AFL. Rd. 14.

[MrChristo]

Richmond SU (2.15)

Can't see why Tige's wouldn't be favs here. Bradshaw back this week I guess, possibly Kennelly too, but Richmond are playing as well as anyone right now.
Winning games at the bookends...the (equal) second best team (behind Dogs) for Forward/Back ratio numbers in their last 4 games (1.82 F / 2.21 B)...Teams simply have to beat them in the middle to be able to win the game.
Swans not a big I50 team at all on the road...av. just 43...51 being their best @ a pretty terrible Port right now...
...even so, Rich av'ing 49 in their last 6...51.4 if we take out the Saints.
Terrible record v. Swans, but mostly as BIG dogs (haven't been favs in last 10)...
...Team playing better football shouldn't be 2.15.

Adelaide -7.5

I've been impressed with the Crows at home lately...
...back to their (historical) Neil Craig midfield defensive best! +10 I50's now on the whole season @ home...have topped 53 in each of their last 4 aswell!!...in fact 65 and 60 last 2!! ...
...that's god-awful news for a Bomber midfield who have given up 60+ in each of their last 3. [Funny how Hille has missed 2.9 of those 3 games ]
Exactly the same conversion rate over the last 4 games (2.08 each), Crows going better at home tho (1.94)...
...although their D can still be a worry (pretty stable @ ~1.85), sheer weight of I50's should ensure at least 4 more shots.


Saints -32.5

Saints are playing as well now as any time in the season, won their last 5 comfortably...3 relatively tough games...ok, 2 Geelong and @ Freo...av'ing +12 I50's in their last 6 games...and defense is huge, allowing a shot just every 2.5 entries!! Amazing...almost unbelievable, given they are also holding teams to just 43 I50's, which is best in the comp.
I have no idea how Melbourne score here...av'ing just 17.75 shots in their last 4...just 37 entries (@ -21!!! )
It really is just a mis-match.
Saints have won last 3 meetings by 79, 37 (Gold Coast), 47...
...Dees have lost their last 7 @ the dome, by an av. of 47 points...inc. a 26 point (11 shot) loss by a comparitively rubbish Kangaroos this year.

 

[kickserv]

You should contact me 1st before ya post any selections:00014

We all know the best cappers of AFL football are :canada1

 

[MrChristo]

Haven't you got your own football game chasing Sasquatch's or something?! :0corn :mj07:

Carlton v. Brisbane under 189.5

Lions just don't score on the road. Haven't topped 90 away from home this year, haven't topped 100 in their last 10 in Melbourne, they av. just 66 ppg in their lat 6 in Vic! (From late last year)
They have very similar road stats to WC, who kicked 76 v. Carlton @ the Dome a couple of weeks back.
Clearly Brown and Fev out make things all the better. :SIB
Blues aren't a big scoring team, av'ing a bit over 24 shots in their last 5...even at 30 shots (which they've achieved just twice all season) 15.15 = 105, which I doubt very much will be enough to get the 190.



And, although I not a big fan of long term bets at all...
...these look too good to pass up!

St. Kilda minor Premiers [6.50]

Already shown to be the best team in the comp...and looking likely to get Riewoldt back in the next 3 weeks or so...
...1 tough game v. Collingwood...
...Brisbane @ 'Gabba should be ok...5 of last 6 @ Dome...last game @ Crows could be a danger...
Geelong are now missing 90% of their forward line...
...won't (shouldn't!) hurt this week, but Hawks @ MCG, Crows @ AAMI 2 of next 3, plus a Collingwood game to come...
...it's such a 50/50 prop [even if we slip the Pies in (who I legitimately don't think will) it's still a 1/3 shot]...6.50 is crazy!


Wooden Spoon...Melbourne. [17.00] [Finish last]

Do they win another game? Saints, no. @ Freo no. @ Brisbane, no. @ Port, unlikely. v. Hawks, no.
...leaves home games v. Ess, Syd, Rich, Roos...may sneak one of those...
...but again, a crazy price for the worst form team in the comp right now, given the Crows are a certainty to beat them, and Richmond are in solid form.
West Coast are the main danger [Paying a far more realistic 2.25] I would think, but they have 4 winnable home games to come.
17.00!! :scared :0074


That Dancing Banana has me hooked!

 

[kickserv]

Yep......you gotta love that bananna:SIB

And yes, we have our own football....played in the arctic tundra with seals, quite fun actually.

 

[kickserv]

kickserv AFL action for Sat night/Sunday morning.........


Geelong Cats -36.0 beat North Melbourne Kangaroos $1.91 (-110) *1 million dollars

Richmond Tigers +5.5 Sydney Swans $1.95 (-105) 2 million dollars

 

[kickserv]

Looks like MrChristo did well in Rd. 14

 

[kickserv]

as for kickserv........

:mj12:

 

[MrChristo]

as for kickserv........

:mj12:

1-1 with a double stake 1.95 winner can't be all bad, kick!! :scared :shrug:

I do have the advantage of actually being on the same side of the Earth as the games you know! :mj07:

4-0 and a couple of good results for the long term bets. :0074

:mj06:

 

[kickserv]

Well I thought I'd lost the Richmond game.....whoops:SIB

Wooo Hooo:00hour