Our record has not been too good .Today all picks were 27-9 with 3 rainouts.With 23 different selections.Out of 39 picks , we shouldn't have 23 different sides or totals..The idea of the consensus is to pick a WINNER.Not to pick a team because of value.It doesn't matter what the payoff is if it doesn't win. I think some people are letting the lines influence their pick.It seems some are trying to pick the upset.They are afraid to take the chalk.8 out of 10 winners at 2-1 odds nets you 4 units.On the other hand 2 out of 10 dogs nets you -4.4 units.Even if you hit 7 out of 10 at 2-1 odds you still win 1 unit.Hit 3 out of 10 dogs at 2-1 you LOSE 1.6 units.I'm not saying to pick favs all the time but to pick the winner no matter what the line is.Thats the idea of the consensus .To pick WINNERS not the best value.
All consensus posters please read
- Thread starter Pgh Kid
- Start date
I could be wrong but I thought we were suppose to pick our BEST play of the day. If Randy Johnson is pitching at -270 we don't need to take a survey to see which game most people will think will win. That may or may not be the best play of the day. A hot team, wit a hot pitcher might be going off at -135 which would be the better play.
I would like to see others opinions on this.
Thanks for picking up the ball today PGH.
I would like to see others opinions on this.
Thanks for picking up the ball today PGH.
AGREE
AGREE
I thought the consensus was YOUR best bet for the day.
I don't lay wood over -165 just rule I use myself.
I try to find value in games
I play 1 unit per game $100.00
PLay a -270 to win 100 is not me sure the chances are It will hit
if it looses that almost three plays to make up.
Just my thoughts
AGREE
I thought the consensus was YOUR best bet for the day.
I don't lay wood over -165 just rule I use myself.
I try to find value in games
I play 1 unit per game $100.00
PLay a -270 to win 100 is not me sure the chances are It will hit
if it looses that almost three plays to make up.
Just my thoughts
You have to get paid correctly if you want to come out on top. If I go to the track and like 3 horses and expect 3-1 or 4-1 on each of them and they all are 3-2, I'm going to lose in the long run because the paybacks are insufficient when you win. People that are always on chalk tend to focus primarily on the short-term; the long term should be the only thing that matters. We really are nothing more than a stock market; instead on companies, the outcome is determined by sporting events. Think more in terms of value, and less as a sports fan.
I think the Kid is referring directly to my POD play,as an example. Where as i should have put Oakland(213)in the POD thread instead of my smaller longshot play of BoSox -1.5 +200.
I'll be sure to put in my strongest play next time. Instead of trying to look fancy and screwing up the thread.
I'll be sure to put in my strongest play next time. Instead of trying to look fancy and screwing up the thread.
It's definately all about winning. That being said, I personally HATE (usually) to lay major chalk like -200 and above. But on the flip side, I almost NEVER see a dog play that I feel is the BEST single play for that particular day. Some are definately worthy of bet consideration but 99% of the time with me it's going to end up being a fave simply because I like my chances of winning better. And since I'm on the subject, my POD for today would be Boston -175. Pedro has completely DOMINANTED the Mariners (never lost to them) in his career with a ridiculous career ERA of barely over 1, I believe it is. He may not be the same Pedro as before, but I think he's good enough to Lead the Sox to the victory as Baldwin has been throwing a lot of batting practice-type fastballs lately. Good luck all.
Night Owl
Night Owl
I respect everyones method of chosing games, and I certainly realize that it is very unpopular to play heavy favorites. I read an article that aquaits that in a large part to the Handicappers mentality. You see, cappers like to believe that we know how to find the "diamond in the rough" the jewel of a game that we believe vegas has a bad line on. Anyone can pick Randy Johnson -270. Theres no capping in that. So in an effort to "prove" our true handicapping skills, we stear clear of those games.
I hear a lot of peolpe saying "I never take a game over -XXX (insert your line here)"
Well, I don't get that. Taking a game at -120, or +130 and the outcome really being chance, is not a way I like to try to make money. Give me a -200, and 80% chance of winning anyday.
That said, I'm in this to win money, and if that mean taking the big fav, so be it.
The key for me is to stay away from the inconsistant teams. I would never take St. Louis -190, or Texas -170! They are just too up and down.
I focus on the top teams...Boston, Yanks, Seattle, Az, SF, etc.., I look for situations like Winning the series, or after a loss, home after being away, etc...
I'll take them straight up, and in 2 team parlays. Two heavy favs parlayed bring them to even money, or better.
I am doing VERY good so far this MLB season. I'm not trying to brag, I just want to show the other side and maybe someone can see that there is value in betting heavy favs.
Hope everyone kills the man!
I hear a lot of peolpe saying "I never take a game over -XXX (insert your line here)"
Well, I don't get that. Taking a game at -120, or +130 and the outcome really being chance, is not a way I like to try to make money. Give me a -200, and 80% chance of winning anyday.
That said, I'm in this to win money, and if that mean taking the big fav, so be it.
The key for me is to stay away from the inconsistant teams. I would never take St. Louis -190, or Texas -170! They are just too up and down.
I focus on the top teams...Boston, Yanks, Seattle, Az, SF, etc.., I look for situations like Winning the series, or after a loss, home after being away, etc...
I'll take them straight up, and in 2 team parlays. Two heavy favs parlayed bring them to even money, or better.
I am doing VERY good so far this MLB season. I'm not trying to brag, I just want to show the other side and maybe someone can see that there is value in betting heavy favs.
Hope everyone kills the man!
