NCAA Bowl Season YTD: 0-3 (-3.30*)
NCAA Regular Season YTD: 59-62 (-9.70*)
NFL Regular Season YTD: 51-45 (+1.65*)
Top Plays (included above): 3-1 (+2.85*)
The MAC teams who are we thought they were, going 0-4 SU and ATS this Bowl season. Courtesy of the MAC, the teams with the more difficult schedule are 6-2 SU and ATS this Bowl season.
Maryland(+3)(-128) over Marshall (1*)
- - I can't claim credit for this write-up:
Marshall's offense is one of the most explosive in college football as its average of 43 points per game is the seventh best among FBS programs. Also, Marshall ranks 13th nationally in total yards of offense per game at 502.3. However, they are coming off one of their worst performances of the season. The Herd finished the C-USA Championship with only 371 total offensive yards in a blowout loss to Rice.
The Terps have a solid defense that surrenders 366.9 total yards of offense and 24.8 points per game along with 36 sacks. Florida State and Clemson were the only two opponents that scored more than 34 points against Maryland. Also note that top CB Jeremiah Johnson should play here. Offensively, the Terps rank 8th out of 14 teams in the ACC in total yards per game (397) and points per game (26.7).
The Herd has been notoriously bad on the road being 2-12-2 as visiting chalk since 2004; and are 1-5 this year as an away or neutral favorite. More importantly, Marshall has a 1-9 SU all time mark versus the ACC. Finally, Maryland HC Edsall notched some upset wins over Toledo (2004 Motor City Bowl) & South Carolina (2009 PapaJohn?s Bowl) when he was UConn?s head coach. Maryland has a solid schedule edge in this matchup, I think the wrong team is favored.
Link: Randy Edsall, Maryland end ACC run:
http://www.norwichbulletin.com/article/20131226/SPORTS/131229776/10321/SPORTS
Syracuse(+3') over Minnesota (1*)
- - I can't claim credit for this write-up:
Minnesota holds a 3-1 (2-2 ATS) series lead and these teams met last year as Minny won 17-10 (+1?) at home (note that SU did easily outgain Minnesota in the game). The Gophers make their 2nd straight Texas Bowl appearance as they lost to Texas Tech here last year 34-31, but easily covered as a 13-pt dog. Syracuse are making their 1st appearance at the Texas Bowl and it is also their 1st bowl under Shafer.
Syracuse is led by its 39th ranked rushing offense. The Orange are averaging 193.8 rushing yards per game, on 4.6 yards per carry. However, they are averaging just 181.5 yards passing per game and have thrown 17 interceptions against only 13 touchdowns. Terrel Hunt (1,450 yards, 10 TDs) has been the leading passer on the team. Hunt presents a real problem of the opposition with his ability to run the ball, as he finished second on the team with 426 yards and five scores.
Defensively, Syracuse is strong against the run ranking 26th, only allowing 138.3 ypg. They are only giving up 3.9 ypc to opposing teams.
Minnesota also relies on the ground game. The Golden Gophers have the 34th ranked rushing attack. They are averaging an impressive 200.9 ypg and have tallied 23 rushing scores. Passing is not a strong facet of Minnesota's offensive attack. Phillip Nelson (1,288 yards, 9 TDs) was the team's main option under center. His numbers were very modest. The Golden Gophers only threw the ball 237 times this season. A look at the Gophers big offensive point outbursts this year (40pts +) shows they did it against the 101st, 105th, 123rd, and 126th teams in total defense.
A win would give the Gophers a 9-win season for just the 2nd time in the last 108 years!
Syracuse are 11-3-1 SU and 11-4 ATS in bowl games since 1988 and looking for their 3rd bowl win in the last 4 years.
The 109th offense is laying points, so I?m taking the better defense.
Washington(-4) over BYU (1*)
- - I can't claim credit for this write-up:
Washington last won nine games in 2000, when Marques Tuiasosopo was behind center. U-Dub will try to reach the mark in San Francisco, ironically enough, with Tuiasosopo acting as his alma mater?s interim coach.
