I know it's only early in the week but as sick I as am with gambling, I've already checked out the money lines for this weeks games. I see your roos at $3 against the sainters this week pawa along with the pies at the same number. Not up to date with injuries etc. but thinking that one of these, if not both, might be worth a small dig this weekend. Dons are far from convincing although i am not too sure whether buckley, wakelin and tarrant will play and the roos can certainly tame the saints should they show up. I've got the feeling you may like the roos at this price pawa.:shrug:
AFL Week 5
- Thread starter bombercoops
- Start date
Not sure on either of those, bomber, but Port 1.20 to beat the Doggies!! (Aaahh...do I really like this price? Or am I reverse psyching the Dogs like last week??? 
)
Seriously, good price that! Will definately be having them in a few multi's, and hopefully the h'cap will be -25ish.
Also love Adelaide @ 1.67. Will belt Richmond @ the dome.
I think another team at 3.00 is the best chance of an upset this week...Melbourne. Playing well, and no stranger to winning in Sydney. (Although Robertson likely to miss the next 2 or 3.)
On a bright note, I've moved up to 96th over all in the AFL fantasy footy game. (Over 48,500 entries!)
About to plug this week's stats in, hopefully they can tell me something.
Back later in the week I guess.
)Seriously, good price that! Will definately be having them in a few multi's, and hopefully the h'cap will be -25ish.
Also love Adelaide @ 1.67. Will belt Richmond @ the dome.
I think another team at 3.00 is the best chance of an upset this week...Melbourne. Playing well, and no stranger to winning in Sydney. (Although Robertson likely to miss the next 2 or 3.)
On a bright note, I've moved up to 96th over all in the AFL fantasy footy game. (Over 48,500 entries!)
About to plug this week's stats in, hopefully they can tell me something.
Back later in the week I guess.
Geez.....you're freakin' keen bomber!!!
My numbers favour the Saints heavily and I'd be just happy if my Roos can keep it close to save our plunging percentage!!
Do like Melbourne and Adelaide at this point too Christo.
Great minds hey?!!
That's a top effort mate out of 40 odd thousand people. Bloody well done. Keep it up.
My numbers favour the Saints heavily and I'd be just happy if my Roos can keep it close to save our plunging percentage!!
Do like Melbourne and Adelaide at this point too Christo.
Great minds hey?!!
That's a top effort mate out of 40 odd thousand people. Bloody well done. Keep it up.
Agree with you guys also on adelaide. If they don't win this week then they never will and 1.67ish is a solid price for them. Still unsure of injuries but do you guys not give the pies a shot in the anzac game this week? History shows anything can happen in this one. Just curious!:shrug:
8-4 (+6.35)
8-4 (+6.35)
Rightio then. Barring any important team news tonight going with:
Adelaide/Brisbane/Port Adelaide @ 2.28 (2 units)
Carlton +13.5
Geelong +29.5
Be back with a couple of reasons a bit later on.
8-4 (+6.35)
Rightio then. Barring any important team news tonight going with:
Adelaide/Brisbane/Port Adelaide @ 2.28 (2 units)
Carlton +13.5
Geelong +29.5
Be back with a couple of reasons a bit later on.
Carlton +12.5
Ignoring the 116 point flogging in Perth last year, the Eagles haven?t beaten Carlton by more than 8 points since the end of 1996! They have won only once@ Optus since the same year, losing 5 and winning one by a single point v. Carlton in 2002.
By my stats, West Coast have the 2nd worst defense in the League?allowing a goal every 3.17 times the ball enters their 50. (Only Adelaide worse).
I expect Carlton will try to keep the pace of the game slow by bottling up the play at every opportunity. The weather could also be a factor with rain and wind forecast for Melbourne all weekend.
Think the Blues are a big chance to win this game. I definitely think they can keep it close.
Geelong +29.5
Remarkably, Fremantle have beaten Geelong only once ever (14 games) by more than this number. Also Geelong have a very strong record in Perth. They have lost only 2 games out of 14 @ Subi by more than this, winning 7 outright. Fremantle won a tight game in Perth last year by 16 points, but Ben Graham played no part in the game. (Injured in warm up if I remember rightly?).
Fremantle aren?t a team that win by big margins, winning by more than 28 only 3 times in their last 18 games overall. Geelong have a very strong defense now they are all back from injury, and they will stay in this game all the way.
Forecast for cloudy, maybe stormy day, so heat not a factor?and any rain will be a bonus.
Have a good weekend everyone!
Ignoring the 116 point flogging in Perth last year, the Eagles haven?t beaten Carlton by more than 8 points since the end of 1996! They have won only once@ Optus since the same year, losing 5 and winning one by a single point v. Carlton in 2002.
By my stats, West Coast have the 2nd worst defense in the League?allowing a goal every 3.17 times the ball enters their 50. (Only Adelaide worse).
