There's lots of great material here on the games, and I certainly have picked up some good information about some of the teams. Here are my thoughts for Thursday, with some suggestions:
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2003 NCAA BASKETBALL HANDICAPPING RECORD
ALL RESULTS COMBINED ??? 31 -- 21 -- 2
WIN PERCENTAGE??????.. 59 percent
SIDES????????????. 31 -- 21 -- 2
TOTALS???????????. 0 -- 0 -- 0
SECOND-HALF BETS?????. 0 -- 0 -- 0
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W. KENTUCKY +9.5 vs. ILLINOIS
Looks like a game that could be closer than the line indicates. I've seen Illinois run cold at times and if they hit one of those stretches in this game, they won't cover.
1H: W. KENTUCKY +5.5 vs. ILLINOIS
I'm going with the philosophy that emotion wins in the short run, but talent wins in the long run. Hoping WKY can neutralize ILL in the first half of the game.
MISSOURI -4 vs. SO. ILLINOIS
This line should be higher. Missouri plays a brutal schedule combined with the fact So. Ill. Is just 10-16 ATS this season tells me linesmakers are off by a couple of points on this one.
HOLY CROSS +11 vs. MARQUETTE
Great spot for Holy Cross which has tournament experience. Who can forget they were LEADING at halftime last year in the first round game against Kansas as 30-point dogs. Holy Cross ended up losing that game by 12, but I believe it has some ramifications here. This group played in the big dance before, and showed they can stand the heat. I like that in a team.
1H: HOLY CROSS +6 vs. MARQUETTE
Big favs (defined at +5 or more in the 1H) were only 6-8 ATS in last year's tournament). Adrenaline rush keeps this close in the first half.
ARIZONA STATE +3.5 vs. MEMPHIS
Strictly a feel that this game should be closer to pick.
KANSAS -16 vs. UTAH STATE
I can't stand Kansas, but you get the feeling Jayhawks might get sick of all the criticism and use this opener as a confidence-builder. It's unheard of for me to lay this many points EVER in a college basketball game -- and I hate what I've seen from Kansas in several road games this season -- but Jayhawks are likely to come out with lots of intensity after supposedly being shafted as a non-top seed (Kansas didn't deserve it anyway). Utah State is a very unimpressive 3-7 last 10 games ATS. A 20-point win would be no surprise, especially considering talk that Kansas could have been a top seed in which case they would be laying -20 or more points. Great line value here at -16 with a mad team, undervalued by the public, playing a team that routinely competes against teams like Cal-Poly and Pacific in high school gymnasiums. Recall that after the OU humiliation (Kansas looked awful in that game) the Jayhawks routed Texas A&M by 40 points. That shows this team is capable of putting on the afterburners when it feels it has been wronged.
CINCINNATI -1 vs. GONZAGA
Zags are everyone's darling, but I'm not impressed. Bearcats are the better team despite some rough stretches this season. Unlike previous years as a top seed, no pressure on them this time. Nice bargain laying just a point.
C. MICHIGAN +4 vs. CREIGHTON
I'm with Magjacker "Hellah" on this one. Central Michagan has made me some money and seems to always show up. Tough to fade Creighton, but I like the points here.
DUKE -14 vs. CSU
Devils are peaking at just the right time. I watched CSU's win over mediocre UNLV very closely a few nights ago -- not much of an inside game. Duke is on a roll and is simply too well coached not to be prepared for this game. Another rare play for me on a big favorite.
BYU +4.5 vs. CONNECTICUT
Call me crazy. But I think the Mormon controversy plays to BYUs favor, and the public is now against them (read some of the criticism about BYU "screwing up" brackets and so forth). Should be a close game where the points make a difference.
SAN DIEGO +7 vs. STANFORD
I like games like this, where you have athletes on one side (the dog) who look to the in-state rival as a team that rejected them (you can be sure that everyone that now plays for San Diego put in an application at Stanford, UCLA, etc.). We saw this phenomenon a few years ago when George Mason faced U-MD in the first round. Both Washington DC area schools, where Patriots were a 17 point dog to Terps. George Mason nearly won the game outright. I realize this is anecdotal -- but give me the in-state dog plus lots of points, on a neutral court anytime.
WISCONSIN -7 vs. WEBER STATE
Lots of bettors will be on Weber State here. I'm going contrarian. There's not a single team on Weber State's schedule that looks like it could compete in the Big Ten. Wisconsin had a winning road record this season (playing at tough places like Michigan State, Ohio State, Indiana, etc.) -- the sign of a team that plays well under pressure. Badgers should win an ugly low scoring game and cover.
OKLAHOMA / SO. CAROLINA STATE UNDER 133.5
I think OU is the best bet (value wise) to win the tournament. They consistently face good teams and play outstanding defense. Look for OU to take a commanding lead in the first half, and completely shut down the first sacrificial lamb they face in the second half. I doubt if SCS reaches 50 points in this game, which means I'll fade the prospect of OU reaching 80+ -- based on the line.
