AFL Round 3

[Cartman88]

Opening lines (from Centrebet):

12 Apr 19:45 AEST
CARLTON 1.95
COLLINGWOOD 1.80

13 Apr 14:10 AEST
RICHMOND 1.68
MELBOURNE 2.10

13 Apr 14:40 AEST
ADELAIDE 1.80
SYDNEY 1.95

13 Apr 19:10 AEST
KANGAROOS 1.50
GEELONG 2.50

13 Apr 19:10 AEST
BRISBANE 1.62
ESSENDON 2.20

14 Apr 13:10 AEST
HAWTHORN 1.28
FREMANTLE 3.45

14 Apr 15:40 AEST
WEST COAST 1.62
BULLDOGS 2.20

14 Apr 14:10 AEST
ST KILDA 2.65
PORT ADELAIDE 1.45

 

[Cartman88]

Opening lines (from Qld TAB):

12 Apr 19:45 AEST
CARLTON 2.00
COLLINGWOOD 1.72

13 Apr 14:10 AEST
RICHMOND 1.72
MELBOURNE 2.00

13 Apr 14:40 AEST
ADELAIDE 1.72
SYDNEY 2.00

13 Apr 19:10 AEST
KANGAROOS 1.45
GEELONG 2.55

13 Apr 19:10 AEST
BRISBANE 1.65
ESSENDON 2.10

14 Apr 13:10 AEST
HAWTHORN 1.30
FREMANTLE 3.20

14 Apr 15:40 AEST
WEST COAST 1.60
BULLDOGS 2.20

14 Apr 14:10 AEST
ST KILDA 2.55
PORT ADELAIDE 1.45

 

[Cartman88]

Some close betting matchups this week and a couple of big clashes with traditional rivals Carlton and Collingwood meeting at the MCG and premiership favs Brisbane and Essendon playing at the Gabba.

Nothing stands out early but I will have a decent look and be back later in the week with some plays.

 

[beast2]

Year to Date: 3-4

Round 3 Plays
Carlton +5.5 d Collingwood
Kangaroos -14.5 d Geelong
Port -18.5 d St Kilda

Craig

 

[Cartman88]

Three AFL plays for me this weekend:

Melbourne +6.5 vs Richmond (1 unit)
Fremantle +22.5 vs Hawthorn (2 units)
Port Adelaide -18.5 vs St Kilda (2 units)

 

[Cartman88]

Have done some further capping on tonights match and I am going to add the following play:

Carlton +5.5 vs Collingwood (1 unit)

 

[PAWAQATSI]

Year to date 3-5

Have a liking for the Swans @ $2 over the Crows.
Kangaroos look good for the cover and the Bombers are good value Under 39.5 pts @ $2.85.

Even though Port let me down last week I'm nominating them for my "poo-poo" platter special this week to easily cover the 19.5 against the Saints.

*Note* see seperate thread for AFL mechanical system

Good Luck All

 

[gloveski]

Year To Date 4-4

Only one for me kangaroos -13.5

 

[Cartman88]

Carlton 75
Collingwood 55



Nice start to the weekend with Carlton winning outright and easily covering the spread. The game was played in very wet conditions and Carlton basically maintained a handy 2-3 goal the whole night. Collingwood didn't help their own cause by making 2 stupid errors inside their own 50 and also allowing Carlton to score with less than 2 secs remaining in the 1st and 2nd quarter.

 

[Cartman88]

Sat afternoon results:

Richmond 96
Melbourne 76



Things were looking very solid for Melbourne when they went into the final quarter with the lead (plus they were getting 6 pts start). Momentum was on their side and they have been finishing their games off strongly so far this season. Unfortunately the last 20 mins went totally against this trend and Richmond toughed out a 20 pt win.

Adelaide 114
Sydney 84

I saw parts of this match and it appeared Adelaide always had the match won. They jumped out to a big lead and Sydney couldn't peg them back.

 

[Cartman88]

Adding one further play for this weekend:

Kangaroos -13.5 vs Geelong (1 unit)

Originally this looked like a "sucker line" and if it is then they have sucked me in also !!

This season the Kangaroos are 2-0 after strong victories over Port Adelaide and Wstn Bulldogs. The players have plenty of confidence at the moment and fortunately have a coach who will keep them very level headed.

Geelong have possibly the worst list in the comp and this has shown on the field as they are 0-2 after big losses to Essendon and Adelaide. They will need to show huge improvement to remain competitive tonight.

 

[MrChristo]

I've had the same games Cartman

I've seen all the games, and I can honestly say I think football as we know it is in REAL trouble.

