Adding One Play

[Nolan Dalla]

All of the following plays below are posted at the daily report (should be up soon), with my reasoning. However, I did accidentally omit one strong play which I would like to post here. See the recommendation at the end of the list


1Q: Minnesota +.5

1H: Minnesota +4

Minnesota +7.5 vs. New England

Minnesota / New England UNDER 46

1H: Buffalo +1.5 (-115)

Buffalo / NY Jets UNDER 46

Detroit / Chicago UNDER 38

Cincinnati / Pittsburgh UNDER 43.5 (BEST BET)

Indianapolis / Denver UNDER 44

ADDED: 1H: Cleveland +3 vs. New Orleans
Comments: This is too many points to give the Browns in the first half, which is a team that comes ready to play every single week. Bettors continue to underestimate the Browns -- who are an impressive 7-3 ATS this season. They've had an extra week to prepare and get ready, which makes the +3 in the 1H all the more inviting, especially versus a team that is without its star RB this week (McAllister out). That essentially neutralizes what advantage th Saints enjoyed (Browns have one of the NFL's worst rushing games). Cleveland has had no problem scoring points this season and should get a few breaks by a defense which gives up well over 20+ per game. Every team has scored 20+ on the Saints this season. New Orleans looked terribly unprepared last week, commiting FIVE motion and dealy penalties in the 1Q alone! That tells me this is a dumb bunch of athletes who can't be trusted to remember snap counts and plays. NOR is a dangerous team when things are rolling, but they seemed to have hit a snag the last two weeks, with an uninspired performance against Carolina, and an ass-kicking at the hands of the Falcons. NOR is not likely to get up for a non-conference foe (this isn't the 49ers or the Rams) which tells me they could put flat again. Browns could pull the upset here, but I think the better play with lot sof value is to bet the Browns in the 1H getting the bonus of the FG. If Saints lead at the half, I don';t think it will be by much since they are now without a running game.

-- Nolan Dalla

 

[FRANK RIZZO]

Nice write up! Thanks fpr the info. Im a big Bucs fan and am looking for the Aints to stub their toes. Maybe this week!

 

[ELVIS]

NOLLAN, TOUGH TO GIVE THE HOME TEAM 8, BUT THE RAIDERS OVER CARDS- ANY THOUGHTS ? THE CARDS LOOKED AWFUL AGAINST EAGLES LAST WEEK, AND REALLY HAVEN'T LOOKED GOOD ALL YEAR.

 

[GM]

I agree with or at least have no opinion on most of these....with one exception. Waiting to see the report when it gets posted because I am really curious why you like the Det/Chi Under. I've got a system that is pointing HUGE to the Over here. Both teams have faced a number of decent to strong defences in a row, but have no defence themselves. Going against each other should mean the offences click, and the total isn't very high at all. I'm looking at a 27-23 type of game here.

Also thinking Detroit can put the boots to them and win outright. Bears have lost 8 in a row...to be laying 5? pts seems crazy, even if these are "just" the Lions.

 

[Nolan Dalla]

NOLLAN, TOUGH TO GIVE THE HOME TEAM 8, BUT THE RAIDERS OVER CARDS- ANY THOUGHTS ? THE CARDS LOOKED AWFUL AGAINST EAGLES LAST WEEK, AND REALLY HAVEN'T LOOKED GOOD ALL YEAR.

As a rule, I NEVER lay many points on the road, especially more than a TD. I don't care what the situation is -- I just won't do it. It doesn't matter that one team is far superior, time and time again we see supposedly great teams stumble into bad situations and sleepwalk through games against soft opponents. I have no idea what will happen in this game, but I sure can't say with much confidence that the Raiders will blow this team out. Remember last year when these two teams met? I recall the Cardinals giving the Raiders all they could handle IN OAKLAND! No play for me on this game.

 

[Nolan Dalla]

I agree with or at least have no opinion on most of these....with one exception. Waiting to see the report when it gets posted because I am really curious why you like the Det/Chi Under. I've got a system that is pointing HUGE to the Over here. Both teams have faced a number of decent to strong defences in a row, but have no defence themselves. Going against each other should mean the offences click, and the total isn't very high at all. I'm looking at a 27-23 type of game here.

