Adding to my future wagers......

[Scott4USC]

First off, I am a little disappointed in that I am not getting the value I thought I would have when I placed my original wagers on Jan. 31st. Still got value but not as much as I thought. I risked injuries etc. Oh well. Still think I will ca$h at the end or else I am out good chunk of $$$.

Adding more $$$ on UNC and Illinois.

Unfortunately Pinnacle only allows max. $500 but I have $500 to win $2k on UNC and Illinois. After I placed my wager, Illinois went down to +395 so I wagered $500 to win $1975. Pinnacle has not changed UNC line yet so I can't wager $500 more on them. Once they do I will put another $500 on them or wager at BHB at +385. Whichever is better line.

Maybe some madjackers will wager on UNC and bump it down to +395 @ Pinny so I can wager $500 more on it.

I'll post my wagers and reasonings after I put in my UNC bet. Really like UNC and Illinois chances of winning it and I understand its no lock.

BTW, the best futures bet is Syracuse 29-1 odds at Pinny but I don't think I will wager on it. All or nothing on UNC and Illinois + my 4 other teams.

 

[Scott4USC]

This thread is prob. meaningless to almost everyone but maybe someone jumped on board with me when I posted my positions with future wagers. So I am updating them and my additions. Plus it helps me keep track of my #'s.

*Illinois ---> $2,600 to win $13,495
gained value

*North Carolina ---> $3,003 to win $13,159
gained value

*Wake Forest ---> $500 to win $5,000
Lost value

*Kansas ---> $300 to win $4,500
Lost value

*Georgia Tech ---> $200 to win $4,000
Lost value

*Washington ---> $100 to win $4,000
gained value

3 #1 seeds :spotting:
1 #2 seed
1 #3 seed
1 #5 seed

1 team in Chicago Region, 3 teams in Albuquerque Region, 2 teams in Syracuse Region.

Overall I am estatic the way my teams are positioned. Only complaint is Kansas is in Syracuse Region. Wish they were in the Austin Region. Also wished Kentucky was #2 seed in Illinois region and not OSU. I have a decent chance to have 3 of my teams in the final four. I am thankful neither UNC or Illinois plays Syracuse, UCONN, KANSAS, OSU, WF, G-Tech, Arizona, & UW in sweet 16. Should be sweating bullets in elite 8 and final four.

Results if this team wins it all..........

+$9,392 Illinois!!!!
+$9,459 UNC!!!!!
- $1,203 WF!!!!!
- $1,903 Kansas!!!!!
- $2,503 G-Tech!!!!
- $2,603 Washington!!!!

If some other team wins it....
- $6,403 :scared

Lets see how this all shakes out. I'm hoping for the best and I think the odds of one of my teams winning it all are in my favor. Hopefully its UNC or Illinois.

*$300 future wager for UNC +455 was not posted on MJ's and I also did not count $300 in my total losses because I received a $300 cash bonus.

 

[Scott4USC]

Interesting yet meaningless stats that support my wagers or warn me against them!

*In the last 25 years, the #1 seed has won the Tourney 13 times. (52%)
*Since 1990, 10 #1 seeds have won the tourney. (71%)
*Out of 100 final four teams in the last 25 years, 41 of them were #1 seeds. (41%)
*Out of 56 final four teams in the last 14 years, 25 of them were #1 seeds. (44%)

*Since 1985, the #1 seed is 100% (winners) in 1st round, 85% (winners) in 2nd round, 82% in 3rd round, 60% in 4th round, 50% in 5th round, and 64% in the finals. Mathematically, an average #1 seed has a 13% probability of winning it all.

Illinois is #1 RPI
UNC is #7 RPI

I have 5 of the top 7 teams in the RPI for my future wagers.

Sagaran had UCONN #2 last year, Syracuse #5 2- years ago, Maryland #3 3-years ago, Duke #2 4-years ago, Michigan St. #1 4-years ago, UCONN #2 5-years ago. In the last 6 years, the National Champion has been ranked in the toip 5 of Sagarin rankings.

