Advice on Betting Week 13 Favorite

[yak merchant]

Okay,

Here's the deal, I'm highly allergic to chalk. I bet underdogs, and favorites under 7. I gave up big chalk many years ago and haven't had a losing year in college football since. So this week a game comes down the pike, that is a small double digit favorite, that I really REALLY like. Now I know I should bet it straight for a normal amount and leave it at that. I'm really tempted to hammer this thing, but my mind is playing tricks on me. I'm having flash backs to back door screw jobs of the past and don't want to ruin a good season on one stupid play. so then I start thinking I should wheel this play in a teaser. Then I think, teasers are for squares, if I going to wheel it I should wheel it in parlays with all my other plays. I hate teasers, and maybe I'm a retard, but getting this thing under a touchdown is very tempting to me. Any thoughts?

 

[77sticks]

How about you tell us the game so we can give you an opinion on it?

 

[tulah]

SO what team do you like ?

You made this so mysterious.

 

[yak merchant]

I will shortly, but I actually want an opinion on the situation. I will say it's a home favorite between 10.5 and 12.

 

[77sticks]

If I read your post correctly even though I do not know the team..

It makes no sense to blow your season winnings on one game. If you do love the play that much, up your normal wager but not all of your winnings. I am not sure how much you are up but if you are up say $1000 and you normally bet 100 on games...bet 300 if you are that confident.

With that being said..what is the game. Troy?

 

[yak merchant]

Yeah, Troy. I hate favorites, and especially ones that the public are all over, I already bought in straight and a few 6 pointers, but if the line doesn't move I may get out of some of it. I would guess this hit's 13 by kickoff though. The numbers I have for this game are pretty one sided. Middle Tenn is +13 in turnovers or something for the last 4 games so if they do that again I lose, but I"ll take my chances.

 

[yak merchant]

Okay I'm freaking out, 70% of public on Troy, touts are all pounding Troy. Only people I see on MTSU are angle players. I was about to start bailing out of this thing, until I saw Pinnacle make a pretty strong stand to get MTSU money with +13, but without American money, what does that mean these days?

 

[Cash Man]

Get out Now!!!!!:scared :com:

 

[yak merchant]

Get out Now!!!!!:scared :com:

Any reason why, or are you just trying to add to my bi-polar stripper on cocaine like mental state.

 

[Cash Man]

I just got it @ Midd Tenn +10

 

[yak merchant]

Umm you need a new out if you just took + 10

 

[tulah]

MTSU Def. has been horrible over the last 2 games. they've give up over 500 + yards
to UL monroe & UL lafayette.
Troy loves the spotlight. This game looks like a
44-20 type of game .

I got Troy -12

GL with your play

 

[WhiteFish]

If I didnt pound the patriots each week because the public is on them I'd have a lot less cash to play with. :shrug:

 

[yak merchant]

Well I actually was less worried about the fact that the public was on it, and more worried that the line was staying still and not moving with the public. Line moves against public percentages are not where you want to be. As it just hit 14 at pinny I'm going to keep the whole thing. I'll be a nervous wreck, but the way I figure is, if I lose I need to stay home and redo my system anyway.

 

[bassmaster007]

good luck yak!!!! lol always wanted to call somebody yak, thanks man....
ps im on troy also

 

[yak merchant]

Holy crap, I wonder if the Troy receivers can eat with those hands?

 

[yak merchant]

I will never understand offensive coordinators that are too fancy too run the ball.

 

[tulah]

Nice hit bro.
I really didn't think it would be that easy.

 

[yak merchant]

Yeah, numbers were solid, but if I thought it was going to be that easy, I sure wouldn't be sweating the back end of a bunch of teasers this Saturday.