobody could give these teams a chance to be close - that's usually when you have the golden nugget - a winner!
Remember this - most people who bet sports are going to lose, when percentages are heavy on one side - that is usually a long run loser. Side with the books. Don't fall into the psychological trap of betting on what "should happen" in the NFL - these lines are set to get the majority to take the bait - the wrong bait - the side of long run losers. Just take a step back - glance at the lines early on - look at them more on Saturday, and then again on Sunday - i usually wait as long as possible - since the side i'm on 90+% of the time is the underdog - usually a HOME UNDERDOG - 2 of the strongest words in the sports betting vocabulary - HOME & UNDERDOG = WINNER! Again all this i apply to the NFL only. Remember every extra half point and point count. Last week that Houston game i waited and got the +6.5 - game ended w/ Houston losing by 6 - waiting as long as i could turned what most had as a push into a winner.
Best of luck with the week - and remember to always expect the unexpected in the NFL - don't overthink the games - don't worry about the stats - the lines tell you everything you need to know! Good luck with your plays - again this isn't a one week wonder post - all the home dogs could go 0-9 this week and if so please don't bash too much, and if they go 9-0 please don't praise too much...just know that if you keep grinding it week in and out, and stay within your bankroll, you'll turn a nice profit by the end of the year...i'm already ahead of the game after 3 straight winning weeks, and you can be sure i won't be giving it back - always manage that money - and of course - have fun - life is too short to do anything but enjoy life - take care!
--SAVE IT!!!!!!!!!!!!
I just wanted to post something here early in the week as I think that this Week 4 is setup nicely for the books to make out big time. I already see alot pouncing what appear to be "easy" lines and "easy" money. Now my NFL handicapping style is quite simple, and your's should be as well. Don't get caught up thinking "Indy is a great team and they should crush Houston this week" - that is how I believe most Joe Public bets the NFL. They always look at who "should" win and therefore cover. I say win and cover because most games Joe Public likes the fave and therefore lays whatever the number, and this number often continues to rise a bit near kickoff. Personally i rarely ever bet a game early in the week, because I'm almost 90% of the time on an underdog if I play an NFL game. What I'm about to show you might show you why I do so. Often it takes me a matter of minutes each week to "handicap" my plays.
Before I go on w/ my lengthy post let me just say this first - this is not a post meant to brag about my accomplishments and success in sports betting - but a friendly post meant to help others learn a new perspective aobut how to be the games. You will not win every week using these methods - you will not lose every week using these methods - but i have won in the long run using these methods. I really feel this post will benefit alot of people and might change even a few people into "training their brain" how to think like a successful sports bettor - I hope you enjoy the post...let me also say that it took me a while to truely understand what I am about to talk about myself - it took losing to really understand how to win at this animal called sports betting - but i learned from my losses and trained my brain to spot the "right side" more times than not - often i find myself in the minority on plays - as the sports books do - it seems like when 90% of people are on a play - i'm on the 10% side - the side the sportsbook needs to come in - and more often than not that side does come in - sportsbooks win - and I WIN! You can too - keep reading!
Now instead of spending countless hours trying to figure out this darn league called the National Football League - take this approach for a change. It's what I've used for years and year in and out I walk away w/ a nice profit. I take each week as it comes - don't get me wrong I have winning weeks and i have losing weeks, but in the long run i'm ahead and that's all that matters...now each week we are faced w/ 14-16 games to choose from in the NFL - depending on if teams have bye weeks or not. This week starts byes so first 3 weeks of season we have 16 games a week. Now we should all agree on this point - the sports books ALWAYS - i repeat ALWAYS make money in the long run. This is a fact. Can sportsbooks lose on any given week - YES - can they win on any given week - YES. This is the same as you and I - we can win or lose on any given week. Now i'm not gonna go into countless hours of preaching money management, though I do manage my money extremely well, and after a bad week i don't chase to get it all back and after a good week i don't throw it all on the MNF game to go for a huge week. I've learned the importance of winning over the LONG RUN. I've been betting sports for several years and have a knack for turning a profit each year - my friends think i'm the "luckiest guy" and blah blah - truth is alot of them play the games but just don't understand sports betting. To get ahead in this game you really need to understand WHY the line is set at the number it is.
