A Trend Worth Looking At......

[STEEL CITY SELECTIONS]

guys....ill call this my 'national championship hopes are over trend'

each yr. this about 10-schools [your pwerhouses]that go into the season with a legit goal of going undefeated and winning the title....as season goes along a few other teams by going undefeated will fall into this category and they too will believe they have a real shot at nat. champ.....agree?

what ive noticed is that when these teams finally do get upset and there hopes of nat. champ. are gone....most people believe they are pissed and will come out the next week and want to crush someone.....so most bettors will be all over this team.

if you look at how its gone this yr.....that reasoning is not true....actually the opposite takes place.....these teams who have just had thir season ruined....are not pissed, but so distraught over all their hard work being wasted.....they go into next game in a major emotional funk or letdown.....imagine how you would feel if you spent months and months busting your ass to achieve a goal and bam its over...all your efforts wasted....its got to be tough on these kids.

anyway.....lets look at how teams in this spot have done in next game and also how the teams who upset them did.

1st example....
pitt. beats vtech.....
next week.......vtech loses to syr.
pitt. no-cover vs. temple.
result 0-2 ats

2nd example.....
bc. beats ndame.....
next week.....nd. no-cover vs. navy
bc. no-cover vs. wvu
reult 0-2 ats.

3rd example......
okla beats texas....
next week......tex. no cover vs. kan.st.
not counting okla game in next week...since their winwasnt an upset.
result.....0-1

4th example......
gtech beats then 9-0 ncst....
next game......ncst. loses to myd.
gtech push vs. flast.
result 0-1

5th example......
nebraska loses to penn st...
next game......neb. loses to iowast.
again....not tracking pennst result as not an upset...
result......0-1

6th example....
kansas st. loses to colorado....
next game.....kst pounds okst. 44-9....kst covers...
rsult....1-0

keep in mind....i did this pretty fast this am. so i may have missed 1 or 2...but as u can see....it looks like a decent angle to use.....
i know everyone in the country is on oklahoma today....i know its tough to take baylor.....but im gonna wait till kick-off and get best number i can find on baylor....okla. will sleepwalk thru this game...
im also going to play missouri over tex. am....looking for let-down from aggies after big win.

just something to think about for okla. backers today....and fr future use.

gluck, burgh..

 

[ddubs]

WOW, excellent post. Very interesting angle indeed. Thanks for sharing the info, burgh.

Good luck today.

 

[PARROTTHEAD]

Good point of view, wonder what that trend has done in past years????

Any thoughts on the games today?????

 

[PARROTTHEAD]

DOES BOWLING GREEN FALL INTO THIS............OR DID THEY EVER REALLY THINK THEY HAD A CHANCE AT THE TITLE????

THE PLAY A TOUGH ONE TODAY.....ANY THOUGHTS????

 

[Jaycadd]

Big 12 Kid

Big 12 Kid

I would be careful there. I like your train of thought, but Texas DID cover against KState the next game b/c I played that exact angle. I live in Waco and went out and met the team (OU) last night and talked to a couple of guys. They are VERY focused on what they have to do. Have watched Baylor play almost all of their games this year and this team is honestly no good. The local sports writers rank them in the High School top ten, and usually towards the bottom.

You are going to see Nate Hybl play the first half then Paul Thompson come out the second half. They traveled the full second sqaud, and these boys have something to prove.

Baylor has not covered a spread this season and after the head coach getting fired last week, there is little motivation. In Kevin Steele's press conference Tuesday, he stated that this was the LAST team he wanted to play right now.

Following the BIG loss to Nebraska last year, OU came back the next week and beat Tulsa 58-0.

It is hard for guys out there to understand how bad Baylor really is. I am experiencing it! The town, the university and the students are not behind this Baylor team.

Lay the wood!

OU 77 Baylor 0

:thefinger

 

[Jaycadd]

Weather

Weather

By the way, beautiful weather today. Sunshine and a cool 50 degrees. Good Bear killing weather!!

 

[STEEL CITY SELECTIONS]

THANKS... jaycadd for the heads up....not going crazy on my baylor play...just wanted to throw out this angle for today and future reference....i realize baylor is horrible.....but i will take a shot on them.

my bad on tex/kan.st result....threw this togother real fast this morning...i thougght texas was favored by 3.5 at kan. st.....ill have to go back and find out closing line.

thanks and gluck all, burgh.

