AFL Rd. 16.

[MrChristo]

Adelaide +24.5

Last 5 58-40 I50's!...Geelong a mild 54-49...Crows 52-41 at home on the season even...their D still is a concern, and it's easy to argue their recent opponents haven't been at all flash, but Geelong's form is far from impressive...
...not to mention 3 common opponents in those 5 game...Crows have Geelong covered in a lot of areas in those games...[Ess and WC]
...even the Hawks game (which looks bad on the surface), there's effectively only 4 shots difference, Crows on the road in that one too obviously.
Cats have won the last couple here easily, but since the last time (early last year) Geelong have won just 1 of their last 7 away from Vic by more than 24.
Another thing worth mentioning is Geelong away from Kardinia...av'ing just +2 I50's and +2 shots...
Reckon the Crows are a genuine chance of getting up here.
4 goals looks big.

 

[MrChristo]

Sydney +11.5

Carlton can't score...a shot every 2.24 entries in their last 5 is 2nd worst...up against the 4th best Swans (give up a shot every 2.23)...even on the road the Swans have been solid (2.10)...
...what actaully is impressive about the Swans on the road is their scoring! Are creating a shot every 1.85 entries (Only Freo better!)...take out the game @ Geelong it goes to 1.79...
Tough to see Carlton dominating the midfield enough to get passed those kind of numbers.
Jusst 3 trips to Melbourne this year have been a 2 and a 4 point loss (Hawks and Rich, arguably going better than Carlton right now), and a 40 win over North at this venue...
...actually again, take out the top 3 teams in the comp. and the Swans have lost just 1 game of their last 6 in Melbourne by more than 11...
...admittedly that was v. Carlton last year here, but i) Just 4 I50's difference in that game...if that happens again here Swans win...ii) Fev and Kruezer combined for 7.3. (both now missing)

Fremantle top scoring team, Sunday ONLY. [2.25]

Play Melbourne for a start, who in their last 5 trips to Perth have given up 30, 34, 34, 42!! & 32 shots...
...in 2 interstate trips this year (Adelaide and Darwin) have given up 30 and 37 shots...
...and have given up an av. of 30 shots in their last 7 games...just 2 of those under 30...
...giving up av. 57 I50's in their last 5 games, and Freo score @ 1.68 entries.
Freo av'ing 110 ppg at home, and 120 ppg without St. Kilda/Coll.
Pretty sure they'll rack up a score here...

...only other games are Carlton/Swans in the Dome which certainly shouldn't produce too many fireworks, and North/Richmond outside in what looks like it might be another wet/slippery ordinary day, plus neither team exactly high scoring anyway.

:toast:

 

[MrChristo]

Sydney @ Carlton under 180.5

Opened at a pretty realistic low 170's, and somehow ended up here!
Already mentioned Carlton's inability to score, esp. against this solid Sydney D, but Swans are hardly going to run up a score themselves.
Av. 44 I50's on the road, so although they do convert well, they won't end up with a big score.
3 of Swans' 4 @ Vic this year have been under this...only a trip to Geelong when they gave up 126 went 180+ ...and all of their last 8 overall have been 174 or lower.

 

[MrChristo]

Fremantle played like Betty White out there, but still a nice little 7-1 posted plays.

:toast:

 

[kickserv]

Betty White is tough.


Well done:SIB