Most people seem to think the books want and get 50/50 action - we all know this doesn't happen and you can look at all those consensus sites - on any given Sunday you'll see nearly every game have about a 70/30 split - most often weighted on the favorite - now totals you'll see a similar split on a lean to the "OVER" by most - now for the sake of focusing on SIDES and not TOTALS let's not discuss over/unders here - I want to talk about how relatively simple it is to bet the NFL focusing on SIDES. It's an approach i've used week in and out and at the end of the day "the man" is usally in my pocket...
Now this is how I approach a week - we all know that the lines come out for the next weeks games Sunday evening. I know alot start jumping on games right away - and if you like to bet a fave that you feel will only rise, then yeah that's when you have to get in on the number - see the truth is though i will usually glance at the lines out of curiosity of what they are set at. I truely believe this though - that the lines are set so that majorit Joe Public will psychologically be screwed - by that i mean the average sports fan/bettor - whatever - will look at these lines and automatically they will lean to the side that will ultimately benefit the sports books in the end - translation - Joe Public is "hypnotized" into taking the WRONG side. Week in and out there are so many "EASY" and "OBVIOUS" games out there. It's almost like it looks like the books will be giving away money this weekend. Yet at the end of the week, when it's all said and done, people are swearing, saying how unlucky they are - and the sports books are laughing all the way to the bank. Don't let this happen to you!
So understand that each week when I see the lines I'm not looking at them like "wow Indy is ONLY favored by 6.5 points on the road at Houston - and Andre Johnson - their best player - isn't even playing - wow how can Houston possibly keep up with Indy" - i can't tell you how many people I saw thought that this week - now this week there were 3 games that people really seemed to be all over - Indy -6.5, San Diego -5.5, and Carolina -4...the first thing I look at each week is who are the home dogs and how many home dogs are there - I saw just 3 this week - and you know what - i took all 3 this week - what was the result - Indy wins by 6, Green Bay wins outright, and Carolina wins by 7 - still 2 wins, 1 loss - 66.7% - and more money in my pocket...how long did that take to handicap - about 5 minutes.
Now you might say - well why would you just take those 3 home dogs? I mean what is my "reasoning" for taking a crappy team like Atlanta +4, a team that has lost their best player in Andre Johnson - you know the "flukey" 2-0 Houston Texans and the +6.5 - and shouldn't this "Super Bowl Contender" San Diego Chargers let loose on that overrateed Packers - i mean LT should run wild right? They should EASILY cover 5.5 right? I simply called "the man" and said "i'd like a dime each on Houston, Green Bay, and Atlanta - thank you!
The week before last I spent about 20 minutes looking at the Week 2 lines for the 8 early games -it appeared as if every favorite had a line that was inflated or "wrong" - some of the favorites seemed so easy - 3 of the home dogs seemed like they had no chance in hell to win - so i called up the man - said "i'll take all 8 underdogs in the early games - dime on each" - thank you - end result 7 wins, 1 loss - another payday - i felt pretty good when i was told i was the only one on Cleveland and Tampa Bay - and in the minority on Tennesse - the 3 early home dogs - well 2 won outright, other one covered - who says you have to play a game because "team A should beat team B because blah blah" - i simply read in between the "lines"...
After years of doing this and repeatedly seeing people say the NFL is the toughest sport to handicap - i disagree - it's the easiest...you just have to know HOW to bet the NFL. Rule #1 i have - ALWAYS EXPECT THE UNEXPECTED TO HAPPEN. Because let's face it - it always does. I truely believe these lines are set so that it's nearly impossible to logically pick who should win and cover. I mean 2 weeks ago - how could anyone LOGICALLY think that the Browns would beat the Bengals? Or this week how could Houston LOGICALLY cover versus Indy? Indy should blow them out right? Or how could the PATHETIC GIANTS stay in the game and beat Washington - i mean shouldn't Washington score at will and Washington's STINGY Defense stop them? Wrong - Giants win outright. YOU CAN'T HANDICAP THIS!!! When you look at a line like Chargers -3.5 - i mean an AFC powerhouse going to Green Bay who is a flukey 2-0 right (or so most believe) - and the public keeps pounding and pounding SD and the line moves to 4, 4.5, 5, and ends at 5.5 - i mean everyone must be right - right? WRONG...it takes balls to take teams like Atlanta and Green Bay and Houston last week - and it's SO EASY to do this - all you have to do is read THE LINE - don't get caught up in San Diego is 14-2 ATS against NFC opponents or this team is 8-0 ATS last 8 times they played this team - the long run answer to winning lies in READING THE LINES.
