2nd half performance article. Taken from another forum by Hawk 32. Thoughts?
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heres an article i came across on yahoo sports. its intended for fantasy baseball, but is very useful for our purposes as well. it gives alot of pitchers who either deserve a better era or are pitching way over their heads. it doesnt give the exact formulas for the numbers givne but it has alot to do with allowing baserunners, also factoring in other variables(colon's conditioning, etc). could be a good tool for finding some go against guys who will be heavy chalk in the 2nd half. something to keep an eye on.
ARTICLE
You're watching Elmer Dessens on TV, and he's walking a tightrope. C'mon! He's gotta have an ERA around six, right? You hit the Internet. Wrong! You find out he has a 2.58 ERA, one of the best in baseball.
But this is Elmer Dessens! That 2.58 ERA can't be legit, can it? Actually, you're right. Elmer is walking a tightrope this season, and even if he changes his last name to Wallenda, he's gonna suffer a slip-and-fall real soon.
At this time of year, you've put half of your pitching staff's season in the bank. Now's a good time to sell the overachievers and buy some underachievers, right? But how do you pick the candidates to buy and sell? Please read on. ...
This is roto geekery, but there's actually a way to figure out what a pitcher's ERA should be based on how many batters he's faced and how many baserunners and total bases he has allowed. I'm not going to bog you down with a bunch of math (write in if you are that curious), but trust me on this one: If a pitcher allows a pile of baserunners and extra-base hits, he should have a high ERA. If he doesn't do these things, he should have a low ERA.
Anyway, I did the math on every pitcher with at least 25 innings pitched this season, and below are some guys who are worth acquiring or dumping.
GETTING BETTER
These guys have pitched better than their ERAs indicate. Note: All stats are through July 3.
Roger Clemens, Yankees. He's working awfully hard, but his ERA should be almost a run lower than it's current level (4.20). As I said last week, Joe Torre needs to ease up on Rocket a bit, but Rocket has been great all year -- even if the stats say otherwise.
Matt Clement, Cubs. He's been a revelation this year, but his ERA should be an even more revelatory 2.93. If there's an unbeliever in your league, relieve him of Clement ASAP.
Frank Castillo, Red Sox.In most leagues, you can probably get this guy for a soiled diaper. If you watch him pitch, you'll know why: His stuff is as sexy as Rich Garces in a Speedo. Don't matter, tho'. Frankie C. should have a 3.59 ERA. If he maintains his current level of performance, he'll be a big help in Round Two.
Kelvim Escobar, Blue Jays. He's been mediocre as a closer this season, but his ERA should be in the high threes.
Keith Foulke, White Sox. Yeah, he's not doing great by his own standards, but that's only if you consider a 3.75 ERA substandard. Jerry Manuel had no business taking the closer's job away from Keith, because Keithy's still doing Foulkie-dokie (sorry). I expect Foulke to go on a tear in the second half and finish with an ERA around 2.50-2.80.
Freddy Garcia, Mariners. This incredibly consistent hurler is pitching as well as he did last season when he led the AL with a 3.05 ERA. If not for a recent bashing, his ERA would be around 2.80.
Derek Lowe, Pedro Martinez, Red Sox. This staff is Lowe-ded (ouch). Derek's ERA should be 1.84(!), and Pedro's should be 2.53. Wowsers. Expect Lowe to slide a bit in the second half, but look for Pedro to remain consistent. Pedro's workload is much, much lower than it was from 1995-2001.
Kevin Millwood, Braves. He's back and pitching well, right? Actually, he's even better than that. Don't be surprised if he cuts his ERA by a third of a run after the All-Star Game.
Eric Milton, Twins. He's pitching as well as he did last year. Yeah, his ERA is 5.32, but it should be in the low fours (it was 4.32 last season). Don't be surprised if he goes on a run in the second half.
