ALDS - Yankees vs Indians

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Game #1 (Wang @ Sabathia)

Indians 55% (+105)+6

over 8.5 61% (-115)+7


Wang is 2-1 with a 3.72 era in 3 career starts vs the Indians, none from '07. He was pounded in his only trip to Jacob's, last year, taking the loss after the Indians hit .440 against him. Wang has been decent lately. I have the Yankees bullpen rated a 71; middle relief is questionable but they have a solid closer in Moe.

Sabathia is a horrible 1-7 with a 7.13 era in his career vs the Yanks, but this season, easily his best yet, he never faced them. He has been solid lately and great at home all season. I have the Indians pen rated a 78; middle relief is solid but not the greatest closer in Borowski.

Yanks 7-day OPS .875 and they were tops in run production over that time.
Indians 7-day OPS only .690 and run production is down.

Yankees were only 4-14 on the road to L (.222) but won their last 2 in that situation.
Indians were 35-19 at home to R (.648).

This is one that I thought would clearly favour the home side, but the Indians offensive production is way down lately and Sabathia's poor work in years past vs the Yankees has to be considered. Still, Yanks were horrible on the road to lefties this season and C.C. might just be a different pitcher than he was when he was getting lit up time and time again by the Pinstipers. Hard to say. Very important game for the Indians as I say they lose the series if they drop this one. Might lose it anyways but I think that the Indians will be pretty desperate to take the opener.

Predicted score: Indians 6 Yankees 5


Plays pending.

GL

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

I'm in the high fidelity first-class travelling set and I think I need a Lear jet.

I'm in the high fidelity first-class travelling set and I think I need a Lear jet.

PLAYOFF RECORD

2-1 +3.08
ML 1-1 +2.58
totals 1-0 +0.5

system sides 2-1
system picks 1-0 (value indicator any+10, +7at60+, +5at65+)

system totals 2-0
total picks 0-0 (65%+)

--------------------------------------------------------

Game #1

PLAYS

Indians +109 0.81/0.89


Jeter and A-Rod are the only current Yankees that have had any real success against C.C. at the plate. Yanks in general are much worse against lefties than righties, and their 4-14 record on the road to L makes this one look worthwhile. As for MVP A-Rod, facing lefties, his batting average is 50 points lower against lefties and his slugging percentage is 150 points lower vs lefties. Wang may end up making me scratch my head in disbelief but the Indians are a very strong home team so I'm expecting them to score anywhere from 4 to 7 runs; they probably need 5 or more to take this one as I expect the Yanks to manage 4 or 5. Should be a good game. I'll like the Indians again in game #2 if they make a good showing of it in game #1 AND we see at least +100 again for the home side. Indians a bit better against lefties and Carmona has been rock-solid lately?for most of the season, really. Let's bring this one in first. Worry about game #2 later. Indians series price is tempting but I think I'll stick to playing the moneylines.

Damn Yankees!

GL

 

[Dr. Fade]

Thanks for the research. I think I may hedge my NY plays w/CLE on the 4.5 inn. line.

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Indians lead series 1-0

Indians lead series 1-0

Game #2

Pettitte @ Carmona

Indians 54% (+118)+8

over/under 9.5 50% (-108)-2 --ump Diaz, if him, is an under-lean, including 26-45 over the past two seasons


Pettitte tossed a good game in his only meeting with the Indians this season, at Jacob's. He's 6-7 with a 4.50 era in 16 career starts vs the Indians. He's 5-3 with 3.72 era in 9 career starts at Jacob's Field. Pettitte wasn't very good over his past 2 starts. He was 7-5 with a 3.95 era on the road this season. Yanks bullpen rated a 71 with a solid closer in Rivera.

Carmona tossed a very good game against the Yankees early in the season at Yankee Stadium, getting a no-decision in an Indians loss, and then was mediocre at home against them on August 10th, taking the loss. Carmona was 10-4 with a 3.32 era at home this season. He has been solid for 5 straight starts and the club has won his past 7 starts overall. Indians bullpen rated a 78 as their middle relief is solid. They have a fairly weak closer in Borowski.

Yanks OPS last 7 days was .946 and they led MLB in runs scored over that time.
Indians OPS last 7 days was only .685 and run production was down.
These numbers don't include the results from game #1.

Pettitte may not be in top form at this late stage of the season so I'm giving an edge to the Indians pitching for this one. A similar edge goes to the Yankees hitting, leaving most of the call simply home-field advantage. If you want to play the Indians then, as usual, wait as long as possible because Yankees money will move the line.


Predicted score: Indians 5 Yankees 4


Plays pending.

GL

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

New car, caviar, four-star daydream...think I'll buy me a football team.

New car, caviar, four-star daydream...think I'll buy me a football team.

