sunday 3-1 +490
ytd 61-38-2 +2440
I had posted PHI -4.5 in Ray's early thread last sunday. Now that the line is at 6 I am buying it back. Still think Philly wins but worried about a FG game. Plus a 5 or 6 pt win and I still get something. But the main reason is I live in Atlanta and have already made $100 worth of bets with Atlanta fans so just need Philly to win now. Might have a few more as there are many confident ATL fans here and they have the right to be. So even if Philly wins by 5 and I get the scalp I will not count the win. Just wanted to clarify since I did post Philly last sunday. As for the real superbowl, I mean AFC championship:
PIT +3 (-105) 105/100
If I did not have my future on the steelers this would be at least a $300 play. I know it may be suicide to put more on them when I already have much riding on them but even if they do win there is a chance (anything can happen but i think they kill whoever wins in the NFC) they could get upset in the superbowl and then I would have lost my future and not had the chance to make any $ if they beat NE. PLus I have almost always hedged future bets and usually end up almost evening out and wondering why I didn't stick to my guns. Again I know most might not agree but knowing I would have to hedge w/ NE at -155 (no way i would take them at -3 and lose both bets when they win by 2) makes a hedge even less appealing. Plus w/ PIT at +3 tiny chance of a cover if they do lose. Now for my reasoning if anyone made it this far..
Not much left to say but I really feel this is a game where a great case can be made for either team. However the trend on home dogs is nice but I really didn't factor that in. I am just a sucker for teams that have a top running game, a top defense, and are at home. After watching Big Ben last week if this game were in NE I wouldnt take Pitt + anything. Yes he looked bad last week and that was at home but just feel many are assuming he will look horrible today. He might but I expect the squeelers to dance w/ who brung them and that was a top defense and a punishing running game. Offense held the jets to 3 last week and feel the return of Dillon is not as big as most. Would he have helped them gain more then 5 yds rushing in the game on halloween? yes. But nobody runs well on Pitt and Dillon in his career hasn't done much vs them. Neither has Bettis but I actually believe Bettis might be the 3rd best running back on his team as Vernon Hayes is a very underrated back. Loss of Seymour (even if he plays I question how effective he'll be) and Law will hurt NE today even it didnt last week. Bellicheck can come up with a scheme that will mesmerize most teams but its hard to scheme against a team that relys on smash mouth football. Sure Belicheck is a better coach then Cower but I don't think it is as big as most. Cower's record in the championship game is well documented. But this is still a very good coach who gets the most out of his players. Just don't see this as Bellichec vs Martz or anything like that. Maybe the intensity wasn't there or whatever but pride should have set in when Pittsburgh was gashing NE that game to the tune of over 200 yds and they just couldn't stop them. Pats have the obvious QB and coach advantages but don't see many else. I know, the way these guys play talent isnt as important but still feel that coupled w/ the loss of a few of there top guys (Law has been out a while but this is the most talented team they have played since his injury) and feel the home dog looks good here. Close win over the jets and NE trouncing the Colts has made PIT a home dog and I will happily take the pts. I have not bet against NE this yr and have sided w/ them at least 4-5 times maybe more so I know it is stupid to try to build a bankroll betting against them. But I have to go w/ my capping and who I really think covers and that is PIT.
gl to all today, hope to be around for some halftime plays.
ytd 61-38-2 +2440
I had posted PHI -4.5 in Ray's early thread last sunday. Now that the line is at 6 I am buying it back. Still think Philly wins but worried about a FG game. Plus a 5 or 6 pt win and I still get something. But the main reason is I live in Atlanta and have already made $100 worth of bets with Atlanta fans so just need Philly to win now. Might have a few more as there are many confident ATL fans here and they have the right to be. So even if Philly wins by 5 and I get the scalp I will not count the win. Just wanted to clarify since I did post Philly last sunday. As for the real superbowl, I mean AFC championship:
PIT +3 (-105) 105/100
If I did not have my future on the steelers this would be at least a $300 play. I know it may be suicide to put more on them when I already have much riding on them but even if they do win there is a chance (anything can happen but i think they kill whoever wins in the NFC) they could get upset in the superbowl and then I would have lost my future and not had the chance to make any $ if they beat NE. PLus I have almost always hedged future bets and usually end up almost evening out and wondering why I didn't stick to my guns. Again I know most might not agree but knowing I would have to hedge w/ NE at -155 (no way i would take them at -3 and lose both bets when they win by 2) makes a hedge even less appealing. Plus w/ PIT at +3 tiny chance of a cover if they do lose. Now for my reasoning if anyone made it this far..
Not much left to say but I really feel this is a game where a great case can be made for either team. However the trend on home dogs is nice but I really didn't factor that in. I am just a sucker for teams that have a top running game, a top defense, and are at home. After watching Big Ben last week if this game were in NE I wouldnt take Pitt + anything. Yes he looked bad last week and that was at home but just feel many are assuming he will look horrible today. He might but I expect the squeelers to dance w/ who brung them and that was a top defense and a punishing running game. Offense held the jets to 3 last week and feel the return of Dillon is not as big as most. Would he have helped them gain more then 5 yds rushing in the game on halloween? yes. But nobody runs well on Pitt and Dillon in his career hasn't done much vs them. Neither has Bettis but I actually believe Bettis might be the 3rd best running back on his team as Vernon Hayes is a very underrated back. Loss of Seymour (even if he plays I question how effective he'll be) and Law will hurt NE today even it didnt last week. Bellicheck can come up with a scheme that will mesmerize most teams but its hard to scheme against a team that relys on smash mouth football. Sure Belicheck is a better coach then Cower but I don't think it is as big as most. Cower's record in the championship game is well documented. But this is still a very good coach who gets the most out of his players. Just don't see this as Bellichec vs Martz or anything like that. Maybe the intensity wasn't there or whatever but pride should have set in when Pittsburgh was gashing NE that game to the tune of over 200 yds and they just couldn't stop them. Pats have the obvious QB and coach advantages but don't see many else. I know, the way these guys play talent isnt as important but still feel that coupled w/ the loss of a few of there top guys (Law has been out a while but this is the most talented team they have played since his injury) and feel the home dog looks good here. Close win over the jets and NE trouncing the Colts has made PIT a home dog and I will happily take the pts. I have not bet against NE this yr and have sided w/ them at least 4-5 times maybe more so I know it is stupid to try to build a bankroll betting against them. But I have to go w/ my capping and who I really think covers and that is PIT.
gl to all today, hope to be around for some halftime plays.
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