All-Star Break Look Back - Let me hear your opinions

[CherryPicker]

Always was a small player untill the last couple of months, today was the first day I didn't bet on a game since the beginning of May and I took some time to look at the history on my two account with the local. I value the opinion of everyone on this site and want to hear what you guys think, it looks like I basically broke even (up +1,041) over the past two months and thinking about it all that betting really took a lot of time and gave me a lot of stress. I bascially made all my winnings in only the last two weeks, on two big parlays to be honest with you. So do you guys think I should try and go back to playing small or just try and walk away all together? I am leaning to the latter but it is easier said than done. Take a look at my history and please give me your honest opinion.

Balance History

Weeks
Jul, 03 -480
Jun, 26 10,234
Jun, 19 -480
Jun, 12 -480
Jun, 05 -370

Balance History

Weeks
Jul, 03 11,421
Jun, 26 -3,500
Jun, 19 -3,500
Jun, 12 -6,000
Jun, 05 2,355
May, 29 -6,500
May, 22 1,439
May, 15 -1,078
May, 08 -2,500

 

[Wise and Wiser]

CP, I feel ya brother! I was up more than $16,000 at one point, and now my overall balance stands at -$839. I don't know about you, but I'm going to make some adjustments. It's not wise, no pun intended, to fall into a trap of betting the same way night in and night out. In retrospect, that was my downfall. My system started to go the other way, and I was too stubborn to adjust. I had too much faith that it would boom again. Now, I have lost all confidence in it, so I'm switching to a different system I have used in the past with much success. What was your goal at the beginning of the season? Was your goal to break even? If so, walk away now. If not, keep plugging away until you meet it, or set a new goal during the break. Once you meet the new goal, then walk away. I would hate to see you leave, because I feel we have developed a friendship over the past several months, but if you choose to go in that direction, I support your decision and wish you nothing but the best. Good luck bro!

 

[CherryPicker]

Thanks for responding Wise. My goal was to win enough to buy this watch I have been looking at, which is priced at about half of what I am collecting from last week. So I think what I am gonna do is buy the watch and then just do straight bets for nickels with a max of 2-3 plays per day. I used to play a ton of 4-8 teamers and as you can see I lost a lot of money doing that. With my pars I always had mostly winners in them and would build off of 2-3 solid plays and then pick other games I was not confident about which usually lost but I used them to just increase the payout on the pars. To keep myself honest I am going to start posting all my plays again and keep a record in the second half to see how this works. I don't want to go either, and yes we have developed a good freindship thru this site. I think we can turn it around and have a profitable season, there are a lot of good cappers here (you included) and I have a feeling that everyone here is going to do real well in the second half. Good Luck and see you soon!

 

[yak merchant]

I'm not going to recommend whether you quit or not, and I'm not going to recommend how much you play. But I will say unless you are 100% sure your system makes money over the long run (like multiple years), and you have a big bankroll, I'd definitely avoid the parlays and play the games you like straight, and avoid the action plays. Unlike alot of people who say it can't be done, I will say you can make money playing parlays. But 99.9% of people shouldn't be playing any type of parlays let alone 4 and 8 teamers. Alot of good handicappers with a positive win percentage have been cash flowed out of the game playing parlays because they didn't do the math on the likely hood of bad runs, bet too much of their bankroll on each play, and added hunches and action bets in the tickets to make the payoffs bigger. And if you aren't a good enough handicapper to be profitable in the first place, all the parlays are going to do is go through your bankroll at a rate so fast, you won't be able to figure out your system isn't profitable before it's too late. So unless you are god's gift to handicapping you aren't going to get rich quick betting sports. The temptation of the get rich quick parlay usually take a profitable handicapper and makes him a loser. Good luck whatever you do.

 

[IntenseOperator]

got buried the 1st half

2nd half I wouldn't be fading me. I'm never around every day but I've found a few things that I'm finally having some success with. Seems many that rocked early on aren't now while I've been on an opposite run.

Hoping to collect a little each week after the break.

GL All

 

[yak merchant]

Oh and shop lines, and join an exchange. If you bet $500 a play on 3 plays a day for the rest of the season, you'll be wagering a total of approximately $100K between now and the end of the season. If you can save on average 3 cents per play that's 3 grand by the end of the year.

 

[CherryPicker]

yak something like Mansion or Matchbook?

 

[ScreaminPain]

I hear ya' 'picker. I'm currently attempting to evaluate my 2nd half stategy also.

I'm up 8.4 units to this point, and I play very conservatively. I seldom play parlays (4 in the 1st half, 2-2) and I'm wondering if this is worth my time. It takes me around 4-6 hours to cap the whole card for baseball, and that's with a few shortcuts that have helped. That's a lot of time per week ! I have the time to spend, but I'm wondering if I should use it more wisely or up my unit amount (?).

I have to admit, I enjoy the action.....but at what expense timewise.......

 

[Its Gravy]

i would stick to 2-3 plays per day maximum.
and grade each play on a 1*-3* play, no more than that...
it helps to find a Pinnacle fade gem, like a huge line drop right b4 gametime, but that doesnt occur often...
GLTA
last 2 weeks havent been able to pick my ass and I was up 65 units so far....until 2 weeks ago.... fock !!

Got creamed when
LAA swept Seattle
and when...Cubs swept Milwaukee

 

[yak merchant]

Yes Mansion or Matchbook. Right now Mansion is better, as there is no commission if you take somebody elses line. And only 1% commission if your offer get's taken. But even with Matchbook's 2% commission you can beat pinnacle alot of the time.

 

[BadAngel]

CP, I do alot of things different betting. On my pars I do a 2 Team, to protect my par money. Those are my best 2 teams. Add 1 team to that for a 3 teamer. Add 1 to that for a 4 teamer. Say I bet
2 team 150
3 team 100
4 team 100
If the first one wins (2 teamer) I don't lose anything for the day. If I keep winning look out. The next day Double the bets
2 Team 300 and so on

On my flats Maybe I start out with a nickel on 4 games. If i go 3-1 or 4-0 I go to 700. Find a number you want to stay on. I like 7. IF I start losing go back down. I never chase at the same amount. 7 down to 5 down to 4 and usually stay there till I turn it around. The last couple of years I have done great. I used to put my winnings up last year. If you go back and look at my baseball and football last year my numbers and records are there. I quit doing it after foots. I had my best Football season last year. Bases I hit my season goals by the all star break last year and this year. Now this year I just have to hold on to it :mj07: :mj07: I try never to chase or change my way of doing things. This is a grind. So I just keep trying to grind it out. It has been working for me.

Good luck whatever you do buddy.

Try stating with 700, If you win say 700, now you have 14. If you build that up to 2400, take out you 700 and play with what you are up. About 17. see what you can build.