A Single on Cup Day!

[LUCKY 7]

You probably wont get much for this horse, but he had a ton of run in his last workout:

Beat Hollow--I know he didn't look great in his last outing, but this horse has been working up a storm and will be sharp on Saturday.

If the turf is wet or not this horse will be a solid single on a wide open card.

 

[Valuist]

I think Beat Hollow will be an underlay at AP on Saturday. He won the Million there but there was a total of one neck separating the top 4 horses in that race and Landseer just beat him at Kee. The Europeans are supposed to be loaded and Rock of Gibraltor is supposed to be their best horse. Nice photo of this horse in the BC past perfs; very, very powerful looking colt. He may run in the Classic instead (why??). But at least we know Beat Hollow likes the course. GL

 

[Valuist]

It sounds like Rock of Gibraltor may go in the Classic instead. Kinda liking Beat Hollow a bit more than before. Landseer will make his 3rd trans-Atlantic flight in a month and he didn't beat Beat Hollow by much at Kee.

 

[Guerilla_Ninja]

ROG is not going to the classic to place. i am amazed by this as well and will wait for post draws to see if this is fact. ROG would be my pick on turf for sure. but, i sense a decent price for this horse on dirt. but, for the proven ability on grass??? i guess the money talks.

as far as beat hollow, proven no doubt. but, not going to put that horse on top yet.

i will make a serious post here on 10/25 eve.

see you guys then!

valuist, you make a decision on where you'll be on 10/26? just curious. if it is the oak brook OTB, i wouldn't mind saying hello. that afternoon will be the beginning of my cousins bachelor party. i'm certain way too much fun will be had

btw, i have a friend who, of all things, owns a port-o-potti business and is supplying for the BC. i've been up there for a few morning works already. its been pretty cool, i get an "all access" tag and walk the barns, etc... some good autographs, insight.

 

[LUCKY 7]

I know some may not agree w/me, but I am happy to see Rock of Gibralter in the Mile. Aiden O'brien does have a great horse that does well at a mile and on the turf, but IMO there are a few factors that make Beat Hollow the best bet on the day:

---with Rock of Gibralter in the race now, the morning line for Beat Hollow is a big fat jucy 6-1.

---Bobby Frankel has undoubtly had the best ever turf year for any trainer.(Don't forget there was a point in the year if Frankel had a turf horse in a graded stakes event he had a 70% chance of winning.) damn right that deserves

---Jerry Bailey is Bobby's go to man. He now knows this horse really well.

---I know it could work against Beat Hollow, but it could also work in his favor that 14 horses are slated to go.

---IMO the Shadwell was a prep for the BC mile, and Beat Hollow didn't lose by that much. He knows the distance and how to run it now.

 

[Valuist]

Guerrilla-

Yeah, we got to meet up sometime at Oakbrook but there probably will be better Saturdays than this one coming up. I'm not crazy about huge crowds, so I'm going to Trackside at Arl. early on and hopefully will be out by 9:30 or so. I want to catch College Gameday in the morning before the races get going.

Lucky- ROG will definitely help the price of Beat Hollow. ROck of Gibraltor does look like the horse to beat and is supposed to be a total monster BUT I have seen a few of these so-called "unbeatable" horses lose. I remember in 1986 they said a British horse named Dancing Brave was the best Euro horse in 25 years. I remember betting the top U.S. horse (Manila) who won and paid around $21. But when these "unbeatable" horses got beat, they were almost always Euro horses who were running under very warm conditions, which will not happen on Saturday. Still, there is a chance that the long plane trip could sap him, or he may not like the left hand turn-course. I also could envision him winning at 1-1 but some huge longshots run 2nd or 3rd and the exacta pays over $100. Frankel is the best turf trainer in North America BUT he is only 1 for 42 in the Breeder's Cup and that win finally came last year. GL.

Weather for Saturday: partly cloudy high around 59. Should be a fast main track, although we could get some showers here on THursday and Friday. I'll update the weather situation tomorrow. If we get rain at all, the turf could be soft or yielding for Saturday.

 

[SeattleSlew]

'Rock' is now certain for the Mile..
The reason they were thinking about the Classic is because of stud value. He has proven everything at mile on the weeds, but to get added distance on dirt would triple his value..

It's too bad he's not in the Classic because it would make the Mile a much more open event.

I agree that Beat Hollow will be a decent overlay, but you could make the case for a lot of these horses. Forbidden Apple only lost to Beat Hollow by a neck and will be at a better price. Landseer will also be around the same price and won the last meeting against Beat Hollow..plus, Beat seems to better at a little bit longer distance..
But I will never try to talk someone off of a Frankel long shot......he can pull off the big ones, even as an underdog...

If you are looking for big bombs for the second spot: Domedriver, Green Fee, Del Mar Show, Aldebran, Nuclear Debate would all pay very well even underneath 'Rock'..


SLEW