Advice appreciated for St Bonny/Duquesne

[Nickelback]

I have a four team parlay riding with St Bonny ML the only part still pending. . . it pays 4 to 1 and I have a single unit on this parlay.

Sooooo, I was thinking about possible hedge plays (and I won't be here at halftime to do anything so it must be for the game) and here is what I came up with:

1. I could take the 11 points and go for a middle. Only concern is that the Bonnies led by 20 at the half over this team earlier this year only to let the game go into overtime somehow. . . the Bonnies should be a little more focused for the 2nd game.

2. I could play a unit on the Duquesne ML and be sure to come out a couple units ahead no matter what happens.

3. I could let it ride given the fact that I'm up 5+ units already today and it would take a lot for the Bonnies to fall to this team.

I'm really looking at options 1 or 3. . . does anybody think that Duquesne can stay within this number?!?! All thoughts appreciated and I'll be around to post plays for other games, but am considering my options on this parlay first.

 

[loophole]

dukes on the ml sounds mighty good to me.

 

[johnnyonthespot]

Tough call . . .but a good one

Tough call . . .but a good one

Well, since I do this exclusively for fun and don't really expect to make money on it, I'd probably just let it ride; the odds are definitely in your favor.

However, if you're going to hedge I'd put 2 units on Duquesne +11. 11 points is a big middle and we've already seen a number of conference tourney games ending up tighter than what would be expected. Anyways, worst case scenario here is that Duquesne pulls the shocker and you only end up up 1 unit, but you've got a pretty decent shot at being up 6 units.

Whenever I hedge, I can't decide if I'm being greedy or cautious . . .

Just my 2 cents

 

[Nickelback]

Probably gonna let the ML parlay ride. . . think the Bonnies win this game easy and am not interested in playing a bet that I think is poor (even if it is to hedge a parlay) by taking the 11 points.

Adding two other games for a unit each:

St Johns laying 4

South Florida ML

 

[Kidd's Korner]

Though I understand your position on wanting to come out ahead one way or another with this being your last game in the parlay, I have to ask you one question:

Did you take St Bonny's in the first place thinking they may lose?

If you answered no, then this is why it is called gambling. Let it ride. You made the 1 unit bet to win 4 units. 75% of your wager has come in. Why reduce your possible winnings to cover the possibility they may lose? You stated you are up 5 units today. Nothing wrong with that. You are looking at being up 4 units or 9 units at the end of the day. In my book, 400 to 900 a night to the good means I retire a lot sooner than expected.

Good Luck and go Bonny's (though I do have Duquesne +11...I hope Bonny's wins by 10)

 

[Nickelback]

Good point Kidd. . . I thought of that as well. . . I did take the Bonnies on the ML because I thought it was a very solid play.

 

[monkey]

monkey

monkey

play the duke straight up for what ever you put on the parlay

the worst that could happen you lose nothing.

 

[Mr.Mom]

If you have the mojo go for broke

If you have the mojo go for broke

Take the pounts ie your best option!

 

[Loser]

Take it. If they're handing it to you take it. Hedge! Freebees is hard to come by. Let it ride and you lose, you lose your lead. Up 7 units is better than up 4 units (5 units - 1 unit parlay). Plus you win your 1 unit comes back.

 

[dr. freeze]

don't hedge.......no sense in laying extra juice......only reason to hedge is if you think there is value now in Duq. ML.......Duq. sucks though and St. Bon should roll tonight.....

 

[Nickelback]

Amazing day. . . hopefully it rolls over tomorrow!

 

[dr. freeze]

good job.......keep it up!!!