**************************************************
2003 NCAA BASKETBALL HANDICAPPING RECORD
ALL RESULTS COMBINED ??? 31 -- 21 -- 2
WIN PERCENTAGE??????.. 59 percent
SIDES????????????. 31 -- 21 -- 2
TOTALS???????????. 0 -- 0 -- 0
SECOND-HALF BETS?????. 0 -- 0 -- 0
**************************************************
W. KENTUCKY +9.5 vs. ILLINOIS
Looks like a game that could be closer than the line indicates. I've seen Illinois run cold at times and if they hit one of those stretches in this game, they won't cover.
1H: W. KENTUCKY +5.5 vs. ILLINOIS
I'm going with the philosophy that emotion wins in the short run, but talent wins in the long run. Hoping WKY can neutralize ILL in the first half of the game.
MISSOURI -4 vs. SO. ILLINOIS
This line should be higher. Missouri plays a brutal schedule combined with the fact So. Ill. Is just 10-16 ATS this season tells me linesmakers are off by a couple of points on this one.
HOLY CROSS +11 vs. MARQUETTE
Great spot for Holy Cross which has tournament experience. Who can forget they were LEADING at halftime last year in the first round game against Kansas as 30-point dogs. Holy Cross ended up losing that game by 12, but I believe it has some ramifications here. This group played in the big dance before, and showed they can stand the heat. I like that in a team.
1H: HOLY CROSS +6 vs. MARQUETTE
Big favs (defined at +5 or more in the 1H) were only 6-8 ATS in last year's tournament). Adrenaline rush keeps this close in the first half.
ARIZONA STATE +3.5 vs. MEMPHIS
Strictly a feel that this game should be closer to pick.
KANSAS -16 vs. UTAH STATE
I can't stand Kansas, but you get the feeling Jayhawks might get sick of all the criticism and use this opener as a confidence-builder. It's unheard of for me to lay this many points EVER in a college basketball game -- and I hate what I've seen from Kansas in several road games this season -- but Jayhawks are likely to come out with lots of intensity after supposedly being shafted as a non-top seed (Kansas didn't deserve it anyway). Utah State is a very unimpressive 3-7 last 10 games ATS. A 20-point win would be no surprise, especially considering talk that Kansas could have been a top seed in which case they would be laying -20 or more points. Great line value here at -16 with a mad team, undervalued by the public, playing a team that routinely competes against teams like Cal-Poly and Pacific in high school gymnasiums. Recall that after the OU humiliation (Kansas looked awful in that game) the Jayhawks routed Texas A&M by 40 points. That shows this team is capable of putting on the afterburners when it feels it has been wronged.
CINCINNATI -1 vs. GONZAGA
Zags are everyone's darling, but I'm not impressed. Bearcats are the better team despite some rough stretches this season. Unlike previous years as a top seed, no pressure on them this time. Nice bargain laying just a point.
C. MICHIGAN +4 vs. CREIGHTON
I'm with Magjacker "Hellah" on this one. Central Michagan has made me some money and seems to always show up. Tough to fade Creighton, but I like the points here.
DUKE -14 vs. CSU
Devils are peaking at just the right time. I watched CSU's win over mediocre UNLV very closely a few nights ago -- not much of an inside game. Duke is on a roll and is simply too well coached not to be prepared for this game. Another rare play for me on a big favorite.
BYU +4.5 vs. CONNECTICUT
Call me crazy. But I think the Mormon controversy plays to BYUs favor, and the public is now against them (read some of the criticism about BYU "screwing up" brackets and so forth). Should be a close game where the points make a difference.
SAN DIEGO +7 vs. STANFORD
I like games like this, where you have athletes on one side (the dog) who look to the in-state rival as a team that rejected them (you can be sure that everyone that now plays for San Diego put in an application at Stanford, UCLA, etc.). We saw this phenomenon a few years ago when George Mason faced U-MD in the first round. Both Washington DC area schools, where Patriots were a 17 point dog to Terps. George Mason nearly won the game outright. I realize this is anecdotal -- but give me the in-state dog plus lots of points, on a neutral court anytime.
WISCONSIN -7 vs. WEBER STATE
Lots of bettors will be on Weber State here. I'm going contrarian. There's not a single team on Weber State's schedule that looks like it could compete in the Big Ten. Wisconsin had a winning road record this season (playing at tough places like Michigan State, Ohio State, Indiana, etc.) -- the sign of a team that plays well under pressure. Badgers should win an ugly low scoring game and cover.
OKLAHOMA / SO. CAROLINA STATE UNDER 133.5
I think OU is the best bet (value wise) to win the tournament. They consistently face good teams and play outstanding defense. Look for OU to take a commanding lead in the first half, and completely shut down the first sacrificial lamb they face in the second half. I doubt if SCS reaches 50 points in this game, which means I'll fade the prospect of OU reaching 80+ -- based on the line.