Also thinking Detroit can put the boots to them and win outright. Bears have lost 8 in a row...to be laying 5? pts seems crazy, even if these are "just" the Lions.

If you have a "system," I sure would like to hear about it. I have no real hard-core analysis that points to an UNDER other than a few gut instincts that tell me at least one of these offenses will continue to struggle. Of course, I see the point you are making -- that the offenses could come to life because of the step donw in class. But, both offenses seem to be getting WORSE as the season goes along. Detroit is stepping backwards after an enthusiastic start by rookie Harrington, and the Bears offense is beyond hopeless. I agree that it's POSSIBLE we could get a higher scoring game than I predict here, but I also think it's a lot to ask BOTH teams to score in the 20s, when they both seem so inconsistent. It's also very possibel Bears defense could come up big in this game and completely shut the LIons down, in which case the game should go UNDER. There's a trend about two losing teams when they play each other in the second half of the season, the games go more UNDER than OVER. This is because BOTH teams see the opponent as beatable and don't want to do anything that will put the team's chances of winning in jeoprady (more conservative play calling). Against tough opponents, these weak teams know they must take chances and throw the ball, but both coaches here probably figure they can win a low scoring game -- which I think plays into a lot of short passes and runs by the backs. I'd sure like to have 40 at the number, but I'll still go UNDER 38. By no means is this the best play on the board, but it's enough of an edge for me to go with it. Now, I'd be interested in hearing more about your system, if you care to share it. I'm certainly not opposed to getting OFF a game if the argument is compelling.

Nolan Dalla

 

[GM]

Hi Nolan,

Well, it's a spreadsheet program, initially developed by a friend of mine. Very difficult to explain in words. You would have to see it and even then it's not simple, because there are so many numbers and pages and it takes some knowledge to understand how to interpret the data it gives you. This spreadsheet contains 2 pages for every team, plus three summation pages, all parsing data back and forth. That's about as much as I can say about it. Like I said, my friend developed it; I have modified it so it's a bit more automated and takes out the extremes and some of the oddities.

What the system doesn't do is evaluate emotion, situational factors, injuries, overlook situations etc etc. Purely mathematical, so it has it's drawbacks. And I've learned only to trust it when it spits out a very extreme result. Anything that is "kind of leaning towards" a cover or an O/U I have found to not really have any merit. So it gives me maybe 2 plays a week if I'm lucky.

You make some very good situational points with the Under play here. In particular I like your analysis based on both teams wanting to ensure that they grab a win while it is possibly there for them and going more conservative.

This isn't the strongest play I've seen this system produce, but it is strong. Just two teams who have been shut down below normal output offensively I think, so their offences may appear to be stagnant when in actual fact they may have just been overmatched. Detroit in particular has faced (according to this system) 3 of the current top 4 defences in the league in their past 3 games (I know no one else's numbers would agree with that, but that's how this program sees it). Neither D can stop any sort of decent attack. And 38's a low number. Well, it's not perfect, but I am going to go with it this week and see what happens.

{edit} To remove a few sentences that go into more detail than necessary.

 

[johnnyonthespot]

I also have a spreadsheet system (though not nearly as detailed as GMs) that also points to a big play on Chicago/Detroit over.

Yes, the Bear offense is abysmal but it seems that week after week they luck their way into about 20 points. At home this year (well, Champaign) they've only failed to put up 20 points once, and that was against a very tough Philly D. They've also allowed at least 20 points in every home game, again with one exception (the same game, where Philly put up 19).

Nolan, I hear what you're saying about losing teams playing more conservative, but the Bears are more than just a losing team, they've lost 8 IN A ROW. For one thing, I don't see how they could get more conservative than they have been most of the year, but I think they're pretty desperate for a W and will be willing to do anything to get it. I don't think they'll play conservatively at all. Plus the Lions beat them in OT last time after the Bears held the lead all game; I think they'll remember that and try to put them away (as opposed to idiotically trying to run the clock down with a 3 point lead with over 7 minutes left in the 4th quarter).

Of course, as GM mentioned, spreadsheets can only run numbers and don't take into account the intangibles.

GL to you this week!