Mike Mussina, Yankees. This just in: Mussina's a stud. It doesn't matter, though, does it? It's human nature to worry, and when a premier pitcher such as Mussina falters, it's easy for us to go, "Hey, it was only a matter of time before he fell apart, right?!" Wrong. He should have an ERA around 3.70.
Antonio Osuna, White Sox. Since Jerry Manuel's writing out the lineup card, he will give Osuna some save opps as long as Osuna pitches well. Osuna's ERA is 4.12, but it should be 2.87. Don't be afraid to keep this guy active.
Odalis Perez, Dodgers. It sickens me to say this (because Odalis has been incredible in the first half), but he has pitched even better than you think. His ERA should be around 2.00. Yikes. I don't think he can keep it up, but I don't see how his overall ERA will surpass 3.00 unless he pitches hurt or something.
Ryan Rupe, Devil Rays. He's currently hurt; he's been overworked a bit, and he has been a massive failure coming into this season. All true, but his ERA should be 3.65, not 5.54. In deep leagues, keep an eye on him.
C.C. Sabathia, Indians. He's still bringing a 5.04 ERA to the mound each time out, but his ERA will likely be a run lower in the second half.
Curt Schilling, Diamondbacks. Here's a guy who has been drilled a couple of times and been brilliant every other time. He should have an ERA around 2.50. With a bit of luck, he might deliver that ERA in the second half.
Jason Schmidt, Giants. His ERA should be around 3.00 instead of 3.75, but with his injury history and current workload, I'd expect him to get hurt. He complained of elbow soreness his last time out. Avoid.
John Smoltz, Braves. If I had to speculate, I'd say that the method I'm using to rate these guys does a good job of spotting pitchers who have generally been great but have been ravaged in a few outings. Mr. Smoltz falls into that category. His ERA has been ransacked a coupla times, but otherwise, he has done the pillaging. His ERA should be 3.34, not hovering around 4.50.
Kerry Wood, Cubs. His strikeout rate is worrisome, as is his command, but the bottom line: His ERA should be under 3.00 (not 4.12).
RUN FOR YOUR LIFE
Here are some of the guys likely to slip during the second half:
Kevin Appier, Angels. Please don't wait around for a second-half surge. Yeah, his ERA is 4.69 right now. Problem is he has pitched poorly enough to deserve a 5.30 ERA. Trade him before you get scalded.
John Burkett, Red Sox. That sojourn in Atlanta turned him into Greg Maddux Lite, but Johnny's turning back into Charcoal Burkett before our very eyes. He has pitched like a guy with a 5.00 ERA, but through luck (and a pact with the forces of darkness?), his ERA is 3.80.
Bartolo Colon, Expos. He's pitched like a guy with a 3.17 ERA. Hey, that's great, but first-half Bartolo owners got a 2.48 ERA from him. He's chunky; his true performance level hasn't really changed; he has been overworked, and he's a good candidate to fall apart in the second half. Remember, if Colon has a 3.70 ERA at season's end, that means some sap got stuck with a 4.92 ERA in the second half.
Elmer Dessens, Reds. With normal luck, Elmer would have a 3.93 ERA. In 2000, he had a 4.28 ERA; in 2001, it was 4.48. Sell now.
Tom Glavine, Braves. Glavine is doing very well, but his 2002 performance is similar to his typical Cy Young runs. In other words, his ERA should be just under 3.00, not 1.99. Expect him to return to mortality in July-September.
Kevin Gryboski, Kerry Ligtenberg, Braves. Both of these guys have sub-2.00 ERAs, but should have ERAs in the three range. They'll slide in the second half, so slide them gently onto the curb.
Matt Herges, Expos. You know who you are, you got a handful of saves from Matty Herg in April-May, and you don't trust that shifty-eyed Scott Stewart feller. Problem is, Herges' ERA should be around 5.50. Do the math, then go cut Hergy.
Tomokazu Ohka, Expos. Yeah, yeah, he's one of the feel-good stories of the year, but that 3.30 ERA should be slightly over 4.00.
