A "trap bet" is a wager that seems appealing on the surface but is set by oddsmakers to trick bettors into backing the less valuable side. For Week 6 in the NFL and Week 7 in college football, bettors and analysts have identified several matchups that fit this description.
College football: Week 7
Ohio State (-14.5) at Illinois
This is widely cited as the biggest trap bet of the weekend, with some experts calling it "the most trap line of all time".
The apparent logic: Ohio State is a top-ranked powerhouse, while Illinois is a rebuilding program. Many will be tempted to bet on the Buckeyes to cover a reasonable-looking two-touchdown spread.
The trap: Betting experts believe the line is set high to entice a flood of public money on Ohio State. Despite a recent win, Illinois is a limited team, but Ohio State's defense has some vulnerabilities that a team can exploit. The implied wisdom is to avoid backing such a publicly popular play.
Michigan at USC (-2.5)
This matchup features a seemingly undervalued unranked USC team as a short home favorite against a top-15 ranked Michigan team.
The apparent logic: With Michigan ranked much higher, many casual bettors will see the Wolverines getting points as a steal.
The trap: The betting market is pricing USC as a favorite for a reason, backed by strong statistical models like FPI and SP+, which see value in the Trojans. Despite popular opinion on Michigan, the smart money is moving on USC.
Alabama at Missouri (+3)
Alabama, a perennial powerhouse that has recovered from an early loss, is only a small favorite on the road against Missouri.
The apparent logic: With Alabama returning to form after a dominant stretch, many will bet on them to cover a small spread against a Missouri team with a weak schedule.
The trap: Missouri has been at home for six straight games and had a bye week to prepare for the Crimson Tide. They have a strong rushing attack, and head coach Eli Drinkwitz has a strong record against the spread as a home underdog.
NFL: Week 6
Colts (-7) vs. Cardinals
This matchup has seen some of the heaviest public betting of the weekend, with a large majority of money and bets on Indianapolis.
The apparent logic: The Colts are home favorites against a struggling Cardinals team.
The trap: According to betting analysts, historically, following the "auto-fade" strategy of betting against the most public games has been reliable. With so much public money on the Colts, the market might be misaligned, making the Cardinals a potential trap for those following the masses.
Chiefs (-2) vs. Lions
This is a classic "Sharp vs. Square" battle, where most public bettors are on one side, while the professional money is on the other.
The apparent logic: The Lions have been performing well and are getting points against a strong Chiefs team. Public bettors see this as a high-value pick.
The trap: Despite the popular sentiment, the line on this game has not moved much, which is a telltale sign that sharp bettors are backing Kansas City. The Chiefs have a strong historical record in this situation, and the Lions have injuries to several key players.
Key characteristics of a trap bet
The "too good to be true" line: The odds look surprisingly favorable for a public-favorite team, tempting many to bet on them.
Public vs. professional money split: The vast majority of bets are on one side (the public), but the line remains steady or moves in the opposite direction, indicating large professional bets on the other side.
Inflated spreads for popular teams: A well-known powerhouse is given a large spread against an underdog, which appears to be an easy cover but often is not.
Narrative vs. reality: The betting public may get swayed by a team's narrative (e.g., a big upset win, a coaching change), but the underlying statistics or matchups suggest a different outcome.
College football: Week 7
Ohio State (-14.5) at Illinois
This is widely cited as the biggest trap bet of the weekend, with some experts calling it "the most trap line of all time".
The apparent logic: Ohio State is a top-ranked powerhouse, while Illinois is a rebuilding program. Many will be tempted to bet on the Buckeyes to cover a reasonable-looking two-touchdown spread.
The trap: Betting experts believe the line is set high to entice a flood of public money on Ohio State. Despite a recent win, Illinois is a limited team, but Ohio State's defense has some vulnerabilities that a team can exploit. The implied wisdom is to avoid backing such a publicly popular play.
Michigan at USC (-2.5)
This matchup features a seemingly undervalued unranked USC team as a short home favorite against a top-15 ranked Michigan team.
The apparent logic: With Michigan ranked much higher, many casual bettors will see the Wolverines getting points as a steal.
The trap: The betting market is pricing USC as a favorite for a reason, backed by strong statistical models like FPI and SP+, which see value in the Trojans. Despite popular opinion on Michigan, the smart money is moving on USC.
Alabama at Missouri (+3)
Alabama, a perennial powerhouse that has recovered from an early loss, is only a small favorite on the road against Missouri.
The apparent logic: With Alabama returning to form after a dominant stretch, many will bet on them to cover a small spread against a Missouri team with a weak schedule.
The trap: Missouri has been at home for six straight games and had a bye week to prepare for the Crimson Tide. They have a strong rushing attack, and head coach Eli Drinkwitz has a strong record against the spread as a home underdog.
NFL: Week 6
Colts (-7) vs. Cardinals
This matchup has seen some of the heaviest public betting of the weekend, with a large majority of money and bets on Indianapolis.
The apparent logic: The Colts are home favorites against a struggling Cardinals team.
The trap: According to betting analysts, historically, following the "auto-fade" strategy of betting against the most public games has been reliable. With so much public money on the Colts, the market might be misaligned, making the Cardinals a potential trap for those following the masses.
Chiefs (-2) vs. Lions
This is a classic "Sharp vs. Square" battle, where most public bettors are on one side, while the professional money is on the other.
The apparent logic: The Lions have been performing well and are getting points against a strong Chiefs team. Public bettors see this as a high-value pick.
The trap: Despite the popular sentiment, the line on this game has not moved much, which is a telltale sign that sharp bettors are backing Kansas City. The Chiefs have a strong historical record in this situation, and the Lions have injuries to several key players.
Key characteristics of a trap bet
The "too good to be true" line: The odds look surprisingly favorable for a public-favorite team, tempting many to bet on them.
Public vs. professional money split: The vast majority of bets are on one side (the public), but the line remains steady or moves in the opposite direction, indicating large professional bets on the other side.
Inflated spreads for popular teams: A well-known powerhouse is given a large spread against an underdog, which appears to be an easy cover but often is not.
Narrative vs. reality: The betting public may get swayed by a team's narrative (e.g., a big upset win, a coaching change), but the underlying statistics or matchups suggest a different outcome.