This years top 5 Sagarin Rankings are,,,,,

1 Illinois 95.09
2 North Carolina 95.06
3 Duke 93.08
4 Wake Forest 92.20
5 Washington 91.77

For all my future teams, I have 4/5 Sagarin top 5. My 2 main teams are ranked #1 and #2.

In Sagarin's PURE POINTS (PREDICTOR) he has UNC #1 and Illinois #3.

As for the ESPN "experts," I was surprised to see most of them having Illinois or UNC winning it all. So if these guys really are "experts," then I am confident.

 

[wareagle]

Looks pretty soliod scotty.

we have lots of similar teams and a few different. Got these about a month ago...some have gained value and some have lost value:

wake 7-1

ga tech 20-1

duke 10-1

cuse 16-1

cinncy 100-1

ok st 12-1

UNC 5-1

any thoughts?

 

[Scott4USC]

wareagle

As I said in the 1st post, I was disappointed in how I either lost value or didn't gain that much value in placing my bets early. I mean, I risked injuries etc. Really pissed I didn't wait another 2 weeks on my G-Tech bet, coulda got 40-1 odds. :cursin:

I though both UNC and Illinois would be +200 right now. Since they both are +400 I added 1k to each of them and now I will take a loss on my other 4 teams in the tourney. Risk I think is worth taking.

You lost value on all your wagers except UNC. But every team you took can win it all except for Cincy. When you place futures during the season, you would think to get better value. Not this year.

In terms of probabilities this is how I rank the teams in order of winning it all.

Illinois 20%
UNC 20%
WF 10%
Syracuse 7%
Duke 7%
Oklahoma St 5%.
Washington 3%
Arizona 3%
G-Tech 3%
UCONN 3%
Kansas 3%

Field 15%

Those 11 teams I think realistically can win it all for various reasons. Out of 11 teams I have 6 and you have 6 of them. Gotta like our chances except you don't have the heavyweight in Illinois. I don't think there will be a lot of upsets in this tourney.

 

[Sun Tzu]

You added to a bet on UNC at about 4+-1 when you yourself only give them a 1 in 5 chance of winning?

 

[Scott4USC]

You added to a bet on UNC at about 4+-1 when you yourself only give them a 1 in 5 chance of winning?

:mj07:

YES!!!!!!!!!!!

Mathematically the probability is UNC or Illinois have a 13% chance of winning it. So if I really think they have a 30% chance of winning it, I have to give statistics some weight and respect. 30%-13% = 17% and I rounded it up to 20%. Its just a guess and prediction.

The key thing is I have 2 teams that will net me 9k profit. I have both teams with a 20% probability of going all the way. I have 4 teams that will cut my losses by 4-5 times. Most I can lose is around 6k. Its gambling! I have won a lot of $$$ last 3 years so 6k won't kill me. Plus I got $750 wager at +250 on USC winning the NC. That is gold!!! :mj07: I also have $500 on Yankees winning it all at +250!!! Anyways, who says I am gonna lose!!! All those damn ESPN analysts have UNC or Illinois winning it. :mj07:

 

[Sun Tzu]

I dont think any of your teams are going to win but only time will tell. I wish you well of course, I just dont see those teams winning. USC has done well for you obviously, but to play that much on NCAA hoops futures to me is foolish. Unlike football, the best team doesnt win even close to all of the time, and you dont know in advance who they will even play. Gl.

 

[vyrus858]

I say Oklahoma St. is going to suprise alot of people, i would say put some coin on them, but im not your daddy

 

[contender]

ILLINOIS WILL WALK THRU THIS TOURNY LIKE THEY ARE PLAYING HIGH SCHOOL BOYS :mj07:

 

[nchiappetta]

I played some futures early on but my site actually does not have them posted any longer since the brackets came out...luckily I got them early.