Joel Pineiro, Mariners. I love this guy, but you have to expect his performance to decline in the second half unless he takes his game up a notch. His ERA should be in the 3.50-3.75 range.
Andy Pettitte, Yankees. I can give you about 20 reasons to avoid Pettitte right now: elbow trouble, bad mechanics, a very high pitch count in his last game, and the fact his ERA should be almost five.
Jason Simontacchi, Cardinals. Don't get me wrong, he's a solid pitcher, but Mr. Simontacchi is unworthy of his 2.77 ERA. If you've got him active and you're in a shallow league, dump him. In deeper leagues, feel free to keep pitching him but expect him to finish the season with an ERA around 3.90-4.20.
There are plenty more pitchers I can talk about, but in the interest of saving time, I present the following list. Check it out and see if there's anyone in there you should acquire or dump. A positive ERA differential means the guy has pitched better than his ERA indicates. A negative ERA differential means the guy has an ERA that is deceptively good.
PLAYER Expected ERA Actual ERA ERA differential
Williamson, Scott 2.91 4.83 1.92
Politte, Cliff 2.31 3.57 1.25
Rhodes, Arthur 2.32 3.07 0.75
Prior, Mark 3.49 4.17 0.68
Person, Robert 4.29 4.96 0.67
Moss, Damian 2.82 3.41 0.60
Isringhausen, Jason 2.01 2.61 0.60
Daal, Omar 2.80 3.39 0.59
Valdes, Ismael 3.41 3.95 0.54
Schoeneweis, Scott 4.92 5.44 0.52
Mota, Guillermo 2.19 2.67 0.48
Johnson, Jason M. 3.27 3.74 0.47
Duckworth, Brandon 4.11 4.56 0.46
Helling, Rick 3.94 4.37 0.43
Nen, Robb 1.33 1.70 0.38
Santana, Johan 2.32 2.65 0.33
Kim, Byung-Hyun 2.21 2.47 0.26
Johnson, Randy 2.85 2.46 -0.39
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heres an article i came across on yahoo sports. its intended for fantasy baseball, but is very useful for our purposes as well. it gives alot of pitchers who either deserve a better era or are pitching way over their heads. it doesnt give the exact formulas for the numbers givne but it has alot to do with allowing baserunners, also factoring in other variables(colon's conditioning, etc). could be a good tool for finding some go against guys who will be heavy chalk in the 2nd half. something to keep an eye on.
ARTICLE
You're watching Elmer Dessens on TV, and he's walking a tightrope. C'mon! He's gotta have an ERA around six, right? You hit the Internet. Wrong! You find out he has a 2.58 ERA, one of the best in baseball.
But this is Elmer Dessens! That 2.58 ERA can't be legit, can it? Actually, you're right. Elmer is walking a tightrope this season, and even if he changes his last name to Wallenda, he's gonna suffer a slip-and-fall real soon.
At this time of year, you've put half of your pitching staff's season in the bank. Now's a good time to sell the overachievers and buy some underachievers, right? But how do you pick the candidates to buy and sell? Please read on. ...
This is roto geekery, but there's actually a way to figure out what a pitcher's ERA should be based on how many batters he's faced and how many baserunners and total bases he has allowed. I'm not going to bog you down with a bunch of math (write in if you are that curious), but trust me on this one: If a pitcher allows a pile of baserunners and extra-base hits, he should have a high ERA. If he doesn't do these things, he should have a low ERA.
Anyway, I did the math on every pitcher with at least 25 innings pitched this season, and below are some guys who are worth acquiring or dumping.
GETTING BETTER
These guys have pitched better than their ERAs indicate. Note: All stats are through July 3.
Roger Clemens, Yankees. He's working awfully hard, but his ERA should be almost a run lower than it's current level (4.20). As I said last week, Joe Torre needs to ease up on Rocket a bit, but Rocket has been great all year -- even if the stats say otherwise.
