TRENDS = Events in the past that help predict the future
I have put together similar ?cheat? sheets for myself the last couple of seasons and find it easier to have them all handy rather than flip through the various football mags each week.
I?ve tried to include trends that I find relative (but what is relative?) and have used Phil Steele, StatFox and Marc Lawrence mags for these ?cheat? sheets.
The general trends are more or less at the top of each team?s list and then I?ve tried to list the trends in chronological order for each team?s schedule.
All the stats are against the spread, unless otherwise noted.
CLEMSON
8-15 as fave 10.5 to 21 pts
10-5 as RD <7
2-9-1 as DD RF
9-1 as HD > 7
10-2 off SU dog win
5-9-2 vs Wake
3-8 line home open (Wake)
G tech series dog 14-1
1-7 road after Geo Tech (Tex AM)
Fla St series home 7-1-1
Virginia series dog 12-2; series vis 9-4 SU; 2-10 after Fla St
3-11-1 when fave > 19; 5-13-1 home vs non-conf
9-14 vs. NC St; 5-9 home vs NC St
S Carolina series visitor 18-5; 5-1 home finale
DUKE
1-12 after 3 or more ATS wins
4-10 vs teams with win pct. < 25%
5-12 as HF
12-5 as HD 7.5 to 14 pts
20-10 after loss by > 28 pts
8-3 RD last 2 yr
4-8 in 1st of 2 away (Navy, Wake)
5-12 vs non-conf; 1-8 non-conf host
8-1 dog < 10 pts
11-5 home off 2+ road; 1-5 home opener (Mary)
7-3 vs. Virginia; possible under
7-3 vs. Wake
9-3 after Fla St.;
Clemson series host 6-0
N Carolina series dog 16-6
FLORIDA ST
10-0 off conf loss by < 7 pts
8-2 when line +3 to -3
17-5 after 2 or more ATS loss
1-8 non-conf fave > 14
2-10-1 as dog > 3
5-10-1 before bye (Miami)
Clemson series host 7-1-1
N Carolina host 2-6; 16-6 off BB home
9-3 vs Maryland; series fave 8-1
10-2 final conf home (Duke)
2-5 road finale (NC St)
10-2 final home; 7-1 vs Fla at home
GEORGIA TECH
4-10 as HF < 7 pts
2-16-1 non-conf HF <20
5-12 vs teams that outscore opp by > 17 pts
5-10 vs SEC
15-7 as HD
12-3 non-conf HD
2-12 conf RF 3 to 20 pts
2-10 off SU fave loss
8-2 vs N Carolina; 7-4 before bye
8-3 HD; 1-4 ACC home open (Miami)
possible under vs Mary
9-18-1 vs. Duke
8-16 off bye (Miami, Va Tech)
9-2-1 vs. NC St
9-1 before Virg (Conn)
2-7-1 before Georgia; 3-11 home finale (Virg)
3-10 vs Georgia; 3-9 road finale
MARYLAND
14-6 vs Big East
6-17 as dog 10.5 to 21 pts
15-3 at home
22-6 as fave under Friedgen
6-0 host non-conf
Duke series dog 13-5; 7-13-1 before bye
11-4 host ACC
NC St series dog 15-3-1
Clemson series dog 2-8
3-9 vs Fla St; series host 9-2
11-4 as fave vs Virg; 9-3 at Virg; before bye
9-3 final home; 0-5 vs Wake L5
MIAMI
7-1 off SU dog win
16-7 vs good pass teams (avg > 250 yds)
12-3 as RF 7.5 to 14 pts
13-8 on turf
6-12 as HF (1-10 DD HF)
17-4 as dog > 2 in non Fla games
1-8 non-conf DD HF
1-9 as fave < 24 off SU loss
1-8 home off bye (La Tech, Louis, Va Tech)
21-9 before bye (Fla St, Geo Tech, Wake)
19-12 RF
8-1 home after 2+ road (Louis?, Clem)
8-1 before Va Tech (Wake)
8-4 home finale; 2-7 vs Va Tech
NORTH CAROLINA
9-17 vs good def (allow < 17 ppg)
4-14 at home
22-10 off 2+ ATS loss
3-8 as HD (2-5 DD HD)
9-1 non-conf RD
1-7 vs Virg; series vis 4-14
2-8 vs Geo Tech; 6-17 conf host
4-10 host non-conf
3-9 in 2nd of BB home (Louis ^, Va Tech)
Fla St series vis 6-2; 6-2 RD > 17
8-3 vs NC St