 

[djv]

SES you sent me looking hard for data on this subject. Sorry did not find it. But my old memory tells me you have a system that has worked for some time. But there was more to it. I wish i could tie it down for you. It was something like if on the road the next week. Or at home and again a Favorite type info. But yes what you have there I believe if some one else can jump and help out is a good system. I call this more of a system and a play on emotion then a trend play. This is much stronger then a trend play. When you find ways to measure emotion it can be a very big help.

 

[CrazyHorse]

posted a similar angle in my thread on tuesday but here is what I found:


since 1988 teams that start the yr 5-0 or better before losing to screw up their perfect season are 43-65-2 ATS in the following game.


That was going into last week with VA Tech, Notre Dame, GA, and NC St fitting the angle and all lost last week ATS xcept for NC St (and they were the only underdog of the 4). So it is now 44-68-2 ATS after this past weekend.

So this week we have Baylor and Bowling Green. I am going with Baylor but not against BGU as they are a dog

 

[michaeljbird]

Hey bro, I agree it has to let the air out of the balloon for alot of teams,but in you example's there are 2 error's 1-Texas did cover vs. K st. and N.C. State did cover vs. Maryland.:shrug:

 

[STEEL CITY SELECTIONS]

thanks crazy horse....that maybe the system djv is refering to...your system makes sense...i also like to play against the team in next game that pulled off the upset....seems to be pretty decent as well.

as far as my mistakes...i did say i threw this togother very fast this morning....so sorry about that.....regardless, it seems like a nice angle to use when capping your plays....i especially like, that in most cases your goin to get a favorable line because public is always all over the other side.

gluck, burgh....

 

[jmizeus]

stee, very interesting thread...i have always noticed the same thing...and the public thinks the same that a team will come out the next week and crush some one! anyhow i always thought the same as u thinking that the team will be flat the next time out!

very good job.should have tracked it myself gl

 

[BobbyBlueChip]

Don't have a database, but while listening to the GaTech-Duke barnburner on internet radio, I had some time to do some manual data mining because I have always thought the way Steel City does mainly due to what I've seen in the NFL once teams lose after they've won 4 or more in a row.

Looking at all BCS conference teams that started out the year with at least 7 wins, the results ATS for the years 1997-2001 for the next week are as follows:

Year/Team/Who they lost to/opp. next week/spread/score/ATS result
1998/Ohio State/L to MSU/at Iowa/-25/45-14/W
1997/Penn State/L to UofM/at Purdue/-6/42-17/W
1999/Penn State/L to Minny/vs. Mich/-6/ 27-31/L
1998/Wisconsin/L to UofM/vs PSU/-1.5/24-3/W
1999/Mississippi State/L to Bama/at Ark/7.5/9-14/W
1999/Kansas State/L to UNL/vs. Mizzou/-26/66-0/W
2000/Nebraska/L to OU/vs. KU/-31/56-17/W
2001/Oklahoma/L to UNL/vs. Tulsa/-41/58-0/W
1997/Washington State/L to ASU/vs SWLa/-46/77-7/W
2000/Clemson/L to GT/at FSU/19/7-54/L
2001/Maryland/L to FSU/vs. Troy/-22.5/47-14/W
1997/North Carolina/L to FSU/at Clemson/-6/17-10/W
2000/Virginia Tech/L to Miami/at UCF/-12/44-21/W

So teams that have won 7 straight or more coming back after their initial loss (if that next game is a regular season game) are a combined 11-2 ATS. Didn't think that the old adage "They're gonna be pissed off after their first loss" would hold true, but it has been profitable over the previous 5 years, albeit with a small sample.

 

[heleanth]

I know that Phil Steele of Northcoast Sports places alot of weight in what he calls the "Unbeaten Letdown" theory, where the week after a team in beaten for the first time, you would play against them again. I don't have the stats but it has been successful over the years.

 

[TJBELL]

Nice job Burgh!!! Thanks for sharing that with us. great trend info!!!

 

[STEEL CITY SELECTIONS]

well...tough loss with baylor today fellas...i waited and got them at +39.5....they score late for the sweet-ass backdoor cover and for some unknown reason the jagoffs go for 2-pt conversion and of course dont get it....WHY?????????????????????......YOUR DOWN 40 PTS!!!!.....KICK THE XTRA POINT!!

hopefullly missouri holds on in overtime for me.

thanks for all the replies and good info supplied....still think its a nice angle to use in certain spots......it needs researched more ...broken down more....home/away....fav./dog.....etc....im sure theres a nice winning spot for this.

gluck all, burgh...

 

[jmizeus]

burgh, it might be interesting to see how texas does there next time out? ranked 3rd in the nation going into todays game vs texas tech and lose-losing any chance for a national championship

g;l