And the winner of the Derby is.....

[Mully]

Are you kidding me? 20 to choose from and just when you throw one out, you find a reason why that horse could win. Tough field as always for the Derby, but when making your selections remember these 3 things.....

Horses who did not have any starts as a Juvenile, Did not run in an April prep, or have had less than 3 starts during the current campaign, almost NEVER win the Kentucky Derby. So throw out Curlin, Imawildand crazyguy, Street Sense, Hard Spun, Scat Daddy, Circular Quay, Stormello, Dominican, and Great Hunter...

That leaves Sedgefield, Zanjero, Storm in May, Cowton Cat, Liquidity, Teuflesberg, Bwana Bull, Nobiz Like Shobiz, Sam P, Tiago, and Any Given Satruday.

From what is left, I really like the chances of three horses....

Zanjero- Love the breeding with blood from A.P Indy. One thing that really stands out to me is that this one gets better with each start. Speed figures have gone up every time this one takes the track and I expect a BIG effort today. All the talk is about Curlin, but have a feeling the other Asmussen horse will be the one we are talking about after the race.STALKER!

Tiago- Remember 2005? Same connections with Shirreffs and Smith. This is another one who gets better with each and every start and think the best is yet to come.

Nobiz Like Shobiz- Speed and more speed! I expect this one to be on or near the lead every step of the way. Has yet to have a clunker and really like a horse the jockey has mounted each and every start.

Hardspun- Bred for the distance and the wet track. Another one who figures to on or near the lead. Will be suprised if this one stays near 15-1.*Late addition

I will play 5 Horses in an exacta box...

Zanjero
Tiago
Nobiz Like Shobiz
Sam P
Hard Spun

I will also play my top 4 selections across the board.

Note: The Derby always pays out. With so much money in every pool, It's a great day to cash. I plan on putting down a nice chunk of change on Zanjero to Show.

Good Luck Everyone and Don't drink too many Mint Juleps!!

 

[Penguinfan]

My concern with Zanjero is his best speed ratings are still less than par compared to the average numbers the other top contenders put up.

 

[Islington]

I like your reasoning, & will definitely use Tiago & Nobiz, also something on Zanjero

- wet weather could also play a part with the track
condition

 

[bases]

but

but

who do you thinks wins the derby

thanks

 

[Mully]

who do you thinks wins the derby

thanks

I really think it will be one of the three mentioned in my original post...So hard in a race like this to bet only one horse. Watch the races leading up to the derby. If speed is holding up I would say Nobiz. If the front runners are getting eatin up, look out for Zanjero &Tiago. You have to realize this is just another horse race. ( in the biggest spot light of course) People that don't know a thing about racing throw their hard earned money down on this event. It's truly a great money making day if you get lucky enough to cash a winning ticket since their is so much money in the pools. My advice is to throw small amounts of money on several horses or combinations. No matter how well you handicap this race it will all come down to RACING LUCK. I do feel Zanjero has the most value and is being overlooked. If you put a gun to my head and made me choose just one, I would have to say Nobiz Like Shobiz Remember, bet with your head, not over it!

 

[Mully]

My concern with Zanjero is his best speed ratings are still less than par compared to the average numbers the other top contenders put up.

Speed figures will vary depending on the track and conditions. Only 7 horses in this field have gone faster than Zanjero's 110 in the Bluegrass. The most impressive thing to me is the fact that we haven't seen the best from this one yet. Many contenders look flashy on paper, but for all we know have peeked already. You give me 30-1 morning line on a horse that only gets better with each and every start, and I will take my chances. That being said, this one could finish dead last. This is the Derby ya know!

Good Luck with your tickets...

 

[Penguinfan]

Good luck to you as well Mully.

 

[jharris]

Playing Nobiz Like Shobiz acroos the board today. I missed out on going to the Derby this year so will be watching on TV. Also putting a flyer on Cowtown Cat as my longshot. Good luck everyone!

 

[bert07]

thanks for all the hard work Mully
GL