A question for Madjackers to consider

[blgstocks]

Tell me your thoughts.

I hear all the time about line movement traps, and I think in some cases it applies. But could it be that when a Texas line at -6.5 gets hammered (80% on one side) and doesnt budge that the books just dont want to get middled? It wouldn't explain the drop in the line, but I think alot of the fishy line movement is so bookmakers dont get killed by avg joes having an opportunity to middle the books. Just my thoughts

tell me what u guys think

 

[Missy]

We think alike makes sense to me.

 

[BuddyWright]

The NUMBER was Texas-5 and will always be Texas -5 for the Book to move off of.

The Books will move up and down off the Number but if they move to or over the MAGIC NUMBER 7 then they take a chance depending on their handel on getting SIDED in Bookie speak.

Next week when Texas plays Texas Tex the Number will be Texas-15 unless Texas smokes Neb ass big then they would set it -21 and then the books will will take it from there. I suggest you just quit all the line movement bulls**t as that is really just a scammer bulls**t rap because if your an intelligent person and sit down and think about it for just a minute you will realize the only way to set a TRAP is if you know who is going to win and by how much.

One of my good buddies for many years in Vegas set the Vegas line every night and he couldn't pick a winning side more than half the time if you held a f**king gun to his head and I'm not making this up.

GoodLuck

Wait Buddy the MAN gets close to the line all the time.hahahaha He misses it as many as he gets close on but he only has to get close on 40% of the big action to clean up.

 

[BuddyWright]

Oh yea while I'm talking about lines you have to remember that LINES have to move in unison(yes there is a formula to move the line and MLs and teasers) to the ML and the all the Teaser lines.Meaning when they move one they have to move all of them or keep em all in ranges or get pounded by the sharps and arbs and syndicates betting all the sides etc.

Some of the line movement you see may be heavy Teaser action which in a Texas-6.5 ATS line will generate heavy Teaser action as in a 6 point Teaser you can put Texas at a ML equivalent if you like Texas so when the book has reached an
uncomfortable risk level in action he will move the Teaser line and that will move the ATS line unless he isn't getting any action to that side so he may move the ATS in the opposite direction back to the NUMBER to pick up some position there and that will move the ML and Blah,Blah so what I'm getting at is you can look at BOOKs handles and see the heavy action on Texas but it may mostly be on Texas in Teasers and see ATS line movement it has absolutely one f**king thing to do with who is going to win the ATS.

sorry I wish I could tell you to follow the money but the money is moving in many direction on many different plays and isn't really a good tool on picking ATS winners.Not that I have seen yet in 30 years and I chased the rainbow for many years looking for the secret system when I was younger and didn't know much(some of my friends say I knew more back then hahaha) and now I see all the same old scams and systems and money line movements,Blah,blah showing up every year after year. some things never change.hahaha


GoodLuck

 

[blgstocks]

Good post buddy,

I was just using Texas as an example since there was alot of talk about the line when it was at 6.5

I had a hard time following everything you said, but I am under the impression that you believe that vegas doesnt move the line to set a trap, but that there are many different reasons for them to move a line (i never thought about teasers).

Would you agree that heavy action on one side that is close to a middling # will not move the line over the # bbecause the books dont want to get sided?

 

[thom24ad]

The NUMBER was Texas-5 and will always be Texas -5 for the Book to move off of.

The Books will move up and down off the Number but if they move to or over the MAGIC NUMBER 7 then they take a chance depending on their handel on getting SIDED in Bookie speak.

Next week when Texas plays Texas Tex the Number will be Texas-15 unless Texas smokes Neb ass big then they would set it -21 and then the books will will take it from there. I suggest you just quit all the line movement bulls**t as that is really just a scammer bulls**t rap because if your an intelligent person and sit down and think about it for just a minute you will realize the only way to set a TRAP is if you know who is going to win and by how much.

One of my good buddies for many years in Vegas set the Vegas line every night and he couldn't pick a winning side more than half the time if you held a f**king gun to his head and I'm not making this up.

GoodLuck

Wait Buddy the MAN gets close to the line all the time.hahahaha He misses it as many as he gets close on but he only has to get close on 40% of the big action to clean up.

great post buddy...

