Another big one for Thursday

[OnaJ]

5 Big Plays posted since I've been here

5 Big Wins to build the bankroll and 4 have been dogs

Here is what I think is worthy of a big wager on Thursday,

Cleveland Indians
+140
to beat Boston Red Sox

You have to be kidding me. The hottest pitcher in the American League is a 140 home dog to Pedro? There is so much value in this play. The Indians are scoring runs and Sabathia has only let up 16 hits in 28 innings this season. The bullpen has blown a handful of Sabathia quality starts. I think everyone knows that is the Ind. weakness, but there is no way Indians Mgr. Wedge will pull Sabathia unless his pitch count gets too high. He will give him every chance to win this big game himself. Martinez is not himself this year and Sabathia is a Top 5 starter in the A.L. This line is all about the public name of Pedro Martinez. This game should be Pedro -115 or -120 at most and even that is pushing it. Grab the Indians. This line SHOULD be comparable to how Pedro lays very low chalk to Halladay when he pitches in Toronto. Sabathia is in the same kind of situation. Weaker team but dominant pitcher capable of winning it on his own.

 

[OnaJ]

sMALL

Tampa Bay
+168
to beat Anaheim


Anaheim should have kept Aaron Sele in the bullpen. His days as a starting pitcher are over, which is why he went to the pen in the first place. The Rays could catch the Angels napping after their sweep of Detroit. This is way way way too high of a price for Sele to lay to one of the Rays top starters. This will be a good west coast dog

 

[RexBudler]

watch out for Sele tonight.....He is healthier than he has been in years and pitched a dandy last time out....IMO he has some renewed confidence and his arm and shoulder are strong......Ortiz is gone to the bullpen where he belongs.....I am looking for Sele to regain some of his old form......just my opinion....he may very well get lit up but I am hoping he is somewhat back to form....good luck to ya and nice job so far

 

[OnaJ]

Rex we'll have to agree to disagree. I think Sele's best days are behind him altogether. He was tough as nails when he was "on" when he was with Seattle. I don't think he is the same pitcher anymore. His curveball doesn't seem to be so dominant anymore. We will see though, Best of luck rex with your plays

 

[LET'S EAT!!!]

sMALL

Tampa Bay
+168
to beat Anaheim


Anaheim should have kept Aaron Sele in the bullpen. His days as a starting pitcher are over, which is why he went to the pen in the first place. The Rays could catch the Angels napping after their sweep of Detroit. This is way way way too high of a price for Sele to lay to one of the Rays top starters. This will be a good west coast dog

:nono: :nono: dont know about you,but i think anaheim ought to just go ahead and keep doing what they're doing....what do you think?....this is in response to your "anaheim should have kept sele in the pen" comment...he looked pretty decent tonight...2 solid starts in a row in which the angels won both games and he pitched 11 innings giving up 3 runs...albeit against a horrible offense tonight in tampa bay...just saying the guy has looked solid giving up only 4 runs in his last 18 innings pitched....oh and it kind of helps when ur team puts up 6 + runs a night

 

[LET'S EAT!!!]

watch out for Sele tonight.....He is healthier than he has been in years and pitched a dandy last time out....IMO he has some renewed confidence and his arm and shoulder are strong......Ortiz is gone to the bullpen where he belongs.....I am looking for Sele to regain some of his old form......just my opinion....he may very well get lit up but I am hoping he is somewhat back to form....good luck to ya and nice job so far

ditto..........:tongue

 

[OnaJ]

I still think they should leave Sele in the pen. He worked around trouble the whole game today. Truthfully, both starting pitchers were awful. Neither pitcher had anything working but Anaheim took more advantage of their opportunties. He is a shell of his former self and he doesn't have that out pitch anymore. If Sele survives past July I would be very surprised (in rotation). Nice job to the Halos tonight though, knew my streak would end some time. Will start another one tomorrow

 

[LET'S EAT!!!]

