A NY Perspective -- 10/16 -- 10/18

[NY Reb]

Guys, what I've been doing hasn't been working, so I'm changing a few things in the way I select games as well as the way I post them. However, here is one early bird special that looks really good before the line goes down further.

7* Mississippi St +21.5
This opened at 21.5 last night at Olympic and Pinnacle and at many places you still have the option of buying an extra half point if you wish. Auburn has played too tough games against Tennessee and Arkansas and has LSU to look forward to next week. They'll take a breather against the Bulldogs this week, and do what it takes to win but not much more. Meanwhile, Dawgs are slowly improving and will play the game of their lives to stay in this one. I strongly suggest taking the points here.

 

[s.e.c guru]

i agree wholeheartly. auburn will be a flat football team. auburn is also a poor passing team which is ms state weakness, ms state can stop the run alot better than the pass. i look for mstate to put 8 in the box and cover the 21- points.

 

[professor]

NY...I love the MSU play...I also have seen Miss. at a pick with Bama...I think the Rebels can get it done

 

[ajoytoy]

BOL Reb!!


toy

 

[Rebel21]

NY, last time i gave my input into a rebel game was against florida so i'm a little hesistant. But, I think we are dealing with a completely different Ole Miss team than we saw in the early weeks of the year. Florida was a "turnaround" game which improved all the players and coaches confidence in themselves and this team. I think Ole Miss at a pk is not a bad play vs a very sub-par Alabama team. True, traditionally we get slaughtered by Bama but we won last time it was in oxford and I really feel like this is a different bama team than the ones that beat us like a drum year after year in Tuscaloosa? your thoughts?

 

[NY Reb]

7* Michigan St +7
Bought a point here. Mich St's 6-1 record is every bit as impressive as Minnesota's. Minnesota hasn't beaten anyone. Spartans have at least beaten Iowa, while beating Notre Dame almost counts for something. Jeff Smoker has been smoking (no pun intended). John L Smith has been good for this program. Feel quite comfortable with a touchdown padding here given that either team could win the game.

Rebel21, I agree that this should be one of those years when the Rebs beat Bama. I hate it that star DT and defensive leader Jesse Mitchell is out, but Bama is pretty banged up themselves. Rebs' offense should score plenty of points on this unit. Only trouble is none of my books have the game on the board yet. Where'd you find it?

 

[NY Reb]

7* LSU -3
LSU is better than the Cocks and they will be fired up after losing to the Gators. Cocks don't have the skill players to bother the Tigers the way the Gators did. I think LSU wins this one rather handily. I also bought a point in this game. Some very sensible cappers have advised me not to buy so readily, and I appreciate that, but if I win it doesn't matter, and if it increases my chances of winning, it's worth it. Don't think the buy is necessary in either case, but -3 is a lot safer than -4 just as +7 is a lot safer than +6. Feel really good about all three of these games so far.

 

[Punch23]

doesn't LSU have a lot of injuries from this past weekend?

 

[TDP]

NY Reb, glad to see you on MSU as well considering your extensive knowledge of the SEC. I like our chances. GOOD LUCK MY FRIEND

 

[Rebel21]

Ny, I havent seen the actual line at any of the books yet. I expect it to be around 3 if not lower. Two games that jump out at me are LSU and Arkansas. I see you agree with me on LSU. Arkansas is really tough at home, usually. I know they just lost to AU at home but that gives us a real bargain at vs Florida. FLA played a great game vs LSU, but I think they come down to reality this week and get pasted at Arkansas. What do you think?

 

[NY Reb]

Punch, LSU does have injuries, but they also have incredible depth and talent. Their last five recruiting classes have been outstanding. South Carolina will play them very close for a while, but the Tigers should win this one by at least a touchdown and probably by double figures.

TDP, happy to see that you are also on MSU. That was the first game that jumped out at me when the lines first came out Sunday night. I feel really good about this game.

Rebel21, at this point I can see the Ark/Fla game going either way. They will both be in letdown mode. The line on this one keeps going down, and a lot of good cappers I respect are on Florida in this game. If I could have gotten the original line of 7, I would be on Florida. At 4.5, I can't decide. Maybe I'll have something more definite nearer the end of the week.

Good luck to each of you!

 

[ND2002HORNS]

GL Reb! I like the LSU, MSU and Miss St. plays! Always worth buying the pts. early in the week if you get the line you want as you capped it. Rather than waiting for the line to against you.

