Yeah, would love to hear your prompts.
Here what I get asked to act as a expert statictian in NFL, probability of a bills cover:
Here’s how incorporating the injury news shifts the probabilities, using the same kind of simple margin model but adjusting the mean spread a bit based on what might be weaker for each side.
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Key Injuries & Their Likely Impact
Here are the relevant injuries for Buffalo and Miami, and how they might move the spread mean a little.
TeamKey Missing / Questionable PlayersLikely Weakness Created
BillsRule Outs: DT Ed Oliver (ankle), LB Matt Milano (pectoral) are out. <br> Questionable: CB Taron Johnson (quad), CB Cam Lewis (shoulder), LB Shaq Thompson (hamstring/hand) Loss of interior pass rush (Oliver), some weakening in pass defense especially if CBs are limited; less linebacker depth. These tend to slightly reduce ability to stop explosive plays and perhaps reduce ability to extend defensive drives. Could allow more big plays or reduce margin.
DolphinsOut: TE Darren Waller (hip), CB Storm Duck (ankle), safety Ifeatu Melifonwu (calf). <br> Questionable: WR Jaylen Waddle (shoulder), LB Chop Robinson (knee), DT Benito Jones (oblique). Loss of offensive options (Waddle might be limited or out), weakening of secondary/edge defenders. Likely some reduction in ability to make explosive cover-plays or convert third downs. Because Buffalo is good at generating offense, this could make Buffalo’s margin larger.
So net, the Bills lose some defensive strength, but the Dolphins seem to be more damaged—especially if Waddle is limited or out, and with secondary issues. That tends to tilt the spread mean upwards (in favor of the Bills) by a small margin.
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Adjusted Mean Spread Estimate
Given the injuries, I’d adjust my assumed mean spread (Bills −X) upward by maybe +1.0 to +1.5 points compared to what uninformed “market mean” might be. If earlier I used means around −11.5 to −12.5, now perhaps:
Low-case: Bills −12.5
Base case: Bills −13.5
Bull case: Bills −14.0
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Re-run Probability of −12.5 Cover with Adjusted Means
Using the same standard deviation (σ ≈ 13.86) and margin model:
Assumed Mean Spread (Bills)P(Bills cover −12.5)
−12.5~ 50.0%
−13.5~ 54.2%
−14.0~ 56.5%
So if the injuries push the mean to −13.5, the Bills covering −12.5 becomes somewhat more favorable (≈54%), and if Buffalo is even stronger, maybe ~56%.
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Final Expert Estimate (with Injuries)
Taking all that into account, my updated expert estimate of the probability that Buffalo covers −12.5 is roughly:
≈ 52-55%
Because while Buffalo is likely stronger and Miami is missing more key pieces, Buffalo also has some defensive vulnerabilities that temper how big their margin can realistically be.
If you want, I can build a more complex model that also accounts for offensive efficiency,
in-game momentum, etc., to get maybe ±1-2% precision.