well we respectfully agree to disagree....i admit that sele does have some vulnerabilities but he has done well in the last 5 games he's pitched in and he has shown some consistency...he's gotten in a few jams but he's pitched out of them, which to me says alot....dont know about ur july 1 prediction though...with the way the angels hit the piss out of the ball and score so many runs it can easily cover up mistakes made by sele with that kind of run support....anyway, great attitude u have about starting a new streak tomorrow....like that kind of confidence...good luck on starting a new streak....just one little piece of advice if i may...dont try and start it against the halos...they score too much

 

[OnaJ]

Let's Eat just for the sake of the debate, I meant July 31st. You do bring up a very good point though that with the Angels scoring a lot of runs, that can cover up some pitching weaknesses. Good Luck to your Halos. I think they will be in the hunt in August but I am being 100% serious when I say that Texas could remain a major player in the AL West because if they sense a chance to compete, Hart will pull off a deal for a bona fide pitcher or two. Oakland and Seattle just don't score enough to win right now. People can say that pitching wins in the end but you have to have SOME offense and Oak and Sea have none. Best of Luck tomorrow!

 

[CHARLESMANSON]

Onaj no offense but either you're smoking some wild crap over there or you just plain don't know what you're talking about.

I took the Halos because I LOVED Sele today

Sele had surgery, and last year was his recovery year.....that's why he spent time in the pen, not because he sucked... (getting the strikezone back, with the repaired body parts, working out the kinks) Now he's back this year, it's a new season and so far he's pitched superb.

With the crappy starts that Ortiz has given them this year, there's no way you send Sele to the pen. Put wild-ass Ortiz in there for god sake. Maybe he can go in there and take a valium and sing songs for the rest of the Halo bullpen who knows.....

Sele looked good tonight with a DEVISTATING breaking pitch, the ability to pitch out of jams, and had very nice velocity on the fast ball. Hit 93-94 couple times I think. Respect the Halos my son, they're deadly.

:nono:

 

[IE]

going into tonight texas had the 2nd best starting staff behind the cubs....why do you think a drastic $$$ change?

Team Totals (teams ranked by SNW-SNL):
Team SNW SNL SNPct. E(W) W L RA AdjRA SNVA
-----------------------------------------------------------------
CHC 12.1 7.2 .626 11.7 12 8 3.51 3.72 2.2
TEX 11.8 7.4 .616 11.6 13 7 4.38 3.74 2.2
NYM 10.8 7.2 .600 10.2 10 10 3.83 3.96 1.6
BOS 10.9 7.9 .581 10.8 12 7 4.38 4.19 1.3
CLE 9.8 7.8 .557 9.5 8 6 4.34 4.43 0.9
HOU 10.2 8.2 .554 10.0 14 7 4.45 4.30 1.0
OAK 10.4 8.8 .542 10.4 9 9 4.60 4.54 0.5
FLA 10.7 9.2 .537 10.6 12 5 4.26 4.51 0.6
MON 9.8 8.7 .530 9.4 7 13 4.31 3.80 0.5
SDP 9.9 9.2 .516 9.7 11 8 4.03 4.45 0.2
ARI 9.1 8.7 .511 9.0 8 8 4.99 4.33 0.2
SEA 9.6 9.9 .490 9.3 4 11 5.05 5.08 -0.3
MIN 8.4 9.0 .483 7.7 9 5 4.93 4.89 -0.2
NYY 9.0 9.8 .479 8.8 11 9 5.23 5.11 -0.4
ATL 8.7 9.6 .477 8.6 7 11 5.45 5.39 -0.5
PIT 8.4 9.4 .473 8.3 8 12 5.54 5.33 -0.6
PHI 7.8 9.0 .465 7.5 7 9 4.48 4.87 -0.6
TAM 8.0 9.5 .458 7.8 7 13 5.55 5.56 -0.7
CHW 8.9 10.4 .460 8.6 10 8 5.41 5.40 -0.7
STL 9.2 11.0 .457 9.1 8 11 4.77 5.13 -0.8
MIL 7.8 10.1 .436 7.5 8 9 5.30 5.40 -1.1
TOR 8.4 11.1 .431 8.2 6 11 5.44 5.35 -1.3
BAL 7.1 10.0 .415 6.7 6 6 5.79 5.91 -1.3
ANA 8.0 11.0 .420 7.9 13 10 5.81 6.13 -1.5
CIN 7.2 10.9 .400 7.0 9 7 5.47 5.73 -1.9
LAD 7.1 11.0 .392 7.0 11 10 5.21 5.59 -1.9
COL 6.9 12.0 .365 6.8 9 12 7.85 6.81 -2.5
KCR 6.3 11.4 .355 5.6 2 12 7.29 6.07 -2.4
DET 6.9 12.1 .362 6.6 9 12 6.44 6.70 -2.4
SFG 6.1 13.5 .312 5.7 7 11 6.68 7.00 -3.5
-----------------------------------------------------------------
ML 265.4 291.1 .477 258.0 267 277 5.12 5.12 -13.5