I expect Carlton will try to keep the pace of the game slow by bottling up the play at every opportunity. The weather could also be a factor with rain and wind forecast for Melbourne all weekend.
Think the Blues are a big chance to win this game. I definitely think they can keep it close.
Geelong +29.5
Remarkably, Fremantle have beaten Geelong only once ever (14 games) by more than this number. Also Geelong have a very strong record in Perth. They have lost only 2 games out of 14 @ Subi by more than this, winning 7 outright. Fremantle won a tight game in Perth last year by 16 points, but Ben Graham played no part in the game. (Injured in warm up if I remember rightly?).
Fremantle aren?t a team that win by big margins, winning by more than 28 only 3 times in their last 18 games overall. Geelong have a very strong defense now they are all back from injury, and they will stay in this game all the way.
Forecast for cloudy, maybe stormy day, so heat not a factor?and any rain will be a bonus.
Have a good weekend everyone!
I'm not sure that West Coast are as bad as that MrC. My numbers have five teams in a worse state defensively, and the Crows aren't one of 'em!! Just a different way of looking at the stats I guess. I'm worried by that second half fade-out last week. As you say rain could play the biggest part in this as it is expected here Saturday. Good luck if you're having a crack. Multi value only for me.
I do like the Geelong points start.
Adelaide, Saints, Brisbane and Bombers the strongest.
Multis the way to go with so many short faves.
I do like the Geelong points start.
Adelaide, Saints, Brisbane and Bombers the strongest.
Multis the way to go with so many short faves.
Just be careful of having too much riding on Essendon, PAWA.
Any chance of rain at all scares me off them.
I was at the 2002 game when they were 1.15 fav's and got pumped in the pouring rain....I don't think they've won in the wet since they Dome came along...Seriously!!
Also not so sure why you think your Roos are no chance??
The 2 teams are very similar offensively....They've had 113 scoring shots to Roos 108....217 inside 50's to 206.....130 clearances to 124!!
They main statistical advantage they have is their defense, which has been very solid so far. But, consider they have only played Geelong (15th in scoring), Essendon (9th), Richmond (13th) and Adelaide (14th) none of which are exactly scoring machines!!
Kangaroos are 4rd in scoring behind Port, WC and the Saints.
Add to the mix that Penny is out for the game (has been very good so far), and Hudghton is out from the game last year, there's no reason why the Kangas can't kick a winning score.
Kangas lost by 5 last year in a shoot-out where Gehrig kicked 9. Watt and Archer both got killed. He will be the main problem again but Colbert didn't play last game, could be an option.
Kanga's have won 8 of last 9 meetings, the one loss by 5 points last year, but had 5 more shots at goal!!!
I think the Kangas are every chance to pinch this one....Either way 2.75 for the game total to be over 225 looks very appealing
Any chance of rain at all scares me off them.
I was at the 2002 game when they were 1.15 fav's and got pumped in the pouring rain....I don't think they've won in the wet since they Dome came along...Seriously!!
Also not so sure why you think your Roos are no chance??
The 2 teams are very similar offensively....They've had 113 scoring shots to Roos 108....217 inside 50's to 206.....130 clearances to 124!!
They main statistical advantage they have is their defense, which has been very solid so far. But, consider they have only played Geelong (15th in scoring), Essendon (9th), Richmond (13th) and Adelaide (14th) none of which are exactly scoring machines!!
Kangaroos are 4rd in scoring behind Port, WC and the Saints.
Add to the mix that Penny is out for the game (has been very good so far), and Hudghton is out from the game last year, there's no reason why the Kangas can't kick a winning score.
Kangas lost by 5 last year in a shoot-out where Gehrig kicked 9. Watt and Archer both got killed. He will be the main problem again but Colbert didn't play last game, could be an option.
Kanga's have won 8 of last 9 meetings, the one loss by 5 points last year, but had 5 more shots at goal!!!
I think the Kangas are every chance to pinch this one....Either way 2.75 for the game total to be over 225 looks very appealing
In fact....
In fact....
...making that a play.
Kanga/Saints 226+ @ 2.75 (1 unit)
200-255 @ 3.00 (1/2 unit)
Kangaroos have topped 92 in their last 8 meetings v. Saints....topping 120 in 6 of them!
They've met @ the dome 3 times and totalled 246, 199 and 259.
St. Kilda have topped 114 in 5 of last 6 games at the dome at an av. of 119.8.
Both teams have topped 100 in 3 of their 4 games this year, Saints av. 110.7, Kanga av. 108.2.
Should be a qucik free-flowing game in the dome.
PAWA....should have mentioned too that West Coast allow the third most inside 50's, behind only Hawthorn and the Doggies.