Now here are a few interesting stats through the first week of the 3 weeks of the season:
*Week 1 the home teams have gone 10-6 SU
*Week 2 the home teams have gone 10-6 SU
*Week 3 the home teams have gone 10-6 SU
This means that home teams have simply won 30 of the 48 games straight up - which is 62.5% of the time.
* Underdogs have gone 25W-17L-6T for the season - that is 59.5% - had you simply played EVERY underdog, you are winning at nearly 60% - which means FAVORITES are only covering around 40% thus far!
Now what is really interesting is when you break down the HOME UNDERDOGS! Yes, these pathetic little teams like the Browns, Packers, Falcons, Titans catching points - well here are some HOME UNDERDOG FACTS:
*Week 1 there were 4 home underdogs which went 2-2 ATS
*Week 2 there were 5 home underdogs which went 4-1ATS
*Week 3 there were 3 home underdogs which went 2-1 ATS
So if you simply bet the 12 home underdogs you would be 8W-4L for 66.7%!
You see a trend here - because this happens nearly every year - but people fail to realize this...look at some of the key info i simply presented to you:
1) All UNDERDOGS covering at 60% right now
2) All HOME UNDERDGOS covering at 66.7%
3) This means ROAD FAVORITES covering at 33.3% and ALL FAVORITES covering at 33.3%
Yet what are most betting? FAVORITES! You know, the teams that should "win and cover" - these are teams that i see people continuously playing 6, 6.5, 7, 10 point teasers on - which i really want to address in another post sometime - because i see so many that seem to be in love w/ these monster teasers etc - just play the game separately YOU DON'T NEED THE EXTRA points if you try to approach the week like i do.
Anyways the trend as you can see is Underdogs - especially HOME UNDERDOGS are a trememndous long run bet. I have a few friends I taught this to - one doesn't even like sports - yet he simply looks at the lines every week in NFL, if it's a home underdog - he calls his man and bets the game. He just looks at the box score later on or in the morning - and by end of the year he's got his Christmas fund or extra cash to do whatever with.
Now about Week 4 - have you noticed what I have noticed? First off we have just 14 games this week - 4 teams are on bye. Go ahead, take a look and you will see this - 9 OUT OF THE 14 GAMES ARE HOME UNDERDOGS!!!!
Now remember what I just told you - each week so far 10 home teams have won and 6 home teams have lost - 62.5% of home teams are WINNING OUTRIGHT. So this week we have 9 of 14 games that are home underdogs - that's right GETTING POINTS! Now I'm not saying that 62.5% of these home teams will win outright every week of the year - but i'm telling you right now you will glance at the lines and think thoughts such as these:
1) Wow I would never bet on Atlant ever - Houston is only favored by 2.5 - easy money
2) Cleveland is brutal - Baltimore is only favored by 4.5 - they should steam roll cleveland
3) The Lions have no chance against that tough bears Defense
4) Wow Green Bay is 3-0 and only favored by 1.5 - Minnesota is terrible
5) Buffalo sucks - no way they beat the Jets
6) Seahawks only favored by 2 over 49ers - they should win easily
7) Steelers are awesome - they should crush Arizona by more than 6 easily
8) Didn't the Eagles just score 56 points? Wow only favored by 2.5 over the Giants - they are going to crush the Giants!
9) Nobody is going to beat the Patriots - and Cincinati has no defense - Pats by only 7 - that's too easy
Alright - hopefully you get the point - these are all comments i'm sure you'll here from the local office guy you work with at the water cooler - thoughts Joe Public is thinking as i write this. Remember - always expect the unexpected. There appear to be a ton of "easy" wins this week by the road favorites.
9 OF 14 games are HOME DOGS! If you approach games like me this is a week I look forward to. I've committed myself to playing every home dog this season, so I will be playing every home dog. I might win this week, i might lose. But i will not pass up a chance at high percentage plays. This week looks so easy for those "short road favorites" - yet at the end of the day, i'm willing to bet that some of these road teams will find out just how hard it is to win on the road in the NFL.
There is a reason that year in and out people look back and say "if only i'd just bet all the home underdogs". Yes everyone, sports betting can be profitable. It doesn't need to take up countless hours of handicapping the stats.
