AFL Rd. 7.

MrChristo

The Zapper
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Nov 11, 2001
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Sexlexia...
Still happy not to get involved tonight. Would usually be looking at the Bombers and maybe an under, but that backline scares the hell out of me.

Finding it hard to pick a Rich/Bris winner too. Lions really could have beaten Carlton last trip to Melbourne...who are a mile better than Richmond...but they still haven't had more than 26 shots all season, and that was last week at home.
Richmond haven't toppeed 94 points, and now no Richo...
Somewhat strangely I think it will be a high scorer...although again, who knows what kind of total we'll see!
Brisbane D has been over-blown due to 4 of 6 at home...bit hard to judge away form with the trip to Geelong...but either way, they are allowing 57 I50's per game!
110 I50's last year n the Dome with a crap load of shots in a game that was tight all night...
I think Brisbane have the better personel, but still...

Geelong win, but by how much? These Richmond/Melbourne type games are becoming a bit too common to trust high spreads...due almost exclusively to rubbish kicking for goal.
Who knows?

Kangas bring in Cambell and Ross to try to kick start some scoring, but it does look a big ask.
Happy with the ML tho I think.

Think I'm also happy with the 1.30 for the Blues. 4 of 6 at home for Freo, and last week was a joke...Av'ing just 45 I50's per game, the fewest in the league, up against a surprisingly good defensive midfield of Carlton (allowing the 4th fewest), just don't see how Freo get enough chances to kick a wining score.
Dockers also have the worst defensive numbers, allowing a shot every 1.78 entries, so will have to do better than break even in entries to have a chance.
Won't happen.
4 goals could be a little bit tight given the neutral ground, but tough to see Carlton dropping this one.

Crows/Doggies ay? It's absolutely a game the Dogs should win. Crows with big problems up forward, but the Dogs only having 25 shots v. Carlton is a concern.
Reason why the Crows have been losing games this year (esp. home) is at the other end! Normally solid D, but allowing a shot every 1.86, and 1.64 at home!!! (Geelong and maybe Port skew that...but Dogs every bit as good as Port)
Happy tht the last 3 have all been "explainable" Doggy losses, but this is a real test...
...tough to take them as small favs tho.

Not convinced the Saints are such good things either. Collingwood like to be that hard pressing, hard tackling team that just may worry St. Kilda. Dogs managed it for a quarter and a half, but lack of big forwards meant too much running for the midfield...
...which could well be the Pies' problem as well. Are Leigh Brown and Travis Cloke any better than Robert Murphy or Big Willy? :confused:
Interested in a total...if I see 1.50 somewhere I might have a bite at the Saints too.

Good Luck all. :cool:

West Coast -28.5
Carlton 1.30
Port 1.45
 
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MrChristo

The Zapper
Forum Member
Nov 11, 2001
4,414
5
0
Sexlexia...
Brisbane @ Richmond under 192.5 (1.90)

Didn't realise it was at the 'G...Brisbane have had problems scoring here, even in 2004-05 when they were big favs...have only topped 92 one time in their last 9 games.
Both teams struggling up forward this season...Brisbane haven't topped 26 shots, Tiges only 2 games over 23 shots (Melbourne and Kangas, both rubbish)...and still only scored 94 v. the Roos anyway as their highest score.
Both teams allowing a lot of I50's, but not sure either have the forward capabilities to take advantage.
Not the best day for football in Melbourne, I reckon both teams will struggle to hit 100.
 

MrChristo

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Nov 11, 2001
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Sexlexia...
Dogs/Crows under 180.5 (1.71)...[saver on 181-200]

Seems very high. Much like last year the Crows play very conservative at home...I know they've played Geelong and St. Kilda, but still, just 44 I50's per game...allowing only 46.
Dogs, despite looking like they're in fast forward most of the time are still only getting about 48 I50's per game.
3 of the last 4 meetings @ AAMI have been 180 or less...and they were all with the Crows kicking 100+ which is unlikely today.
Only one Crows game this season has topped 184 and it took Geelong to kick 21.9 for it to happen...Dogs have only had >25 shots twice all season, again unlikely here.
 

MrChristo

The Zapper
Forum Member
Nov 11, 2001
4,414
5
0
Sexlexia...
St. Kilda v. Collingwood under 189.5

Saints, allowing an amazing 39 I50's so far, not allowed over 21 shots...
Collingwood have really only played 1 good defensive team so far and had 25 shots @ Brisbane...and have only given up more than 93 points one time to the red-hot Cats.
Also have to assume the 'Friday Night' mentality comes here with the Pies. Big game on a big stage, which has meant concentrate defensively for Malthouse coached Collingwood teams.
Teams a combined 3-9 under this number so far. 4 of the last 5 meetings under, and the over only had 47 shots in a game where Collingwod had 50 I50's, which is unlikely here.
 
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