Hail storms farecast for Melbourne Saturday!! West Coast won't know what hit them!!
In fact....
...making that a play.
Kanga/Saints 226+ @ 2.75 (1 unit)
200-255 @ 3.00 (1/2 unit)
Kangaroos have topped 92 in their last 8 meetings v. Saints....topping 120 in 6 of them!
They've met @ the dome 3 times and totalled 246, 199 and 259.
St. Kilda have topped 114 in 5 of last 6 games at the dome at an av. of 119.8.
Both teams have topped 100 in 3 of their 4 games this year, Saints av. 110.7, Kanga av. 108.2.
Should be a qucik free-flowing game in the dome.
PAWA....should have mentioned too that West Coast allow the third most inside 50's, behind only Hawthorn and the Doggies.
Hail storms farecast for Melbourne Saturday!! West Coast won't know what hit them!!
Christo
I'd love my Roos to get the job done but I have them on a downward slide coming off a 6-7 week peak. Sydney's backline shut us down last week and I would expect we'll find it just as tough this week against the Saints to kick a winning score. Gehrig will have a field day!!
THIS IS A BETTER SAINTS TEAM than in years gone by.
Not sure about the points but I expect the Saints to come through with the big 'W' at the end. I hope I'm wrong!!
Multi value only.
I'd love my Roos to get the job done but I have them on a downward slide coming off a 6-7 week peak. Sydney's backline shut us down last week and I would expect we'll find it just as tough this week against the Saints to kick a winning score. Gehrig will have a field day!!
THIS IS A BETTER SAINTS TEAM than in years gone by.
Not sure about the points but I expect the Saints to come through with the big 'W' at the end. I hope I'm wrong!!
Multi value only.
Year to Date: 7-7
Adelaide -10.5 d Richmond
Adelaide has in the last two weeks has lost to Fremantle in the west and St Kilda, whom are now considered definite top 4, by a only a couple of goals in each case. Richmond have on the other hand lost to Geelong by a large margin, who two weeks ago were considered worst side in the AFL, and also St Kilda but in a far less impressive display than Adelaide. Adelaide have won the last 5 against Richmond. Recent form clearly leads me to a play on Adelaide.
Be back later to post plays for rest of round
Craig
Adelaide -10.5 d Richmond
Adelaide has in the last two weeks has lost to Fremantle in the west and St Kilda, whom are now considered definite top 4, by a only a couple of goals in each case. Richmond have on the other hand lost to Geelong by a large margin, who two weeks ago were considered worst side in the AFL, and also St Kilda but in a far less impressive display than Adelaide. Adelaide have won the last 5 against Richmond. Recent form clearly leads me to a play on Adelaide.
Be back later to post plays for rest of round
Craig
Finally, Adelaide, my team, get a win and so does my play. All I can say is how bad are Richmond. Two weeks ago I said Geelong were the worst team in the AFL. I revise that and move Richmond to the position of worst in the AFL.
Further Round 5 Plays:
West Coast -10.5 d Carlton
West Coast have played good football so far this year. There ability to just keep kicking goals is amazing. Carlton have only beaten Geelong and while unlucky against Kangaroos still lost. They can't afford to have a lapse like last week against Essendon. (Note: I still am happy with this play despite the weather forecasts)
Melbourne +21.5 d Sydney
Both of these teams are 3-1 and playing good football. A slight edge to Sydney playing in Sydney but it is at Telstra Stadium which they have only played at a handful of times. Should be a close game and therefore believe a play on Melbourne is warranted.
Other Plays:
St Kilda - Kangaroos
How long can St Kilda continue to play at their current level and remian undefeated? Kangaroos should be fired up after a poor result at Manuka. The roof will be shut so weather is not a factor but just feel Kangaroos will keep this to around 3-4 goals win to St Kilda is on the cards.
Brisbane - Hawthorn
Hawthorn will not get close to Brisbane. The only thing in their favour is that Brisbane are returning from Perth. The only problem I just can't bring myself to take a line over 6 goals.
Port - Bulldogs
Port were very poor last week against Melbourne. They do get back Cornes and Dew this week. Bulldogs finally got the first win last week and the five goal spread looks about right.
Fremantle - Geelong
Fremantle have been winning without playing their best football at the moment which is a great sign for them. Geelong now have a win and somethng to build on. Five goals seems to be on the mark here.
Note: I will leave the Collingwood - Essendon match until closer to match time as I want to know the weather conditions as I think a play on Collingwood will be warranted if it is wet.
Craig
Further Round 5 Plays:
West Coast -10.5 d Carlton
West Coast have played good football so far this year. There ability to just keep kicking goals is amazing. Carlton have only beaten Geelong and while unlucky against Kangaroos still lost. They can't afford to have a lapse like last week against Essendon. (Note: I still am happy with this play despite the weather forecasts)
Melbourne +21.5 d Sydney
Both of these teams are 3-1 and playing good football. A slight edge to Sydney playing in Sydney but it is at Telstra Stadium which they have only played at a handful of times. Should be a close game and therefore believe a play on Melbourne is warranted.