What you need to realize is this - the sports books make money in the long run. Sportsbooks do not get equal amounts of money on each game and just collect the vig. Almost every game has one side that is played more than the other - this tends to be the favored team. The books don't mind taking 70/30 action on games - as long as that 30% comes in enough to make them a huge profit. And it always does in the long run.
So when you see everyone jumping on an "easy win" - when you see 90% on this game and just can't see it possibly going down. Think again. Take the team that 10% is backing. A few weeks back one site showed about 5% backed Tampa Bay as a home dog vs. New Orleans, and 5% backed Cleveland as a home dog vs. Cincinatti - those were the 2 most lopsided games - and the books cleaned up on them. No stat sheet could logically tell you that. But beleive me it's good to be a contrarian and in the minority.
I know alot like to follow the popular play or the easy plays. We like to believe that San Diego last week was so superior to Green Bay and that laying 5.5 is no big deal. The truth is any time you are laying even 1 point in the NFL - it is a big deal. Laying "just 3 points" with a "better team" on the road looks so easy. I mean how can't the Eagles win by at least 3 right this weekend over the Giants? But you know what at the end of the day the Giants will probably win that game. And Atlanta will probably get their first win of the year. Is it logical? Heck no - that's why I believe they are the right side this weekend. I've just learned sometimes to not question things - I'm playing all 9 underdogs - 9 HOME DOGS! And next week if there are 4 HOME DOGS i'll play those. I do know one thing - at the end of the year when we look back at all the Home Dogs that the percentage that cover will be profitable.
As always I wish everyone the best of luck on their plays each week. Remember a few other rules I live by - only bet what you could afford to lose. Have a plan - a REASONABLE plan. If you have a $500 bankroll don't go making $100 wagers. Don't go into the week thinking you are going to turn $100 into $1,000. Take things slow - remember if you have a $500 bankroll and you win $40 for the week you just made 8% on your money in one day! Don't get greedy and expect 100-1000% returns week in and out. I know so many people who are happy w/ a 10% stock market return at the end of the year, and those same people start w/ a $1,000 bankroll and want to have $10,000 by end of the year. Now sure that can be done, but if that guy ends the year w/ $1,200 - he made 20% on his money - that "measley $200" profit is great - yet so many get greedy and look at that as a failure - always be happy w/ a profit no matter how big or small. And if you lose a little, as long as you are playing w/in your bankroll it shouldn't matter if you lose a few weeks in a row - keep grinding - this is a long term game here.
Best of luck to you all - I hope that you have a new perspective on how to bet the NFL. One thing to remember if a line looks too easy - and the "easy side" is a road favorite - take the home dog! Or pass on the game if you don't feel comfortable. But you know when I seem to have the most success? It's when i find a game that makes you so sick to your stomach to bet it - i mean do you think it was easy betting the Browns +7 or Tampa +4.5 against New Orleans a few weeks ago - on paper nobody could give these teams a chance to be close - that's usually when you have the golden nugget - a winner!
Remember this - most people who bet sports are going to lose, when percentages are heavy on one side - that is usually a long run loser. Side with the books. Don't fall into the psychological trap of betting on what "should happen" in the NFL - these lines are set to get the majority to take the bait - the wrong bait - the side of long run losers. Just take a step back - glance at the lines early on - look at them more on Saturday, and then again on Sunday - i usually wait as long as possible - since the side i'm on 90+% of the time is the underdog - usually a HOME UNDERDOG - 2 of the strongest words in the sports betting vocabulary - HOME & UNDERDOG = WINNER! Again all this i apply to the NFL only. Remember every extra half point and point count. Last week that Houston game i waited and got the +6.5 - game ended w/ Houston losing by 6 - waiting as long as i could turned what most had as a push into a winner.
Best of luck with the week - and remember to always expect the unexpected in the NFL - don't overthink the games - don't worry about the stats - the lines tell you everything you need to know! Good luck with your plays - again this isn't a one week wonder post - all the home dogs could go 0-9 this week and if so please don't bash too much, and if they go 9-0 please don't praise too much...just know that if you keep grinding it week in and out, and stay within your bankroll, you'll turn a nice profit by the end of the year...i'm already ahead of the game after 3 straight winning weeks, and you can be sure i won't be giving it back - always manage that money - and of course - have fun - life is too short to do anything but enjoy life - take care!
--SAVE IT!!!!!!!!!!!!