If Team X Wins/ Risk / to Win Profit/Loss

Kentucky/ 30/ 390/ -40

Wake Forest/ 50/ 400/ -10

Washington/ 10/ 350/ -110

North Carolina/ 50/ 150/ -260

Villanova/ 35/ 5250 / 4825

Duke/ 20/ 240/ -200

Illinois/ 75/ 225/ -60

Boston College/ 50/ 1500 / 1090

Michigan St./ 15/ 525/ 80

Utah/ (wasted $5!!) 5/ 250/ -105

Uconn/ 50/ 1750 / 1340

Alabama/ 50/ 2000 / 1590

Oklahoma/ 20/ 1700/ 1260

Basically I am rooting for Nova, Oklahoma, the Huskies, BC, or Bama. All are longshots somewhat but those are the teams that provided some value and have a legitimate shot at making a run.

 

[vyrus858]

Contender please post ALL your plays for the whole dance, we will all appreciate it, you have GREAT reasoning and insite...we would love to tail all your plays

 

[gjn23]

future wagers are typically a joke, especially in college basketball where the best regular season teams doesn't even make it to the final four half the time (stanford-kentucky last year, arizona-kentucky two years ago, duke in 02, etc...)

you have 6 futures and will only win money on two of them???? both favorites (ill and unc).....to me that's a losing proposition and you might make more rolling that $2600 on ILL 6 straight times as they will likely be -150 or less in three of the 6 games.

personally i dont see ill winning the whole thing and can see them losing to bama, ok state or arizona before even getting to the final four

college hoops is much different than college football where a future wager does offer value. id say i wish you luck but you dont have arizona as one of you're wagers

 

[Scott4USC]

Did you not read my 3rd post in this thread?

Sagarin had.....
UCONN #2 last year,
Syracuse #5 2- years ago,
Maryland #3 3-years ago,
Duke #2 4-years ago,
Michigan St. #1 5-years ago,
UCONN #2 6-years ago.

In the last 6 years, the National Champion has been ranked in the toip 5 of Sagarins rankings.

This years top 5 Sagarin Rankings are,,,,,

1 Illinois 95.09
2 North Carolina 95.06
3 Duke 93.08
4 Wake Forest 92.20
5 Washington 91.77

For all my future teams, I have 4/5 Sagarin top 5. My 2 main teams are ranked #1 and #2. Gotta like my chances.

This is a 6 year trend going strong. It makes sense. If NCAA tourney is about deciding the true champion, usually one of the top 5 ranked teams will win it. Past 6 years, Sagarin has had the NC tea, ranked in his top 5 power rankings.

I appreciate you pointing out and warning me about the difference between NC CFB and NC of NCAA HOOPS. I know its more risky. However, I took 6 teams to spread out my risk. I also have my 2 huge money makers with UNC and Illinois in oppositte sides of bracket. If either one gets upset, I still have the other team to root for to cash big. I even pointed out mathematically that #1 seeds have a 13% of winning it all so statistics is against me.

gjn23

It was between Arizona and Washington when I placed the bet, and I saw UW at 40-1 and Arizona 25-1 so I felt both teams were just as good so went with big odds. Paid off. Never thought UW would become #1 seed.

Sun Tzu

How can you honestly say you don't see any of my 6 teams winning it? Makes no sense to me. I do not understand this. Couple weeks ago you said your top 3 teams to win it all were OSU, WF, and UW. 2/3 are in my 6, and now you changed your tune of not seeing ANY of my 6 teams winning it? I think any team that reaches the elite 8 has decent chance of winning it all. All 6 of my teams have decent chance of reaching the elite 8. Hard to argue against that.

You prob. are right that I am foolish to wager so much on these futures especially in a 1 and done tourney. However, I think UNC or Illinois have chance to beat MOST teams in this tourney when they are just having an average day. MOST teams need an EXCELLENT day to have a chance to beat UNC or Illinois. If either UNC or Illinois gets hot, its over. If either gets lucky, its over. Then I also got the other 4 teams to help cut my losses.