9-4 on turf (Utah); 2-10-1 as fave after NC St
2-8-1 in HC game (Mia Fla); 2-7 after bye
2-8 final home (Va Tech)
Wake series vis 11-2-1; 12-5 in 1st of BB road
6-1 vs Duke
NC STATE
2-23 when score < 14 pts
9-18 as RF
6-13 off BB home (Va Tech, E Car)
7-13 off home loss
15-26 as fave
2-11 as DD HF
7-2 vs Big 10; 7-1 after bye
9-0 as RD
2-5 vs Wake; series host 2-9
3-8 vs N Carolina
Mary series dog 15-3-1; 2-8 after N Carolina
30-16 as HD
2-9-1 vs Geo Tech
7-13 in road finale (E Carolina); 0-7-1 after Fla St
VIRGINIA
11-2 revenging a loss
10-20 vs good def (allow < 17 ppg)
2-23 when score < 14
12-4 off ATS loss
6-14 as RF < 7
24-10 off SU loss
8-1 as HD
12-1-1 off BB ATS losses
11-2 as dog off SU fave loss
9-2 vs N Carolina
1-9 after N Carolina (Akron)
7-3 before bye (Syr, Duke)
Clemson series dog 12-2; 9-19 after bye
3-7 vs Duke
8-16 vs Mary
7-1 in home finale (Miami)
Geo Tech series host 8-1; 7-1 before Va Tech
1-8 in road finale; Va Tech series host 6-2
VIRGINIA TECH
11-2 as RF < 7
5-16 in 2nd half of season
8-21 off home conf win
4-8 as DD fave
17-2 road off non-conf
2-8 in 1st BB home (W Mich, Mary)
28-10 vs non-conf; 9-2 road opener (USC)
possible under vs W Virg
3-7 on road after bye (Geo Tech)
10-3 in 2nd of 2+ road; 3-8 as RF (N Carolina)
14-7 in road finale (Miami)
WAKE FOREST
1-8 off home win
4-15 vs bad def (allow > 31 ppg)
8-3 as RD < 7
6-12 as HF
6-14-2 off SU win
12-1 as DD non-conf dog
8-3-1 as RD; 5-1-1 at Clems
5-9-1 host vs non-conf
NC St series host 10-2
2-7 before bye (Va Tech, Duke)
2-8-1 after bye (Fla St, N Carolina)
N Carolina series host 2-11-1
2-8 before Mary (Miami)
Mary series fave 7-1; 1-8 final road
I have put together similar ?cheat? sheets for myself the last couple of seasons and find it easier to have them all handy rather than flip through the various football mags each week.
I?ve tried to include trends that I find relative (but what is relative?) and have used Phil Steele, StatFox and Marc Lawrence mags for these ?cheat? sheets.
The general trends are more or less at the top of each team?s list and then I?ve tried to list the trends in chronological order for each team?s schedule.
All the stats are against the spread, unless otherwise noted.
CLEMSON
8-15 as fave 10.5 to 21 pts
10-5 as RD <7
2-9-1 as DD RF
9-1 as HD > 7
10-2 off SU dog win
5-9-2 vs Wake
3-8 line home open (Wake)
G tech series dog 14-1
1-7 road after Geo Tech (Tex AM)
Fla St series home 7-1-1
Virginia series dog 12-2; series vis 9-4 SU; 2-10 after Fla St
3-11-1 when fave > 19; 5-13-1 home vs non-conf
9-14 vs. NC St; 5-9 home vs NC St
S Carolina series visitor 18-5; 5-1 home finale
DUKE
1-12 after 3 or more ATS wins
4-10 vs teams with win pct. < 25%
5-12 as HF
12-5 as HD 7.5 to 14 pts
20-10 after loss by > 28 pts
8-3 RD last 2 yr
4-8 in 1st of 2 away (Navy, Wake)
5-12 vs non-conf; 1-8 non-conf host
8-1 dog < 10 pts
11-5 home off 2+ road; 1-5 home opener (Mary)
7-3 vs. Virginia; possible under
7-3 vs. Wake
9-3 after Fla St.;
Clemson series host 6-0
N Carolina series dog 16-6
FLORIDA ST
10-0 off conf loss by < 7 pts
8-2 when line +3 to -3
17-5 after 2 or more ATS loss
1-8 non-conf fave > 14
2-10-1 as dog > 3
5-10-1 before bye (Miami)
Clemson series host 7-1-1
N Carolina host 2-6; 16-6 off BB home
