0-4 last week.
10-6-1 in own thread.
20-15-1 since first posting in Rd. 10.
Never force bets on a week when you know bad things are going to happen...
(Genuinely surprised about Brisbane's scoring explosion tho!! :scared )
St. Kilda look decentvalue @ 1.30 on Friday night...although taking them on the -21 h'cap doesn't interst me in the least.
They've won just 1 game out of their last 10 by more than 17...and that includes sneaky wins over Richmond and Carlton last week.
They are a team who genuinely worry the Dogs tho. Strong defensive midfield and a big forward line.
Have won the last 2 meetings by 50 (1 this season), and in the first game this year Dogs had Cross, Griffen and Gilbee all playing well.
Both teams scoring numbers are very similar both for in the dome and for the last 5 games, but Saints midfield and defense both significantly better.
Can't see them dropping this one with finals now a distinct possiblilty.
Impossible to take Collingwood @ 1.10! In fact I was quite prepared to take the Blues +32.5...until I saw they are playing 2 more rookies.
End of season rubbish...teams don't want to win, and the books are hugely under-pricing the obvious favs.
Last week showed Collingwood have some serious problems...but Carlton's defensse doesn't look like turning around, so Rocca might get a kick.
Staying away.
Geelong/Richmond...moving on! 1.04 and -52.5!
I'll be taking the over somewhere I dare say. But who could possibly take those odds?!
Brisbane. 1.70. Kangaroos still doing nothing wrong, but it's been a long time since their last "good" win.
Brisbane have had an amazing last 5 weeks...av'ing nearly +14 I50's, score at 1.75 and allow 2.18! Now that does include Melbourne and Carlton games...but they have won @ West Coast (even if they weren't at full strength), they dominated the game v. Port and should have won easily, and then there was last week!
Kangas won the first meeting, but it was at the Gold Coast. Pretty sure Brisbane get some revenge with a win in this one.
I still think Port are being over-rated. Was pretty stupid taking the worst team in the AFL against them last week...and I don't think I'll go against them here either.
Would have liked Crows +20ish, but Roo out again, and even if Rutten comes back, who will he play on? Tredrea out and it's been Port's small forwards doing all the damage.
I still suggest that Port's last 7 games have all been against either crap team or lucky wins.
Steering clear.
Melbourne don't want to win. Not that it would matter if they did, 'cause lord are they poor!!
I'll be taking the 1.10 for the Swannies! Again, not totally interested in the -40 odd, given that the game is at Canberra and not the SCG.
Still, Melbourne's defense has been astoundingly bad all season. They've allowed over 30 shots in each of their last 6 games...
...and I tell you what, 8.50 for the highest scoring team (Swans) isn't the worst thing I've seen!!! :SIB
Hawks are good value @ 1.82 aswelll imo. Obviously losing 3 of their best players before the game last week hurt badly...and on the flip side Essendon got the Crows without 2 of their most important.
Ess av. -7 I50's in their last 5 and -7 at the 'G, Hawthorn been super defensively all year. Their problem lately has been scoring, but Essendon have allowed 30+ shots in 5 of last 6.
The Hawks won the first meeting this season comfortably with 10 more shots and 17 more I50's!!
I think the odds for Freo/WC are about right. Obviously a bit tough to get a decent read on the Eagles now they are back to full strength...but not sure how much to take last week into consideration given Dogs had 6 of their top 10 players out.
What I do think we'll see is a much higher scoring game than these two traditionally produce.
Only Melbourne and Carlton have worse D's than these two teams in the last 5 games! (1.76 each)
There's nothing that suggests to me that Freo can win, but -21.5 is a little much and <1.30is a touch short too.
EDIT: Actually, scrap that. I've found a 1.35 for the Eagles. :00hour
So, taking a couple of multis this week:
St. Kilda/Brisbane/West Coast (3.03)
Hawthorn/Sydney (2.00)
and will have an eye out for Geelong/Richmond and Freo/WC totals.