I am banking on Brown from Illinois to get out of his shooting slump (please) and UNC to play with more intensity and McCants to get back to his old form.

One thing going for me is I am not alone thinking UNC or Illinois will win it all. Hell, just get to the final four and I can hedge/middle if I want too.

 

[Scott4USC]

Things are playing to form with Sagarin ratings. Only 1 of his top 5 are out of the tourney (WF) and one of his top 5 ranked teams has won the tourney the last 6 years. Strong trend. Duke is the team I must worry about according to the computer geek.

As for my futures, WF and Kansas took an early exit. :cursin: Did not expect that to happen when I put these futures in on Jan. 31st. Those 2 were my 3rd and 4th teams I was cheering for.

*****

Decided to add to my Illinois and UNC bet. UNC REALLY impressed me in their 1st round game. Despite playing overmatched opponent, UNC came to play and played with passion. Something they lacked in the ACC Tourney. I been saying UNC will be a different team in the tourney. Now I don't get the privilege to see how UNC does today but I don't want to lose the little value I already get on UNC. So I am taking risk that UNC comes out and plays well today. As of right now, UNC is my clear cut favorite to win it all but ILL. is close behind. Illinois impressed me their first 2 rounds. SOLID defense in their first 2 games and great play from their big men. If the outside trio gets hot, they will hands down win it all. Both UNC and Illinois don't rely heavily on any player to carry the team. Plenty of other players to carry the slack. However, both will need great play to beat teams in the elite 8, final 4 and NC game. I expect both teams to take their game to another level when those rounds approach.

I also have G-Tech and Washington in a region of their own. So good probability one of those 2 teams reach the final four. I will now lose roughly 3k if either of those 2 teams win it all. Much better than losing 7k.

UNC +280
$500 to win $1400
Illinois +280
$500 to win $1400

Illinois now has to beat UWM, then prob. OSU/Arizona to reach final four. I like Illinois in both matchups. Then in final four Illinois doesn't face WF and I think they could handle Washington, G-Tech, or UL.

UNC must beat ISU today, then winner of Villanova/FL (neither those teams impressed me in round 1), then prob. UCONN. UCONN doesn't play a full 40min. of hoops and has inexperience on the perimeter. UNC should be able to handle them even if the UCONN bigs are playing well. In final four Duke worries me a lot because of the rivalry but Duke lost to UNC without McCants. McCants has recovered nicely and is playing good ball right now. BTW it ain't no LOCK Duke makes final four. I love UNC over UK, MSU, or Miss St. Duke also will be a tired team if they reach final four.

All in all, I didn't get a lot of value and prob. should have just kept the way things were, but I couldn't resist "trying" to pick up another $900 if either UNC or Illinois wins it all. I think there is good probability both make it to the final four. If so, then I got $1000 wager to win $900 on 2 teams in the final four to win it all.

Updated results if this team wins it all..........

+$10,292 Illinois!!!!
+$10,359 UNC!!!!!
- $3,503 G-Tech!!!!
- $3,603 Washington!!!!

If some other team wins it....
- $7,403 :scared

 

[Scott4USC]

I just added another $500 wager on UNC winning it all. ($500 to win $1200)

At first they had tough bracket but now things are shaping up nicely.

UNC vs Villanova
UNC vs Wiscy/NC St.
UNC vs Duke/MSU/UTAH/Kentucky
Then NC game against "hopefully" Illinois or UW

These potential opponents are not world beaters. They all would need to play a flawless game to beat UNC (and that might not be good enough). Look back at the ACC Tourney. UNC was not playing with a passion and McCants was just getting back healthy. G-Tech had Bynum go for 35pts and they barely beat UNC with UNC playing an off game and not playing with passion.

IMO UNC is playing the best basketball right now. They are playing the way I thought they were going to. I can't see any team who would be favored to beat UNC.