Matt Clement, Cubs. He's been a revelation this year, but his ERA should be an even more revelatory 2.93. If there's an unbeliever in your league, relieve him of Clement ASAP.
Frank Castillo, Red Sox.In most leagues, you can probably get this guy for a soiled diaper. If you watch him pitch, you'll know why: His stuff is as sexy as Rich Garces in a Speedo. Don't matter, tho'. Frankie C. should have a 3.59 ERA. If he maintains his current level of performance, he'll be a big help in Round Two.
Kelvim Escobar, Blue Jays. He's been mediocre as a closer this season, but his ERA should be in the high threes.
Keith Foulke, White Sox. Yeah, he's not doing great by his own standards, but that's only if you consider a 3.75 ERA substandard. Jerry Manuel had no business taking the closer's job away from Keith, because Keithy's still doing Foulkie-dokie (sorry). I expect Foulke to go on a tear in the second half and finish with an ERA around 2.50-2.80.
Freddy Garcia, Mariners. This incredibly consistent hurler is pitching as well as he did last season when he led the AL with a 3.05 ERA. If not for a recent bashing, his ERA would be around 2.80.
Derek Lowe, Pedro Martinez, Red Sox. This staff is Lowe-ded (ouch). Derek's ERA should be 1.84(!), and Pedro's should be 2.53. Wowsers. Expect Lowe to slide a bit in the second half, but look for Pedro to remain consistent. Pedro's workload is much, much lower than it was from 1995-2001.
Kevin Millwood, Braves. He's back and pitching well, right? Actually, he's even better than that. Don't be surprised if he cuts his ERA by a third of a run after the All-Star Game.
Eric Milton, Twins. He's pitching as well as he did last year. Yeah, his ERA is 5.32, but it should be in the low fours (it was 4.32 last season). Don't be surprised if he goes on a run in the second half.
Mike Mussina, Yankees. This just in: Mussina's a stud. It doesn't matter, though, does it? It's human nature to worry, and when a premier pitcher such as Mussina falters, it's easy for us to go, "Hey, it was only a matter of time before he fell apart, right?!" Wrong. He should have an ERA around 3.70.
Antonio Osuna, White Sox. Since Jerry Manuel's writing out the lineup card, he will give Osuna some save opps as long as Osuna pitches well. Osuna's ERA is 4.12, but it should be 2.87. Don't be afraid to keep this guy active.
Odalis Perez, Dodgers. It sickens me to say this (because Odalis has been incredible in the first half), but he has pitched even better than you think. His ERA should be around 2.00. Yikes. I don't think he can keep it up, but I don't see how his overall ERA will surpass 3.00 unless he pitches hurt or something.
Ryan Rupe, Devil Rays. He's currently hurt; he's been overworked a bit, and he has been a massive failure coming into this season. All true, but his ERA should be 3.65, not 5.54. In deep leagues, keep an eye on him.
C.C. Sabathia, Indians. He's still bringing a 5.04 ERA to the mound each time out, but his ERA will likely be a run lower in the second half.
Curt Schilling, Diamondbacks. Here's a guy who has been drilled a couple of times and been brilliant every other time. He should have an ERA around 2.50. With a bit of luck, he might deliver that ERA in the second half.
Jason Schmidt, Giants. His ERA should be around 3.00 instead of 3.75, but with his injury history and current workload, I'd expect him to get hurt. He complained of elbow soreness his last time out. Avoid.
John Smoltz, Braves. If I had to speculate, I'd say that the method I'm using to rate these guys does a good job of spotting pitchers who have generally been great but have been ravaged in a few outings. Mr. Smoltz falls into that category. His ERA has been ransacked a coupla times, but otherwise, he has done the pillaging. His ERA should be 3.34, not hovering around 4.50.
Kerry Wood, Cubs. His strikeout rate is worrisome, as is his command, but the bottom line: His ERA should be under 3.00 (not 4.12).
