Today the yankees play seattle in game one of what has all the making of a great championship series.
Although the m's had to play a tough series with cleveland and were tested, I think the edge in momentum goes to the Yankees. You rarley see a team with a lot of playoff experience getting down after a big loss or celebrating after a big win until they get to the series. However the yankees comeback after losing the first two games at home was huge, and the team did indeed celebrate after the clinching win, and manager Joe Torre called it one of the biggest wins in his career after his first wolrd series. However momentum is not all you need to win a playoff game so let's break down some numbers as well.
Pitching Matchup
Although on paper this may look close I think it is anything but.
*Petitte has always lived for the post season and looks forward to playing in every game he can. He has proven this already this year by stepping up and pitching a great game against the A's, although he got the loss he pitched a solid six innings giving up just one run.
* Sele on the other hand has been miserable in the playoffs and especially against the yankees. He is 0-4 lifetime, and three of those losses came to the yankees. In his start this year against the tribe he was pounded for 4 earned in just two innings pitched.
Total
This could be the best angle in this game today. Both pitchers do not pitch very well in some of the situations they encounter today.
Petitte has not done very well on the road this year(5-7, 4.97) and he also has had his problems with going against the mariners. The yankees are 5-5 when he starts, but more importantly the O/U is 7/3 to include 6/1 in the last seven.
Sele as mentioned before has problems in the playoffs against the yankees, but he has also had struggles in a couple of other situations. Against the yankees period. His team is just 3-7 in his last ten starts, and this includes 1-4 in his last five home starts. (1-2 @ Safeco) Sele also has a problem going down the stretch in the baseball season and it seems to be happening again. In his last ten starts overall the M's are just 4-6, and the Over has come in at 5-1 in his last six starts. In fact in his last three starts he has an average of 8 runs scored against him.
Hitting
As noted in jack's thread, (thanks MJ) both teams hit the opposing pitcher's very well.
Seattle against Petitte:
Suzuki .375
Boone .625 w/ 5 hr's
Martinez .382
NY against Sele:
Jeter .314 w/11 hr's
Justice .346
Knoblauch .311
O'neil .298
bernie .289 w 13 hr's
Final Analysis
Sele has been having a tough time of late and in the playoffs, and although petitte has stepped up in the playoffs he does not look good on the road or vs. Seattle. The bats look very good against the opposing pitchers, and behind the plate is Ed Montague who has a slight edge to the over and averages 9.67 runs per game, which means he will make these guys throw over the plate. With the under being a gold mine early in the playoffs the public is hammering the number lower as I have already seen it at 8 in certain offshore books, but I don't have an account there.
(After all it's not an MJ sponsor) I will wait a bit before pulling the trigger but I will post the number I have now. OVER 8.5 -115
On the side the edge goes to the Yankees tonight, and in the series. With the rocket pitching long enough in game five against the A's it allowed the yankees to set up the rotation the way they would like it.
Also the M's (sele, maybe more than others) may feel they are a bit cursed against the Yankees and i look for them to fall in game one. This line is also rising as we speak, and again I may wait on it, but will post the number i currently have. Yankees +120
Wagerstreet
They introduced interactive wagering this year during the baseball playoffs and although I have stayed away from it, if the game falls a certain way early there could be some value. If the Mariners were to get an early run or two in this contest, backing the yankees at anywhere from +175 to +225 (my guess) could have some great value. Petitte is more poised in the playoffs and so Sele will have an inning when the yanks should touch him up for runs, and the yankees have the better bullpen.
I hope I didn't drag on too much.
JT
Sneaks
Although the m's had to play a tough series with cleveland and were tested, I think the edge in momentum goes to the Yankees. You rarley see a team with a lot of playoff experience getting down after a big loss or celebrating after a big win until they get to the series. However the yankees comeback after losing the first two games at home was huge, and the team did indeed celebrate after the clinching win, and manager Joe Torre called it one of the biggest wins in his career after his first wolrd series. However momentum is not all you need to win a playoff game so let's break down some numbers as well.
Pitching Matchup
Although on paper this may look close I think it is anything but.
*Petitte has always lived for the post season and looks forward to playing in every game he can. He has proven this already this year by stepping up and pitching a great game against the A's, although he got the loss he pitched a solid six innings giving up just one run.
* Sele on the other hand has been miserable in the playoffs and especially against the yankees. He is 0-4 lifetime, and three of those losses came to the yankees. In his start this year against the tribe he was pounded for 4 earned in just two innings pitched.
Total
This could be the best angle in this game today. Both pitchers do not pitch very well in some of the situations they encounter today.
Petitte has not done very well on the road this year(5-7, 4.97) and he also has had his problems with going against the mariners. The yankees are 5-5 when he starts, but more importantly the O/U is 7/3 to include 6/1 in the last seven.
Sele as mentioned before has problems in the playoffs against the yankees, but he has also had struggles in a couple of other situations. Against the yankees period. His team is just 3-7 in his last ten starts, and this includes 1-4 in his last five home starts. (1-2 @ Safeco) Sele also has a problem going down the stretch in the baseball season and it seems to be happening again. In his last ten starts overall the M's are just 4-6, and the Over has come in at 5-1 in his last six starts. In fact in his last three starts he has an average of 8 runs scored against him.
Hitting
As noted in jack's thread, (thanks MJ) both teams hit the opposing pitcher's very well.
Seattle against Petitte:
Suzuki .375
Boone .625 w/ 5 hr's
Martinez .382
NY against Sele:
Jeter .314 w/11 hr's
Justice .346
Knoblauch .311
O'neil .298
bernie .289 w 13 hr's
Final Analysis
Sele has been having a tough time of late and in the playoffs, and although petitte has stepped up in the playoffs he does not look good on the road or vs. Seattle. The bats look very good against the opposing pitchers, and behind the plate is Ed Montague who has a slight edge to the over and averages 9.67 runs per game, which means he will make these guys throw over the plate. With the under being a gold mine early in the playoffs the public is hammering the number lower as I have already seen it at 8 in certain offshore books, but I don't have an account there.
On the side the edge goes to the Yankees tonight, and in the series. With the rocket pitching long enough in game five against the A's it allowed the yankees to set up the rotation the way they would like it.
Also the M's (sele, maybe more than others) may feel they are a bit cursed against the Yankees and i look for them to fall in game one. This line is also rising as we speak, and again I may wait on it, but will post the number i currently have. Yankees +120
Wagerstreet
They introduced interactive wagering this year during the baseball playoffs and although I have stayed away from it, if the game falls a certain way early there could be some value. If the Mariners were to get an early run or two in this contest, backing the yankees at anywhere from +175 to +225 (my guess) could have some great value. Petitte is more poised in the playoffs and so Sele will have an inning when the yanks should touch him up for runs, and the yankees have the better bullpen.
I hope I didn't drag on too much.
JT