Other Plays:
St Kilda - Kangaroos
How long can St Kilda continue to play at their current level and remian undefeated? Kangaroos should be fired up after a poor result at Manuka. The roof will be shut so weather is not a factor but just feel Kangaroos will keep this to around 3-4 goals win to St Kilda is on the cards.
Brisbane - Hawthorn
Hawthorn will not get close to Brisbane. The only thing in their favour is that Brisbane are returning from Perth. The only problem I just can't bring myself to take a line over 6 goals.
Port - Bulldogs
Port were very poor last week against Melbourne. They do get back Cornes and Dew this week. Bulldogs finally got the first win last week and the five goal spread looks about right.
Fremantle - Geelong
Fremantle have been winning without playing their best football at the moment which is a great sign for them. Geelong now have a win and somethng to build on. Five goals seems to be on the mark here.
Note: I will leave the Collingwood - Essendon match until closer to match time as I want to know the weather conditions as I think a play on Collingwood will be warranted if it is wet.
Craig
beast2 said:
How bad were the Tigers last night??!!! Surely Frawley gets chopped this week as his players have given up on him. And how disgraceful are their supporters spitting on the team as they came off!!
They are a feral bunch at Richmond that would eat their own young!
:nooo:
7 - 9 (-1.58)
Will just be watching my Roos today hoping they can get up, but not confident at all.
Tonight I've got Sydney Under 39.5pts @ $2.35 1xU
Will just be watching my Roos today hoping they can get up, but not confident at all.
Tonight I've got Sydney Under 39.5pts @ $2.35 1xU
Well I was right about my Roos being on the slide. The Saints are the real deal and it'll be a HUGE game next week against the rampaging Lions.
Good call on the Blues Christo. You did sway me into having a nibble so thanx. Beasty....good call on the Demons who had 2 great quarters to sink my Swans bet.
Let's wait and see the weather tomorrow for the other games.
7 - 10 (-2.58)
Good call on the Blues Christo. You did sway me into having a nibble so thanx. Beasty....good call on the Demons who had 2 great quarters to sink my Swans bet.
Let's wait and see the weather tomorrow for the other games.
7 - 10 (-2.58)
Looks like the roos struggled to find the big sticks yesterday pawa. Thought they may have given the saints a better game. Not overly suprised to see the blues register a win at optus but couldn't convince myself to have a stab at it as you guys did. However, little suprised to see the dees get up in sydney. Good call beasty! Good start to the season and it will be interesting to see whether they unfold like a lawn chair as the season advances. Looking forward to a big anzac effort from my dons today!
Glad to see the dons get by with a win. Thought they may run away with it after the first term but the pies came back hard and made it a game up until the last quarter. Always a big one for us essendon supporters! You guys have obviously seen the saints play a bit so far this season but on an early prediction, do they look to be the real deal?? :shrug:
3-1.5 for the week....+9.21 units now for the season.
Twice in 2 weeks I've been done by a kick on totals!! Might be telling me something! Mind you, the Kanga's kicking obviously didn't help
bomber...In a word, yes!
Twice in 2 weeks I've been done by a kick on totals!! Might be telling me something! Mind you, the Kanga's kicking obviously didn't help
bomber...In a word, yes!
8 - 9 (-0.58)
My four strongest all get home in a multi and all cover the number interestingly enough. No system plays this week but when I cross referenced the numbers I use for it and looked further into the games the four strongest results won and covered. Looking back over the last two weeks using the same method gave an 8-0 winning run and a 7-1 run against the spread. All covered except the Roos with their late goal win over Carlton. Hmmmmm:thinking:
Will have to keep an eye on this. Hopefully onto something new and not just 'the top of a peak'.
MrC.....our teams need someone to come down and show 'em where the big sticks are!! Especially with them playing each other this week in Canberra :tongue
Bomber.....I've been saying it for the last couple of weeks. The Saints are the next big contender!!
My four strongest all get home in a multi and all cover the number interestingly enough. No system plays this week but when I cross referenced the numbers I use for it and looked further into the games the four strongest results won and covered. Looking back over the last two weeks using the same method gave an 8-0 winning run and a 7-1 run against the spread. All covered except the Roos with their late goal win over Carlton. Hmmmmm:thinking:
Will have to keep an eye on this. Hopefully onto something new and not just 'the top of a peak'.
MrC.....our teams need someone to come down and show 'em where the big sticks are!! Especially with them playing each other this week in Canberra :tongue
Bomber.....I've been saying it for the last couple of weeks. The Saints are the next big contender!!