RUN FOR YOUR LIFE
Here are some of the guys likely to slip during the second half:
Kevin Appier, Angels. Please don't wait around for a second-half surge. Yeah, his ERA is 4.69 right now. Problem is he has pitched poorly enough to deserve a 5.30 ERA. Trade him before you get scalded.
John Burkett, Red Sox. That sojourn in Atlanta turned him into Greg Maddux Lite, but Johnny's turning back into Charcoal Burkett before our very eyes. He has pitched like a guy with a 5.00 ERA, but through luck (and a pact with the forces of darkness?), his ERA is 3.80.
Bartolo Colon, Expos. He's pitched like a guy with a 3.17 ERA. Hey, that's great, but first-half Bartolo owners got a 2.48 ERA from him. He's chunky; his true performance level hasn't really changed; he has been overworked, and he's a good candidate to fall apart in the second half. Remember, if Colon has a 3.70 ERA at season's end, that means some sap got stuck with a 4.92 ERA in the second half.
Elmer Dessens, Reds. With normal luck, Elmer would have a 3.93 ERA. In 2000, he had a 4.28 ERA; in 2001, it was 4.48. Sell now.
Tom Glavine, Braves. Glavine is doing very well, but his 2002 performance is similar to his typical Cy Young runs. In other words, his ERA should be just under 3.00, not 1.99. Expect him to return to mortality in July-September.
Kevin Gryboski, Kerry Ligtenberg, Braves. Both of these guys have sub-2.00 ERAs, but should have ERAs in the three range. They'll slide in the second half, so slide them gently onto the curb.
Matt Herges, Expos. You know who you are, you got a handful of saves from Matty Herg in April-May, and you don't trust that shifty-eyed Scott Stewart feller. Problem is, Herges' ERA should be around 5.50. Do the math, then go cut Hergy.
Tomokazu Ohka, Expos. Yeah, yeah, he's one of the feel-good stories of the year, but that 3.30 ERA should be slightly over 4.00.
Joel Pineiro, Mariners. I love this guy, but you have to expect his performance to decline in the second half unless he takes his game up a notch. His ERA should be in the 3.50-3.75 range.
Andy Pettitte, Yankees. I can give you about 20 reasons to avoid Pettitte right now: elbow trouble, bad mechanics, a very high pitch count in his last game, and the fact his ERA should be almost five.
Jason Simontacchi, Cardinals. Don't get me wrong, he's a solid pitcher, but Mr. Simontacchi is unworthy of his 2.77 ERA. If you've got him active and you're in a shallow league, dump him. In deeper leagues, feel free to keep pitching him but expect him to finish the season with an ERA around 3.90-4.20.
There are plenty more pitchers I can talk about, but in the interest of saving time, I present the following list. Check it out and see if there's anyone in there you should acquire or dump. A positive ERA differential means the guy has pitched better than his ERA indicates. A negative ERA differential means the guy has an ERA that is deceptively good.
PLAYER Expected ERA Actual ERA ERA differential
Williamson, Scott 2.91 4.83 1.92
Politte, Cliff 2.31 3.57 1.25
Rhodes, Arthur 2.32 3.07 0.75
Prior, Mark 3.49 4.17 0.68
Person, Robert 4.29 4.96 0.67
Moss, Damian 2.82 3.41 0.60
Isringhausen, Jason 2.01 2.61 0.60
Daal, Omar 2.80 3.39 0.59
Valdes, Ismael 3.41 3.95 0.54
Schoeneweis, Scott 4.92 5.44 0.52
Mota, Guillermo 2.19 2.67 0.48
Johnson, Jason M. 3.27 3.74 0.47
Duckworth, Brandon 4.11 4.56 0.46
Helling, Rick 3.94 4.37 0.43
Nen, Robb 1.33 1.70 0.38
Santana, Johan 2.32 2.65 0.33
Kim, Byung-Hyun 2.21 2.47 0.26
Johnson, Randy 2.85 2.46 -0.39
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