Steve Sarkisian didn?t make it to the end of his fifth season in Seattle, opting on Dec. 2 to become the permanent successor to longtime friend Lane Kiffin at USC. While Chris Petersen has been hired to supplant Sark on Montlake, Tuiasosopo will coach the Huskies in the Fight Hunger Bowl. It?s been an up-and-down year for Washington; Great at home, but vulnerable on the road. Hot in September, yet cold in October. Unbeaten versus unranked opponents, but winless against Top 25 teams. Hey, at least U-Dub won?t be saddled with a middling 7-6 mark for a fourth consecutive year, having already won eight games.
BYU enters its finale battle-tested, well-traveled and a little weary. The Cougars have played games in just about every corner of the map, from Virginia to Nevada and from Wisconsin to Houston. In all, the season was a disappointment in Provo, with the team never scaling beyond average. Sure, there was the early upset of Texas, but BYU also lost to a bad Virginia team, fell to rival Utah in the Holy War and couldn?t break through against ranked Wisconsin and Notre Dame. The best the Cougars can hope for now is to earn a fifth straight postseason win under Bronco Mendenhall.
Players to Watch: In a game that?ll be littered with next-level stars, Washington RB Bishop Sankey will attempt to be the best of a very deep bunch. The Doak Walker Award finalist has rushed for 1,775 yards and 18 touchdowns on 306 carries in what was likely his final year as an amateur. He?ll be going head-to-head with a BYU defense that?s yielded just nine rushing touchdowns and is flush in gifted linebackers. Kyle Van Noy, in particular, is a dynamite playmaker, with a tremendous future on Sundays.
The Cougars will grind out yards on the ground as well, though their attack takes a two-pronged approach. BYU houses a pair of 1,200-yard rushers, QB Taysom Hill and RB Jamaal Williams. Hill plays as if he?s channeling former Kansas State bruiser Collin Klein, looking for someone to hit once he breaks containment. Williams is a big-play threat, averaging almost six yards per carry. For the Cougars to truly click, Hill needs to be a factor as a passer as well. He?s been erratic through the air, which impacts the productivity of Cody Hoffman, a game-breaking receiver when he gets proper help.
Hoffman will be matched up with an underrated Washington secondary that ranks No. 12 nationally in pass efficiency defense. The Huskies are being spearheaded by sophomore CB Marcus Peters and S Sean Parker, both of whom will jump routes if Hill isn?t decisive with his throws. If the depleted Washington staff is comfortable putting the defensive backs in man coverage, it?ll allow the D to commit more troops to stopping the run. If BYU becomes predictable and unbalanced with the ball, as was often the case in 2013, it?ll labor to move the chains on an athletic Husky defense.
Keith Price gives Washington an added dimension on offense that BYU doesn?t have?a reliable, consistent passer. Price bounced back from an awful junior year to throw 20 touchdown passes and only five picks during the regular season. He?s a heady veteran, who can be a de facto coach on the field for the Huskies now that Sarkisian is gone. Price has access to some terrific athletes on the outside, but TE Austin Seferian-Jenkins is his most dangerous target. The Mackey Award winner is 6-6 and 276 pounds, with the soft hands and the athleticism to create matchup nightmares with any collection of linebackers in the country.
The Cougar offense has been brutal when it matters most, ranking 81st nationally on third-down conversions and 113th in red-zone touchdown percentage. Coordinator Robert Anae has taken a lot of the heat, but the players just haven?t executed properly. Obviously, BYU needs to be successful on the ground to have any shot of bucking the regular season trend. If Hill and Williams can crank out chunk yards on first and second downs, it?ll remove a lot of the pressure from a skittish passing attack. On third and at least seven this season, Hill has completed only 19-of-66 passes for no touchdowns and three picks, so these situations must avoided.
Washington will need a big effort out of rising DT Danny Shelton and an ensemble of gifted linebackers, such as John Timu and Shaq Thompson. When U-Dub was pushed back on its heels in run defense during the regular season it rarely survived, getting gashed for more than 200 yards in losses to Oregon, Arizona State and UCLA. The Huskies have to force Hill out of his comfort zone by making his arm become every bit as important as his legs at AT&T Park.
BYU is a tough assignment, a poor-man?s Stanford because of its physicality on both sides of the ball. The Huskies, though, have more options on offense, namely a more complete quarterback and a better back in Sankey. That balance and diversity is what U-Dub will need to move the chains on a very salty and experienced Cougar D. Tuiasosopo will keep his guys energized and loose, offsetting the reality of a hollowed out staff from the one that coached the team in the Apple Cup.
GL