HORNS

 

[Cie]

GL this week, Reb.

I also like LSU as well as Miss St in this Sandwich situation.

As far as LSU, they will be without their top 2 RBs, meaning Blue Chipper Justin Vincent(5'11" 225lbs 4.4 40) will start. There is no denying Vincent's combo of speed and size. Also playing will be 2 more Blue Chippers in Barrington Edwards(6'0'' 210 4.4 40) and Ally Broussard (6'1'' 225 4.45 40). These freshman are all talented High School All Americans who received offers from several major programs so I do expect them to get the job done although they have all had some problems with fumbling.

SC should not be able to run on LSU, which should translate into many 3rd and longs for the Cocks. QB Pinkins, a big, strong-armed boy ( 6'3'' 245lbs) with an erratic arm, will have a long evening.

Also, LSU O line is not happy with their effort vs Fla. These guys are exteremly talented and I expect them to come out firing Saturday night.

Jack Hunt, a WR converted to SS, was sorely missed vs. Fla. He returns this week from a sprained knee and is a "coach" on the field for LSU's young secondary.


LSU 27 SC 10

 

[gordon liddy]

i'll have to pass on the arkansas/florida game. arkansas should be fired up - yes, but i think that loss to AU could've messed up some confidence and it showed that they are beatable. haven't looked at how these teams match up but florida is also very inconsistant (miami to kentucky to olemiss to lsu) which makes this game hard to play for me.

like the LSU -4 pick though.

 

[Rebel21]

NY, I know Big 12 isnt your specialty but does the Mizzou line not look a little strange? Basically you have the number 26 team in the country vs the number 1 team. You'd think the spread would be 10 points, 14 max. 26

Mizzou vastly overrated?
Oklahoma that good?
4 TD's is astounding to me? I know they beat up on Texas, but can you expect that kind of a thrashing every week in Big 12 play?

 

[NY Reb]

Rebel21, the line might be strange, but I still think it could go either way. I don't go into this part of the country unless something looks obvious. Last week Oklahoma, Oklahoma St, and Texas Tech all looked obvious. There's nothing obvious about this Missouri game, so I'm leaving it alone.

 

[NY Reb]

Thursday:

5* Colorado St -5
Just like the better team who've played tougher schedule being at home. I think they cover easily.

 

[NY Reb]

7* Ole Miss -3
Ole Miss gets Bama at home on Saturday and will take advantage of a good time for a victory. The Tide has problems, including plenty of walking wounded. The Rebs have an injury where they need one least -- star DT and team captain Jesse Mitchell, the strongest man on the team, can't go. Taking his place, however, is someone who will eventually be even better -- soph McKinley Boykin, who is just rounding into top health himself for the first time this year. Boykin is explosive and talented enough to fill Mitchell's shoes admirably. Of course, there are the usual mismatches, like Bama's 6-8, 315 OT Wesley Britt against Ole Miss DE Charles Anderson at 6-4, 245. Even so, the Rebs will do whatever is necessary this day to preserve a victory over the hated Tide. Key is Rebs' offense will get their points, and they will be more than Bama will get on the Rebs' defense. Nice victory for Ole Miss here.

 

[NY Reb]

Here's three more:

7* FSU -7
Noles can still win the ACC championship and go to a BCS bowl. They can start tomorrow with Virginia. Cavaliers have lots of good young talent, but Noles have good experienced talent and will win this game by more than a TD.

5* Arkansas -4
Just can't see the Gators winning too straight on the road at this point. They're still happy about winning at LSU, while Hogs are still pissed about losing to Auburn. This creates a dynamic where the Hogs should be a comfortable winner in this spot.

5* Kansas -20.5
Last year Kansas and Baylor were my main two go-against teams. You simply took the other team and you made a profit. It isn't working out that way this year. Baylor has become competitive and even beat Colorado. Kansas, however, has improved unbelievably while racking up the yardage and points. This one looks like another blowout to me.

Fascinating game is Okla St and Texas Tech. Seems like almost everyone is on Okla St, yet the line hasn't budged an inch. Any comments?

I might add more games tomorrow. If interested check back.

Hope you all come out of the weekend a little richer than when you went in!

 

[NY Reb]

5* Western Michigan +11
Have a feeling that N Illinois finally drops out of the top 25.