Teixeira is coming back now...re-shapes lineup order on the road
blalock healthy...??

need more and more run producers and more setup men for dollars value.....hitters--if in race--thomas?beltran?--pitchers--benson?(with switch for park--release)..thats where $ will go if desired...need more runs expecations

 

[OnaJ]

Charles Manson, I've come to realize that California baseball has a very senstitive fan base. If you say anything bad about Anaheim or Oakland the fans get offended. I call it like I see it, Sele's best days are behind him.

IE, eventually players and pitchers will start regressing to their mean and will level out. Texas is loaded on offense but is very shaky with the pitching. I know they are pitching well now but it's early. If thaat holds up by the All Star break I would be surprised. Texas has no true #1 starter because of Park's inconsistency, I am really pulling for them to stay hot but it will require a pitching trade.

 

[RexBudler]

Charles Manson, I've come to realize that California baseball has a very senstitive fan base. If you say anything bad about Anaheim or Oakland the fans get offended. I call it like I see it, Sele's best days are behind him.

LOL....Actually I dont mind anyone talking crap about my Angels as long as they are telling it like it is....but I dont think anyone said Seles best days are ahead of him...hell....he had more wins then Pedro and Clemens from 98-01.....I dont think in any way he will ever get back to that form...thats a fact.....I was just trying to say this is the strongest and healthiest he has been in 3-4 years and he has some confidence so dont bet a game soley on the fact of going against Sele cuz I think he can give them many quality starts......anyways....its just opinions and yes we may be a bit biased but we all know his best days are behind him...but he looks alot better than the last 3 years as of right now and I think thats the point we were trying to make....anyways...good luck to you and nice job so far

 

[mjalam]

um, you could tell me that oakland couldn't score for shit...besides the last series


and i'd agree...at the end of it all, its just a baseball team

 

[OnaJ]

Rex my main point is that at this point in his career, Aaron Sele is not worth a 9/5 risk what so ever. Even against Tampa Bay. I didn't mean to imply that you thought Sele was dominant still so I am sorry. If Sele is that high of a chalk next time, yes I will probably be going against him because he simply isn't worth it. You can't tell me Sele is worth laying double your money to win a baseball game. It's all about risk and reward. At this point he isn't worth such a high risk that's all./ Hope to have more Angels and MLB discussions with you in future threads! I enjoy your posts.

 

[RexBudler]

Rex my main point is that at this point in his career, Aaron Sele is not worth a 9/5 risk what so ever. Even against Tampa Bay. I didn't mean to imply that you thought Sele was dominant still so I am sorry. If Sele is that high of a chalk next time, yes I will probably be going against him because he simply isn't worth it. You can't tell me Sele is worth laying double your money to win a baseball game. It's all about risk and reward. At this point he isn't worth such a high risk that's all./ Hope to have more Angels and MLB discussions with you in future threads! I enjoy your posts.

you are right there buddy...Sele at -200 is not a sound investment, thats for sure......