PLAYOFF RECORD

4-1 +4.98
ML 3-1 +4.48
totals 1-0 +0.5

system sides 4-2
system picks 2-0 (value indicator any+10, +7at60+, +5at65+)

system totals 3-1
total picks 0-0 (65%+)

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Game #2

PLAYS

Indians +115 0.7/0.8


Thought briefly about trying the under, too, but second reflection revealed that to be unwise as the Indians looked great at the plate on Thursday and are actually stronger against left-handed pitching. Yanks will either be able to handle Carmona or not; first three innings or so should reveal the likely winner; Indians with the better middle relief but the Yanks have the better closer so if we see a pitcher's duel then it's anybody's game. Some value with the Indians but Pettitte has been solid in the playoffs so I'm expecting a little better performance than Wang-Chung gave. Worth a try but not one to pound. Only one I've gone heavy on, so far, was the Bosox in their opener. Still waiting for that next groovy line.

GL

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Indians lead series 2-0

Indians lead series 2-0

Game #3

Westbrook @ Clemens

Yankees 66% (N/A) RL 52 (N/A)

over/under 9.5? or 10? 50% (N/A) --ump Kulpa, if him, is even


Westbrook is 2-4 with a 5.29 era in his career vs the Yankees. Much worse than that, he went 0-2 with a 12.46 era in two meetings with the Yankees this season, including not making it out of the 2nd inning at Yankee Stadium back in April, after the Yanks scored 8 runs off of him. He went 2-4 with a 4.78 era in 11 road starts this season. He's 1-4 with a 7.50 era for his career at Yankee Stadium. Jake has been mediocre lately but at least he's been keeping the walks down, which is a big weapon of the Yankees. Still, Yankees have owned him and are likely to have their best production of the series in this one. Indians middle relief is solid but their closer isn't the greatest in Borowski.

Clemens is 24-8 with a 3.21 era in his career against the Indians, with no meetings yet this season. He went 4-2 with a 3.29 era in 9 home starts this season. Clemens has been decent for the most part lately but has been bothered by a nagging injury. In the pen, the Yanks have Jaba, who should avoid all the bugs in this one, and Rivera, who looked good against the Indians in game #2.

Yanks OPS vs righties is near .850.
Indians OPS vs righties is near .760.
Yanks OPS at home is near .850.
Indians OPS on the road is near .745.

Yanks really need a good game by the Rocket, to get back into this series. I'd say there's about a 60% to 70% chance that we see some gold by Roger. Even without a solid game by the Rocket the Yankees should take this one with ease as they feast on right-handed pitching, especially at home. I'm expecting 6-8 runs by the home side, so the team total might be worthwhile. 3 or 4 runs by the Indians is likely. Makes the over sound promising but a solid game by Roger might keep this one under; this total looks real tough to call, whether it's a 9.5 or 10--higher and the under will look tempting and lower, perhaps a 9, and the over will look alright; think I'll stick with the side and/or maybe the Yanks team total over. Runline looks to be a fairly safe play; moneyline will be way too pricey?probably -160 to -170...maybe higher judging by the Cubs and Rockies lines for games #3. I'll probably be looking to try the runline when it opens.


Predicted score: Yankees 7 Indians 3


Plays pending.

GL

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

I'm alright, Jack. Keep your hands off my stack.

I'm alright, Jack. Keep your hands off my stack.

PLAYOFF RECORD

5-5 +3.29
ML 4-1 +5.28
RL 0-2 -1.1
totals 1-0 +0.5
parlays 0-2 -1.39

system sides 7-3
system picks 2-0 (value indicator any+10, +7at60+, +5at65+)

system totals 3-2
total picks 0-0 (65%+)

-------------------------------------------------------------

Still have these pending:

2-teamer
--Rockies ml (Sat-W)
--Yankees ml (Sun)
+150
1/1.5
+160
0.5/0.8

Adding:

Yankees -1.5 +122 0.81/1


Missed a pair of runline tries yesterday, making me 0-2 in the playoffs. Runlines have hurt me all season, for the most part, but I think that the Yankees will score a bunch today. Like the Yankees team total over 5.5 at +110, but figure that I have enough going as it is. Hoping that this one series survives for another game...Yanks over with Byrd tossing sounds like a better proposition than today's team total; game total over if it's not Wang-Chung throwing. One game at a time. Go-go-gadget Rocket!