The first half of the Geelong/Kanga's game was THE worst hour of football I have watched in my life. (approx. 20 years of solid watching!)

The coaches' constant willingness to flood, combined with your average players below par skill (In this game anyway!) equates to an extremely unattractive, hugely frustrating game to watch.

To kick 4 goals in the first quater at in perfect conditions at Colonial is a disgrace.

The Kanga's have 2 big marking forwards Rocca and Colbert, but contantly wanted to chip sideways and backwards, which of course stems from the fact that the rest of the team is in the back half. (And then Colbert gets dragged! Hardly his fault I wouldn't have thought :shrug: )

When will the rest of the competition look to Brisbane who continue to play the standard 6 backmen and play direct football and have players at the fall of the ball.

Sorry about the whinge ...Just really frustrated with the game at the minute.

If Port play the same way (and they have been flooding severely) they WILL get beaten by St. Kilda tomorrow....God I hope they just open things up, for the game as much as their own chances

 

[Cartman88]

Sat night results:

Geelong 75
Kangaroos 67



Possibly the ugliest game of football this season with both teams making loads of basic errors. It was apparent from early on that the Kangaroos were not playing with the same intensity this week and Geelong were able to capitalise. I will be looking to fade these two teams over the next couple of weeks.

Brisbane 117
Essendon 67

Brisbane stamped themselves as clear premiership favourites after a dominant 50 pt victory over close rivals Essendon. They have now won 19 games in a row (including 3 against Essendon) and with some easier games coming up they are a big chance to equal or break the AFL all time record of 23 games in a row.

 

[TIME TO MAKE $$$]

Any thought onb the Hawks tonight?

I see books are offering Hawkthorne margin of victory 1-40
+135

 

[Cartman88]

Mr Christo,

I can fully understand your whinge about the state of the game as there are plenty of issues facing the AFL at the moment.

I personally wish they could get some more clarity or consistency on things such as ......

Prior opportunity
Holding the ball
Push in the back

You could watch every game played this week and see 8 variations on these rules.

:shrug:

 

[Cartman88]

Time to Make $$$,

I am not a big fan of margin betting on AFL as the odds are generally unappealing.

I would certainly say that Hawthorn by 1-40 is the most likely outcome in the match and one positive is that the three games which have been played in Melbourne so far this weekend have been low scoring affairs. Therefore the chances of a blowout victory are unlikely. I wouldn't say +135 is great value but think it would be worth a look if you could get +150 or more.

I have opted for Freo +22.5 today as there looks to be plenty in their favour.

Their confidence will be high after coming from behind to win last week. They are coached by Chris Connelly who was assistant coach in Hawthorn for 6 years. He knows the players inside out not to mention most of their plays. Fremantle also have Trent Croad after he was let go by Hawthorn last season and he will be looking for a huge performance. Hawthorn are 0-2 this year including a 100 point loss last week. Teams often struggle the week after travelling to Brisbane especially when they have played in the daytime heat.

If this game does end up being a low scoring match then 22 pts start will be very handy.

Whatever you decide tread with some caution as the AFL form has me really confused at the moment.

 

[TIME TO MAKE $$$]

Thanks buddy

Played Hawks victory 1-40 +140
2*

 

[Cartman88]

Good luck ..... as long as they don't win by more than 22 !!!!

 

[Cartman88]

Sun afternoon scores:

Hawthorn 89
Fremantle 79



This game went basically as expected. The score remained close most of the day and the game was in the balance until the last 2 mins. Hawthorn ended up with a 10 pt win which meant Freo covered the +22.5 spread.

Port Adelaide 139
St Kilda 56



Port Adelaide IMO are the third best side in the AFL and today they finally put everything together. An easy 83 pt win and they always had the -18.5 spread well covered. Now that Port Adelaide have there confidence back it may pay to keep following this side as they are very talented.

 

[PAWAQATSI]

AFL Round 3 wrap-up....

Not a real flash weekend of tipping...Swans surprisingly weak against Adelaide...Perhaps they are better than I first thought. The Bombers never in the hunt against the Brisbane "Juggernaut" which is a scary thought!!
Then went and watched my Kangaroos put up a most pathetic display of football (not helped by a one-sided free kick count ) against another average side in the Cats.

But I was always confident of the Power crushing the hapless Saints and went back for a double-dip on Sunday morning

We'll need a few more weeks to settle the ladder down I think.
Year to date 4-8
Bring on round 4.....


By the way.....MrChristo?.....Haven't seen too many tips coming from you this season What's the matter mate? not doing very well in this years Tatts Footy Comp?? :shrug: