AFL Prelim Finals

[Cartman88]

It seems the odds will be something like:

Essendon $1.25 vs Hawthorn $4.00
Brisbane $1.25 vs Richmond $4.00

I think Essendon & Brisbane will be way too classy this weekend. I prefer not to take such a short price but will be happy if I can get a parlay paying $1.60 or more.

 

[Cartman88]

I have just checked out the prices available for the above parlay and it varies from $1.50 to $1.62 with my books.

I will be taking the $1.62 @ Sportodds or Canbet (2 units)

I don't like labelling bets "certainties" or "locks" because anything can happen, but I will be very surprised if this is not an easy winner.

 

[RobertBIrish]

Thanks for the picks buddy I have never bet Aussie Rules but read your post and bet the same parlay even though we sweated one out we won and thank you !

 

[Cartman88]

Thanks RobertBIrish,

A few nervous moments but a nice collect in the end !!

Final Scores:

Essendon 76 Hawthorn 67
Brisbane 136 Richmond 68

We now move to the Grand Final next week between clearly the best two sides in the competition.

I have huge respect for Essendon but when I look at their form in the recent weeks they are certainly not the dominant force they were last year.

I am so impressed with Brisbane who have now racked up an amazing 15 consecutive wins. They have a very well balanced team and with the return of Lynch next week are going to be at full strength.

I have no doubt the bookies will make Brisbane underdogs (probably around $2.35) and I think at that price they are going to be a strong play.

 

[turtle]

Thanks Cartman I jumped on the canbet parley and was never worried LOL.
Good going.

 

[RobertBIrish]

As soon as the line comes out I am all over Brisbane my friend thanks!!

 

[AussieVamp2]

and Essendon gets some Lloyd guy? (rigged tribunal)

 

[TORONTO-VIGILANTE]

I agree, I'll have a little bit on Brisbane meself.

 

[Cartman88]

I think there will be a few of us backing Brisbane next week and for anyone that is I would recommend backing them ATS (especially if anything better than +9.5).

 

[AussieVamp2]

Not me, currently.

although perhaps the popular side.

Few issues I see :-

travel for Brisbane
on the big stage for the first time a big ask

15 game serial abuse of other teams not necessarily a good thing if it starts to get a little wobbly - come apart horribly then

given a few injury issues, so that not as nice, but Voss has this propensity to get hurt too

seems the public liking the underdogs in recent grand finals..

of course, love to have the Lions win, good for football so to speak

 

[Cartman88]

AV2 has raised a few interesting points.

The travel factor is important as Brisbane need to fly to Melbourne 48 hours before the match and also attend a function on Friday. Playing at the MCG favours Essendon slightly but Brisbane have shown on numerous occasions this year they can win away from home.

Leigh Matthews has openly said it remains to be seen how his side will react to the whole Grand Final atmosphere but also said he is confident that they will be ok.

The 15 game "serial abuse" can only be a good thing IMO. Brisbane as a club have a winning culture and huge self belief in each other. They have had to come from behind to win some games and have always shown composure under pressure. I would rather be going into a Grand Final 15-0 than say 12-3.

Injuries will not be a major factor pre game as it seems nearly everyone should be available. Naturally there will be a tendancy for injuries to occur throughout the Grand Final as it is going to be a tough game. Both sides are in a similar position with Voss and Hird both vulnerable.

I agree the public tends to support the underdogs but this is human nature and it happens in every sport. I think in the past 2 grand finals the public have been split and possibly even leaned towards the favoured team. Kangaroos vs Carlton in 1999. Essendon vs Melbourne in 2000. I guess in the public eye Brisbane may be considered an outsider here but on form this is a very even game.

Looking at the bigger picture Essendon are not the dominant side they were last year and have shown many times they can be beaten. On the other hand Brisbane look the real deal and have a side that will be very good in the next couple of years.

All things considered I would price Brisbane at $2.05 or $2.10 so anything over that (which I will get) remains a value play.

 

[AussieVamp2]

opened 2.20 at Tabcorp

was 1.95 last I checked

 

[AussieVamp2]

got the Brownlow medal distraction now too

however, it is Akermanis, about the only guy that kept his head when rest of them fell apart a while back

 

[Cartman88]

There has certainly been some interesting movement in the betting for the AFL Grand Final.

Brisbane:
Started the week paying $2.25
Best available seems to be $2.10 (+6.5)
Lowest price seems to be $1.90

Essendon:
Started the week paying $1.65
Best available seems to be $1.87
Lowest price seems to be $1.72

I would expect some late money to come in for Essendon (especially playing in Melbourne) as $1.87 is the best price that has been on offer for them all season.

I am still leaning towards playing Brisbane ATS but will wait until later in the week to make a final decision.

 

[AussieVamp2]

last couple of grand finals late money in Melbourne has been for the underdog

 

[Cartman88]

The way things are heading Essendon might be the underdogs by the end of today !!

 

[AussieVamp2]

essendon now 1.85 at the tab