 

[BuddyWright]

Maybe I didn't explain it well but your saying heavy action on one side the book doesn't want to move the line into a sided ATS position and I'm saying that heavy action may be heavy Teaser action and moving the line may put a Book in a serious position of getting sided on all their positions say a -3 line you move it to -7 then you will have guys bought off the -3 to make it -2.5 and guys teasing that -3 to make it +4 and guys buying the.5 on the other side to make the -3 a +3.5 and then you have guys Teasing the -3 to a +4 and on the other side the Teasing the - 3 to +10.5 and blah,balh, 0on and on so what I'm trying to show you is your only looking at getting sided on a ATS line and I'm trying to tell you on a 3,7,10,14,21 line all the lines close to the NUMBER the BOOK takes a chance on getting into a real serious situation of being sided on many positions by moving the line too much for too long in one direction and may move the line back in the other direction to reduce the risk on different positions and not on the ATS at all. That heavy action you see on the sights that show it may be heavy on the ML and Heavy on the 7.5 Teasers and low on the ATS so what I'm saying is the Book makes all kind of predetermined moves accourding to the position the handle puts them in and that my friend is a really a poor tool to use to try and figure out who is going to cover the ATS spread.

GoodLuck

 

[BuddyWright]

while I'm at it you see the word SHAPS thrown all over the NET.

In the old days a Book has a opening line and he let his BIG players usually a guy with a 50 dime credit line bet on the opening line and then he could adjust his action accourdingly.
That opening line was called a Sharpshooters line.It has been shorten down to sharps over the years.I hate to tell you guys this but most of the the guys betting the sharpshooters line were BOOKIES betting a position on a team that they knew their players would be betting heavily on so they were taking a position with a lower line and dealing that line out at a higher price.At the end of the day they would LAYOFF maybe back to the oppsite position they took that night to smooth their own position of risk.What I'm getting at the late money you see a lot of the time is smoothing position money and again it has nothing to do with LATE MONEY COMMING IN because some guy knows something.hahahah that is a scammers bulls*8t rap kinda like secret info on a game going off or that kind of horses**t.hahahaha

GoodLuck

 

[IX_Bender]

*No offense to any poster here, but...*


Ive said it time and time again.

People spend way too much time following the lines and the supposed consensus instead of handicapping the actual football games. Understanding line movement and knowing why things are going in a direction is certainly one of *many* tools that go into the process.

How about rushing yards, pass eff defense, kickers/special teams, reviewing press conferences and the like. Knowing teams strategies and gameplan are 100x more informative than any touted trend or steam movement.



Coaching changes, suspensions, injury status of starters and how capable the backups are, scheduling, travel, weather etc. etc. etc. There is simply so much to cover on every game that wondering if a line movement came based on some 'sharps, wiseguys, or joe public' is not something Im gonna speculate and waste time following. Its pointless.

Knowing that a line opened at 7 1/2, bet down to 6 then back up to 7 is great. If you know that much about the spread on that game, then you surely have a grip on the players and coaches. Next time someone spouts off about traps and line movements before a game, ask him if he can name at least one of the teams starting offensive linemen or perhaps tell me who their leading tackler is.

You won't be suprised.

 

[IntenseOperator]

while I'm at it you see the word SHAPS thrown all over the NET.

In the old days a Book has a opening line and he let his BIG players usually a guy with a 50 dime credit line bet on the opening line and then he could adjust his action accourdingly.
That opening line was called a Sharpshooters line.It has been shorten down to sharps over the years.I hate to tell you guys this but most of the the guys betting the sharpshooters line were BOOKIES betting a position on a team that they knew their players would be betting heavily on so they were taking a position with a lower line and dealing that line out at a higher price.At the end of the day they would LAYOFF maybe back to the oppsite position they took that night to smooth their own position of risk.What I'm getting at the late money you see a lot of the time is smoothing position money and again it has nothing to do with LATE MONEY COMMING IN because some guy knows something.hahahah that is a scammers bulls*8t rap kinda like secret info on a game going off or that kind of horses**t.hahahaha

GoodLuck

I've been doing very well betting against "late money" in the baseball playoffs

 

[blgstocks]

Man buddy, I really appreciate you taking the time to post in the thread, I get what your saying its just alot to take in(for me at least)

definitely alot of things I never thought about and had know idea about the "sharpshooters" which was very interesting.

How come you dont post here very often?
What does the SC stand for in your location?
What sports do you cap the most often?

Thanks again

 

[BuddyWright]

bigstocks S.C stands for South Carolina.hahaha

Io if you are doing well with it then my philosophy has always been anything that works then you ride that horse till it wont run anymore.hahaha

When Chicago was playing Arizona and losing 17-0 I needed Chicago to fill the ass end of a bunch of teasers so I pulled my old stuffed rooster out and put him in front to the TV and puff he Voodooed the Bears into a win.Now I know its Voodoo and all that but like I said above it if it works Ill keep on doing it.hahahaha

GoodLuck