GL

 

[jer-z jock]

Xtra, NO NO NO........lets get this series over with today, checking in on ya lately but havent been playing much bases. TODAY, I will though. BOL to you but I beleive this is all but over!!! I'm going for the perfect 3-0 sweep......ROCKS/D BACKS/CLEVELAND. BOL

 

[peteyboy]

Nice call on the score of the game. Pretty close. Nice work though!:00hour

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

thank-you, sir

been close on a couple, but no bang-on's yet

who cares if I'm (we're) winning, right?

no surprises yet in this series, really

only real surprises, so far this postseason, has to be the Cubs getting swept

Philly to take game #1 and two calls on the Cubs are my only 3 baddies, so far, getting the other 9 right.

Enjoying the postseason infinitely more than the final week of the season. That was bad. Much better week for me in the NFL, too, so my wagering spirits are much higher than they were one week ago.

Let's keep it rolling...should be no surprises on this next call--I think that one would have to be crazy to back Byrd in this scenario.

Crazy people gotta win sometimes, too.

Without further ado...

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Indians lead series 2-1

Indians lead series 2-1

Game #4

Byrd @ Wang

Yankees 73% (-192)+7 RL 59 (+105)+10

over 10 61% (+100)+11 --ump Culbreth is even

Yankees over 6? (system number +17; have Indians at 0, meaning the Indians bats may or may not be able to handle Wang)


I'm giving the Yankees a very large edge at the plate for this one. Giving them a smaller edge pitching, but an edge it is.

Indians' Byrd is 1-4 with a 4.44 era in 8 career starts vs the Yankees. In his only meeting with them this season, at home on August 11th, he was quickly disposed of after only 2 innings of work, surrenduring 7 earned runs for a lofty 31.50 era. In 4 career starts at Yankee Stadium he's 0-2 but with a very respectable 3.46 era?somehow?he's given up 6 home runs for his 26 innings of work at the house that Ruth built. At home this season he had some ugly numbers in his era (5.68) and BAA (.328) but those numbers are much better on the road (3.51 and, a still fairly high, .274). The team lost 3 of his last 5 starts while he posted a 6.83 era. He gave up 20 hits and 10 earned runs over his past 2 starts, lasting only 10.2 innings; he took the loss both times. Indians have solid middle relief but have a below-average closer in Borowski.

Yanks' Wang is 2-1, 3.72 vs the Indians during the regular season, with no meetings in '07 until game #1 of these playoffs, where the Indians really took him apart. Even in his 3 prior meetings with the Indians they batted .315 off of him, despite the impressive era. At home Wang has been great, going 10-4 with a sparkling 2.75 era. Looking over his starts from the season; his other starts FOLLOWING A POUNDING (defined herein as allowing 5 or more earnie's OR 4 if 6 innings pitched or less), which occurred 7 times during the regular season?four times he followed those bad starts up with great starts, twice he followed up with a quality start, and only once did he throw crappy games back-to-back (same situation as we have here?that back-to-back crappy was on the road (Jays) followed by a stinker at home (Orioles); two other times he had a bad road start followed by a home game?one time he was rock-solid and the other time he was decent. I'm examining it this way as I'm really trying to get a gauge on what kind of rating to give Wanger for this contest?very difficult to decide?he was brilliant at home pretty much all season and, as mentioned, only one of his 7 crappy '07 starts was followed up by another stinker; still, this time it's against the same team. I have to rate Wang a little lower than I would otherwise due to that game #1 stinker. Wang will be pitching on only 3 days rest, too, something he hasn't done this season, and he did throw 94 pitches in game #1 so I'd be surprised to see him go more than 6 innings. 7 maybe if he keeps the pitch count down but my guess is that a strategy of the Indians hitters will be to work the count in order to get him gone. Yankees bullpen should figure in this game fairly heavily. Yanks middle relief is average. Good set up man in Jaba though he worked 2 innings yesterday (38 pitches) so I don't know about his availability. Rivera looked great in the 9th yesterday and will be ready to shut things down if the opportunity comes again.

Yanks OPS vs R .844, easily tops in MLB (Bosox 2nd at .808), and they've scored more runs than any other team vs righties
Indians OPS vs R .760

Yanks OPS at home .854, exactly 1 point higher than the Rockies and tops in MLB, and they've scored the most runs at home of any team in MLB (42 more runs than the Rockies (9% more) and in less at-bats)
Indians OPS on the road .749

Yanks OPS the past 7 days .946 in 5 games played
Indians OPS the past 7 days .685 in 5 games played

Yanks hit .290 on the season vs R
Indians hit .267 on the season vs R
Yanks hit .301 vs R at home
Indians hit .256 vs R on the road
Yanks hit .276 vs R last 10
Indians hit .266 vs R last 10