9-3 vs Maryland; series fave 8-1
10-2 final conf home (Duke)
2-5 road finale (NC St)
10-2 final home; 7-1 vs Fla at home
GEORGIA TECH
4-10 as HF < 7 pts
2-16-1 non-conf HF <20
5-12 vs teams that outscore opp by > 17 pts
5-10 vs SEC
15-7 as HD
12-3 non-conf HD
2-12 conf RF 3 to 20 pts
2-10 off SU fave loss
8-2 vs N Carolina; 7-4 before bye
8-3 HD; 1-4 ACC home open (Miami)
possible under vs Mary
9-18-1 vs. Duke
8-16 off bye (Miami, Va Tech)
9-2-1 vs. NC St
9-1 before Virg (Conn)
2-7-1 before Georgia; 3-11 home finale (Virg)
3-10 vs Georgia; 3-9 road finale
MARYLAND
14-6 vs Big East
6-17 as dog 10.5 to 21 pts
15-3 at home
22-6 as fave under Friedgen
6-0 host non-conf
Duke series dog 13-5; 7-13-1 before bye
11-4 host ACC
NC St series dog 15-3-1
Clemson series dog 2-8
3-9 vs Fla St; series host 9-2
11-4 as fave vs Virg; 9-3 at Virg; before bye
9-3 final home; 0-5 vs Wake L5
MIAMI
7-1 off SU dog win
16-7 vs good pass teams (avg > 250 yds)
12-3 as RF 7.5 to 14 pts
13-8 on turf
6-12 as HF (1-10 DD HF)
17-4 as dog > 2 in non Fla games
1-8 non-conf DD HF
1-9 as fave < 24 off SU loss
1-8 home off bye (La Tech, Louis, Va Tech)
21-9 before bye (Fla St, Geo Tech, Wake)
19-12 RF
8-1 home after 2+ road (Louis?, Clem)
8-1 before Va Tech (Wake)
8-4 home finale; 2-7 vs Va Tech
NORTH CAROLINA
9-17 vs good def (allow < 17 ppg)
4-14 at home
22-10 off 2+ ATS loss
3-8 as HD (2-5 DD HD)
9-1 non-conf RD
1-7 vs Virg; series vis 4-14
2-8 vs Geo Tech; 6-17 conf host
4-10 host non-conf
3-9 in 2nd of BB home (Louis ^, Va Tech)
Fla St series vis 6-2; 6-2 RD > 17
8-3 vs NC St
9-4 on turf (Utah); 2-10-1 as fave after NC St
2-8-1 in HC game (Mia Fla); 2-7 after bye
2-8 final home (Va Tech)
Wake series vis 11-2-1; 12-5 in 1st of BB road
6-1 vs Duke
NC STATE
2-23 when score < 14 pts
9-18 as RF
6-13 off BB home (Va Tech, E Car)
7-13 off home loss
15-26 as fave
2-11 as DD HF
7-2 vs Big 10; 7-1 after bye
9-0 as RD
2-5 vs Wake; series host 2-9
3-8 vs N Carolina
Mary series dog 15-3-1; 2-8 after N Carolina
30-16 as HD
2-9-1 vs Geo Tech
7-13 in road finale (E Carolina); 0-7-1 after Fla St
VIRGINIA
11-2 revenging a loss
10-20 vs good def (allow < 17 ppg)
2-23 when score < 14
12-4 off ATS loss
6-14 as RF < 7
24-10 off SU loss
8-1 as HD
12-1-1 off BB ATS losses
11-2 as dog off SU fave loss
9-2 vs N Carolina
1-9 after N Carolina (Akron)
7-3 before bye (Syr, Duke)
Clemson series dog 12-2; 9-19 after bye
3-7 vs Duke
8-16 vs Mary
7-1 in home finale (Miami)
Geo Tech series host 8-1; 7-1 before Va Tech
1-8 in road finale; Va Tech series host 6-2
VIRGINIA TECH
11-2 as RF < 7
5-16 in 2nd half of season
8-21 off home conf win
4-8 as DD fave
17-2 road off non-conf
2-8 in 1st BB home (W Mich, Mary)
28-10 vs non-conf; 9-2 road opener (USC)
possible under vs W Virg
3-7 on road after bye (Geo Tech)
10-3 in 2nd of 2+ road; 3-8 as RF (N Carolina)
14-7 in road finale (Miami)
WAKE FOREST
1-8 off home win
4-15 vs bad def (allow > 31 ppg)
8-3 as RD < 7
6-12 as HF
6-14-2 off SU win
12-1 as DD non-conf dog
8-3-1 as RD; 5-1-1 at Clems
5-9-1 host vs non-conf
NC St series host 10-2
2-7 before bye (Va Tech, Duke)
2-8-1 after bye (Fla St, N Carolina)
N Carolina series host 2-11-1
2-8 before Mary (Miami)
Mary series fave 7-1; 1-8 final road