Duke poses the biggest threat to UNC and they might not even make the final four. Miss. St. should have won last night and I think there is decent chance Duke doesn't make final four. The blueprint is out on how to beat Duke and their players may run out of gas.

An advantage UNC has over most if not all teams is they are fresh. They rotate players and their starters average less min. than anybody else in the tourney. This will play big factor if UNC is fortunate enough to make final four and NC game.

I really like the position I am in right now with futures so I decided to throw another $500 on UNC. I got Illinois on opposite side of bracket and Washington in their own bracket opposite UNC. If UW beats UL (tough game) then we should pencil them in final four. UW would cut my losses in half if they win it all. Illinois "could" be upset by OSU/Arizona and UW/UL but would be the fav. to win both games. And I really like the way Illinois is playing right now although I won't add any more $$ to them because the guard trio is not currently shooting lights out.

I think I have decent chance of having an Illinois vs UNC NC. Which I (and prob. most of the country) have been hoping for all along. I was fortunate to have NC St. upset UCONN. UCONN easily could have beaten UNC if their inexperienced guards got hot to compliment their big men.

UNC and Illinois are heavy fav. in sweet 16. If both win, then statistically I have a 25% chance of one of them winning it all. Thats a 25% of winning $9,792 or $11,559. I wonder if any madjackers jumped on board with any of my posted futures bets. They actually have not worked real well with WF, GT, KU all being knocked out. I was planning on having at least 4 of my futures teams in the elite 8. :cursin: At least UNC and Illinois are still in it. That is what counts.

Updated results if either of my teams win it all..........

+$11,559 UNC!!!!!
+$9,792 Illinois!!!!
- $4,103 Washington!!!!

If some other team wins it....
- $7,903 :scared

Hopefully I am not pissing my money down the drain by getting carried away with future bets. I currently have an 18% chance of one of my 3 teams winning it all and all 3 are #1 seeds. Here is to no upsets the rest of the tourney (except for Duke). :toast:

At the very least I have bought myself a very entertaining March Madness! :mj07:

 

[pt1gard]

Scott, NC has always been my fave team and I have them 10/1 to win it all etc, but Nova, NC st/Wisky or Duke could all easily beat them ... Tar Heels havent played a remotely decent team in first 2 rounds so dont go overboard evaluating their greatness yet ... their last 3 games prior to that they coulda lost all 3 when they did play good teams... If you can gum up their fastbreak, which isnt the hardest thing to do in basketball, NC can struggle.

gl to us
gregg

ps posted Nova's fwd stud out, elsewhere, NC catches huge break there--too bad for Sumpter tho

 

[Trampled Underfoot]

What no future bet on USC? :mj07:

 

[Scott4USC]

pt1gard

Hey Gregg thanks for reply and I agree UNC hasn't beaten a great team yet in the tourney. Although I think Iowa St. is decent and UNC destroyed them. So you are right they could be upset or nobody knows for sure how they will play against better competition. Like you said, UNC did catch break with Nova and their elite 8 opponent won't be world beaters either. In case of the mighty UNC upset, I still have Illinois working for me and I really like their chances as well. If Illinois and UNC get upset :scared , I still have UW working for me and they would cut my losses in half. Hopefully it all plays out for the best and UNC wins us both ca$h! Wish I got your 10-1.

As of right now, who do you see playing in the NC game and who is the winner?

What no future bet on USC? :mj07:

Nope, already have my USC bet in. $750 to win $1,875. Wish I could put more on it but the sportsbook wouldn't allow me.

 

[pt1gard]

hey scott:

gun to my head i would say Illini and NC--but an x-GF asked me who I liked in tourney when it began (and I have done well pickiong winners thru the years: terps, Uconn, Mich st, b4 it started) but I told her, honestly, I can not pick one this year--most even field Ive ever seen ... almost any team left, if they get to final 4, would not shock me ... and from there I would say almost any 12 could win ...

I aslo have Illini 14/1 but I am not confident either NC or illni will even make it to final, let alone win it ...

gl, gregg