Still happy not to get involved tonight. Would usually be looking at the Bombers and maybe an under, but that backline scares the hell out of me.
Finding it hard to pick a Rich/Bris winner too. Lions really could have beaten Carlton last trip to Melbourne...who are a mile better than Richmond...but they still haven't had more than 26 shots all season, and that was last week at home.
Richmond haven't toppeed 94 points, and now no Richo...
Somewhat strangely I think it will be a high scorer...although again, who knows what kind of total we'll see!
Brisbane D has been over-blown due to 4 of 6 at home...bit hard to judge away form with the trip to Geelong...but either way, they are allowing 57 I50's per game!
110 I50's last year n the Dome with a crap load of shots in a game that was tight all night...
I think Brisbane have the better personel, but still...
Geelong win, but by how much? These Richmond/Melbourne type games are becoming a bit too common to trust high spreads...due almost exclusively to rubbish kicking for goal.
Who knows?
Kangas bring in Cambell and Ross to try to kick start some scoring, but it does look a big ask.
Happy with the ML tho I think.
Think I'm also happy with the 1.30 for the Blues. 4 of 6 at home for Freo, and last week was a joke...Av'ing just 45 I50's per game, the fewest in the league, up against a surprisingly good defensive midfield of Carlton (allowing the 4th fewest), just don't see how Freo get enough chances to kick a wining score.
Dockers also have the worst defensive numbers, allowing a shot every 1.78 entries, so will have to do better than break even in entries to have a chance.
Won't happen.
4 goals could be a little bit tight given the neutral ground, but tough to see Carlton dropping this one.
Crows/Doggies ay? It's absolutely a game the Dogs should win. Crows with big problems up forward, but the Dogs only having 25 shots v. Carlton is a concern.
Reason why the Crows have been losing games this year (esp. home) is at the other end! Normally solid D, but allowing a shot every 1.86, and 1.64 at home!!! (Geelong and maybe Port skew that...but Dogs every bit as good as Port)
Happy tht the last 3 have all been "explainable" Doggy losses, but this is a real test...
...tough to take them as small favs tho.
Not convinced the Saints are such good things either. Collingwood like to be that hard pressing, hard tackling team that just may worry St. Kilda. Dogs managed it for a quarter and a half, but lack of big forwards meant too much running for the midfield...
...which could well be the Pies' problem as well. Are Leigh Brown and Travis Cloke any better than Robert Murphy or Big Willy?
Interested in a total...if I see 1.50 somewhere I might have a bite at the Saints too.
Good Luck all.
West Coast -28.5
Carlton 1.30
Port 1.45
Finding it hard to pick a Rich/Bris winner too. Lions really could have beaten Carlton last trip to Melbourne...who are a mile better than Richmond...but they still haven't had more than 26 shots all season, and that was last week at home.
Richmond haven't toppeed 94 points, and now no Richo...
Somewhat strangely I think it will be a high scorer...although again, who knows what kind of total we'll see!
Brisbane D has been over-blown due to 4 of 6 at home...bit hard to judge away form with the trip to Geelong...but either way, they are allowing 57 I50's per game!
110 I50's last year n the Dome with a crap load of shots in a game that was tight all night...
I think Brisbane have the better personel, but still...
Geelong win, but by how much? These Richmond/Melbourne type games are becoming a bit too common to trust high spreads...due almost exclusively to rubbish kicking for goal.
Who knows?
Kangas bring in Cambell and Ross to try to kick start some scoring, but it does look a big ask.
Happy with the ML tho I think.
Think I'm also happy with the 1.30 for the Blues. 4 of 6 at home for Freo, and last week was a joke...Av'ing just 45 I50's per game, the fewest in the league, up against a surprisingly good defensive midfield of Carlton (allowing the 4th fewest), just don't see how Freo get enough chances to kick a wining score.
Dockers also have the worst defensive numbers, allowing a shot every 1.78 entries, so will have to do better than break even in entries to have a chance.
Won't happen.
4 goals could be a little bit tight given the neutral ground, but tough to see Carlton dropping this one.
Crows/Doggies ay? It's absolutely a game the Dogs should win. Crows with big problems up forward, but the Dogs only having 25 shots v. Carlton is a concern.
Reason why the Crows have been losing games this year (esp. home) is at the other end! Normally solid D, but allowing a shot every 1.86, and 1.64 at home!!! (Geelong and maybe Port skew that...but Dogs every bit as good as Port)
Happy tht the last 3 have all been "explainable" Doggy losses, but this is a real test...
...tough to take them as small favs tho.
Not convinced the Saints are such good things either. Collingwood like to be that hard pressing, hard tackling team that just may worry St. Kilda. Dogs managed it for a quarter and a half, but lack of big forwards meant too much running for the midfield...
...which could well be the Pies' problem as well. Are Leigh Brown and Travis Cloke any better than Robert Murphy or Big Willy?
Interested in a total...if I see 1.50 somewhere I might have a bite at the Saints too.
Good Luck all.
West Coast -28.5
Carlton 1.30
Port 1.45
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