Good luck all
10-6-1 in own thread.
20-15-1 since first posting in Rd. 10.
Never force bets on a week when you know bad things are going to happen...
(Genuinely surprised about Brisbane's scoring explosion tho!! :scared )
St. Kilda look decentvalue @ 1.30 on Friday night...although taking them on the -21 h'cap doesn't interst me in the least.
They've won just 1 game out of their last 10 by more than 17...and that includes sneaky wins over Richmond and Carlton last week.
They are a team who genuinely worry the Dogs tho. Strong defensive midfield and a big forward line.
Have won the last 2 meetings by 50 (1 this season), and in the first game this year Dogs had Cross, Griffen and Gilbee all playing well.
Both teams scoring numbers are very similar both for in the dome and for the last 5 games, but Saints midfield and defense both significantly better.
Can't see them dropping this one with finals now a distinct possiblilty.
Impossible to take Collingwood @ 1.10! In fact I was quite prepared to take the Blues +32.5...until I saw they are playing 2 more rookies.
End of season rubbish...teams don't want to win, and the books are hugely under-pricing the obvious favs.
Last week showed Collingwood have some serious problems...but Carlton's defensse doesn't look like turning around, so Rocca might get a kick.
Staying away.
Geelong/Richmond...moving on! 1.04 and -52.5!
I'll be taking the over somewhere I dare say. But who could possibly take those odds?!
Brisbane. 1.70. Kangaroos still doing nothing wrong, but it's been a long time since their last "good" win.
Brisbane have had an amazing last 5 weeks...av'ing nearly +14 I50's, score at 1.75 and allow 2.18! Now that does include Melbourne and Carlton games...but they have won @ West Coast (even if they weren't at full strength), they dominated the game v. Port and should have won easily, and then there was last week!
Kangas won the first meeting, but it was at the Gold Coast. Pretty sure Brisbane get some revenge with a win in this one.
I still think Port are being over-rated. Was pretty stupid taking the worst team in the AFL against them last week...and I don't think I'll go against them here either.
Would have liked Crows +20ish, but Roo out again, and even if Rutten comes back, who will he play on? Tredrea out and it's been Port's small forwards doing all the damage.
I still suggest that Port's last 7 games have all been against either crap team or lucky wins.
Steering clear.
Melbourne don't want to win. Not that it would matter if they did, 'cause lord are they poor!!
I'll be taking the 1.10 for the Swannies! Again, not totally interested in the -40 odd, given that the game is at Canberra and not the SCG.
Still, Melbourne's defense has been astoundingly bad all season. They've allowed over 30 shots in each of their last 6 games...
...and I tell you what, 8.50 for the highest scoring team (Swans) isn't the worst thing I've seen!!! :SIB
Hawks are good value @ 1.82 aswelll imo. Obviously losing 3 of their best players before the game last week hurt badly...and on the flip side Essendon got the Crows without 2 of their most important.
Ess av. -7 I50's in their last 5 and -7 at the 'G, Hawthorn been super defensively all year. Their problem lately has been scoring, but Essendon have allowed 30+ shots in 5 of last 6.
The Hawks won the first meeting this season comfortably with 10 more shots and 17 more I50's!!
I think the odds for Freo/WC are about right. Obviously a bit tough to get a decent read on the Eagles now they are back to full strength...but not sure how much to take last week into consideration given Dogs had 6 of their top 10 players out.
What I do think we'll see is a much higher scoring game than these two traditionally produce.
Only Melbourne and Carlton have worse D's than these two teams in the last 5 games! (1.76 each)
There's nothing that suggests to me that Freo can win, but -21.5 is a little much and <1.30is a touch short too.
EDIT: Actually, scrap that. I've found a 1.35 for the Eagles. :00hour
So, taking a couple of multis this week:
St. Kilda/Brisbane/West Coast (3.03)
Hawthorn/Sydney (2.00)
and will have an eye out for Geelong/Richmond and Freo/WC totals.
Good luck all
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