I don't find rooting for the Yankees the most enjoyable endeavour, but yesterday's was a big game for me and I certainly appreciate them waking up. Are Steinbrenner's threats having an effect? Hard to say, but the Yankees have to be given credit for coming back like they did, especially with Roger really letting them down (one way to look at it). This is the second postseason game that I've 'capped at over 70%, with the other being game #1 of the Bosox series; that one ended up being a safe runline, though I actually tackled the moneyline; maybe this high call can support a runline play also. I really have nothing good to parlay it with, unless I want to get an early start on next week's football, or maybe even with the Ottawa Senators moneyline for Monday (playing a falling out Devils squad, and the Sens haven't lost yet this season, including their preseason games). Both the moneyline and runline are "system picks", and the first two postseason system picks both came in ('Sox in game #1 and Rockies in game #2). I'd be pretty stunned if the Yankees lose this game. Wang has never been my favorite, but he is a decent pitcher and the numbers that I mentioned earlier?the starts following a pounding?suggest that he might be able to rebound; that 2.75 era at home is pretty kosher, too.

Going to back the Yanks. One of my books is offering the runline at the same price as yesterday, while another one currently has the game off the board. This second book had a +122 runline compared to the +105, so I'm not sure if I should wait until these turkeys finally open their lines or what. Judging by a couple of other places that I've looked, I don't think that I'd get much better than a +110; actually see it at one place at +100 so maybe the +105 that I can get isn't too bad. I'm thinking out loud; this rambling is probably no use to anyone, so I'll leave you with a GO YANKEES!! and be on my way.

Oh yeah?a score prediction?
?kind of think that the Indians looked pretty bad at the plate after the third inning yesterday; they had a great opportunity to capitalize against Hughes but didn't take advantage. Indians still likely scratch and claw their way to 4 or 5 runs on Monday. Yanks came alive against Westbrook. Byrd is, in my opinion, much more hittable than Westbrook. Being up 2 games to 1 will allow the Indians to leave Byrd in there for 5 or 6 even if he's getting hit hard, which I expect. Difficult to call up another 8-spot for the Yankees but I think that 7 or 8 is quite likely. Umpire Culbreth, while deemed "even", has had more unders than overs in 6 of the past 7 years, including 15-19 this season, so I'll go with the lower figures.


Predicted score: Yankees 7 Indians 4


Plays pending.

GL

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Don't give me that do goody-good bullshit

Don't give me that do goody-good bullshit

PLAYOFF RECORD

9-5 +7.89
ML 5-1 +6.08
RL 1-2 -0.1
game totals 1-0 +0.5
team totals 1-0 +0.5
parlays 1-2 +0.91

system sides 9-3
system picks 2-0 (value indicator any+10, +7at60+, +5at65+)

system totals 3-3
total picks 0-0 (65%+)

------------------------------------------------------------------

PLAYS

Yankees -1.5 +105 1.5/1.58


Decided not to wait. Actually got the play moments before they moved it to -105.
Also did end up putting the moneyline on a parlay with the Sens moneyline for Monday, for +140. If they open up Tuesday's NHL lines then I might add more to my Yankees risk with some kind of combo. If I'm up early enough tomorrow(today) then I might even try to find some kind of football game to parlay it with; Yanks look real solid for Monday. If I manage to make it four straight correct calls in this series then I don't know what I'd do for a game #5; Yanks on the road to lefties are pretty pitiful but C.C. didn't look fantastic in the opener and the Yanks will surely have the momentum if it goes the distance; at -110 to -120 I'd be tempted to back the Pinstripers again if it's Pettitte facing Sabathia. One game at a time. Don't make me wait until Thursday for our next BBmatch. Having too much fun.

As for that Thursday game, I haven't 'capped it yet?will do that tomorrow?but I'm expecting a low 50's call for the visitor, meaning there's some value to be had at the current +115ish lines. Wonder which way it will move. I think I'm going to stay on the Rockies bandwagon until they drop one in these playoffs, and I currently have Francis rated as high as I have Webb rated; Rox will get the offensive nod, as well, as the D'Backs have their share of trouble facing lefties; well?they were actually a decent 14-9 at home to L but their batting average and OPS numbers vs L are pretty pathetic. I'll either back the Rockies or pass. As long as it's Francis (one place listing Fogg) then passing is unlikely. One game at a time. Should be a fantastic game on Wednesday if we get one. Did I mention how much fun this i$?

GL

 

[tig3rs]

Game #4

Byrd @ Wang

Yankees 73% (-192)+7 RL 59 (+105)+10

over 10 61% (+100)+11 --ump Culbreth is even

Yankees over 6? (system number +17; have Indians at 0, meaning the Indians bats may or may not be able to handle Wang)
GL

i don't understand this statement... wang pitched in game 1 and gave up 8ER.

???

 

[jer-z jock]

I got what I deserved lastnight!! Great job as usuall.
Wang on 3 days rest today......BOL as the BASES ARE DONE FOR ME!!!!