Another Day on the Diamond another Weds parlay (or two)

[Terryray]

1:05 PM MLB [902] TOTAL u7.5 -115 (CHI CUBS vrs PHI PHILLIES) ( J LACKEY -R / V VELASQUEZ -R )
3:40 PM MLB [904] TOTAL u6.5 -115 (ATL BRAVES vrs SDG PADRES) ( J TEHERAN -R / D POMERANZ -L )
1:10 PM MLB [912] DET TIGERS -134 ( R DICKEY -R / J ZIMMERMANN -R )
3:40 PM MLB [922] TOTAL u8.5 -110 (TB RAYS vrs ARI DBACKS) ( J ODORIZZI -R / A BRADLEY -R )

1 unit bet pays 10.65 ....betdsi line .. evening parlay later (Cavs Q1, Mets, Yanks, Tx?, STL?)

MLB parlays: 8-61, +3.04 units units (risk 1 unit each pick)... winner #1 posted here......winner #2 posted here....winner #3 and nice winner #4... and small reduced winner #5, winner #6 paid 5.07 units...winner #7...and here is winner #8

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ripped, cut and pasted, otherwise written by others, from across the internets:

The Pirates will call up Taillon, the No. 2 overall pick in the 2010 Draft, from Triple-A Indianapolis on Wednesday to start their series finale against the Mets at 7:05 p.m. ET. Taillon, Pittsburgh's No. 4 prospect and the No. 49 prospect in baseball according to MLBPipeline.com, went 4-2 with a 2.04 ERA and 61 strikeouts in 10 starts for Indianapolis this season. Showing no signs of rust after two years spent recovering from Tommy John surgery and a hernia operation, Taillon pitched at least six innings in nine of those 10 starts, and he was charged with two earned runs or fewer in seven of them.

Taillon He leads the International League with a 1.93 FIP, a 10.2 strikeout-to-walk ratio and a 0.81 WHIP, and his 0.9 walks per nine innings are also a league best.
His arm appears loose and easy and he?s been sitting 94-96 mph with his fastball and showcasing his 12-to-6 curveball.

His command has not suffered from the layoff, for he has struck out 61 and walked just six. Taillon mixes his pitches well, throwing a four-seam fastball, a two-seamer, a nascent changeup and curve. He says he throws the two-seamer to get a ground ball when he needs it.

?The arm is 100 percent full go,? Taillon told BA in April. ?If anything, I feel extra fresh, because I?ve had 900 and something days since my last start (before his first start on April 13).?

His curveball looks as sharp as it did pre-surgery....This season, Taillon has shown no platoon split, but he has dominated lefthanded batters, holding them to a .148/.186/.284 slash thanks to his improving changeup.

The one red flag for Taillon will be holding baserunners?not that there have been many. But runners have succeeded in four out of four attempts against him this year because of a long delivery. Taillon is athletic and repeats the delivery well, but he has not given catchers much of a chance to throw runners out. For his career, about 10 percent of basestealers have been caught trying to steal.

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Archie Bradley - 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 3 BBs, 10 Ks. The biggest change I'm seeing from Bradley over these last two starts is an increased ability to A) throw his Curveball for a strike and B) get a boatload more whiffs with the pitch. I'm not sold that his command is good enough to keep this up, especially with his horrible control history, but you best be riding this hot hand until further notice.

Diamondbacks -101

Arizona is showing great value here as a small home favorite against the Rays. The Diamondbacks won easily last night 5-0 behind their ace Zack Greinke and I look for Archie Bradley to keep the Tampa Bay offense in check again today.

Bradley got off to a rough start, but has really looked sharp of late. He struck out 10 and allowed just 1 run on 4 hits in 6 innings against the Cubs in his most recent outing. Prior to that he struck out 9, giving up just 3 runs on 4 hits in 7 1/3 against the Padres. Tampa Bay is scoring just 3.7 runs/game and hitting .227 as a team against right-handed starters this season.

The Rays counter with Jake Odorizzi, who comes in with a strong 3.32 ERA and 1.123 WHIP in 12 starts, but he's not been near as sharp away from home. He's got a 4.22 ERA and 1.344 WHIP in 6 road starts and the Diamondbacks are no easy offense to keep in check, especially when they are playing at home.

Tampa Bay is just 1-5 in their last 6 after scoring 2 runs or less, 1-4 in their last 5 following a loss and 2-11 in their last 13 against a starter that is allowing 5.5 or less hits/game. This is also a getaway game for the Rays, who will finally get to return home after a lengthy 10-game road trip.


Mets vs. Pirates
Play: Under 7

Jameson Taillon makes his long awaited debut on Wednesday as the Pirates host the Mets. Taillon was 4-2 with a 2.04 ERA in 10 triple-A starts. The righty had 61 strikeouts to just six walks in 61.2 innings of work. Righties hit just .224 while lefties checked in at .148. The Mets offense has struggled as of late hitting .233 entering Tuesday's doubleheader. Noah Syndergaard is 6-2 with a 1.94 ERA and a WHIP of 0.976 in 11 starts for New York with six of them going under the total. He has allowed just two earned runs and 14 hits in his last three starts with 23 K's to just one walk. Thor lost last year in Pittsburgh towards the beginning of his career, but now he's getting a struggling Pirates lineup. Before Tuesday's doubleheader, they were hitting .232 in their last seven games. The Mets bullpen has solid numbers on the year so a late lead should be held. I think this one goes quickly and goes under the total.

Houston Astros at Texas Rangers
Prediction: Texas Rangers

The Texas Rangers beat the Houston Astros for the EIGHTH consecutive time on Tuesday, winning in their last at-bat for the second straight night in this four-game series. The Rangers won Monday?s opener on a RBI double in the bottom of the ninth inning and won last night on a two-run HR in the bottom of the eighth. The victory upped the team?s overall winning streak to a season-high five games, giving Texas a 36-22 record. The Rangers own a four-game lead over the Mariners in the AL West and are now NINE games up on the 28-32 Rangers.

Texas will try to defeat the visiting Astros for the ninth consecutive time on Wednesday, as Yu Darvish makes his third start since returning from Tommy John surgery. Darvish has won his first two starts of 2016 but looked sharper in his season debut against Pittsburgh than he did in his second time out against Seattle. He gave up one run and three hits in five innings against the Pirates before allowing three runs and six hits in 5.2 innings vs the Mariners. Darvish is 4-3 with a 3.54 ERA in nine career starts against the Astros, with Texas owning a 6-3 record in his starts.

Doug Fister (5-3, 3.51 ERA) gets the nod for Houston. Fister enters having won FOUR consecutive decisions, including his last outing against Oakland in which he scattered four hits over six scoreless innings. He has compiled a 2.45 ERA during a seven-start unbeaten streak (Astros are a PERFECT 7-0), allowing two runs or less in FIVE of those seven starts. However, Fister fell to 4-5 with a 5.18 ERA in 11 career regular season starts (teams are 4-7) against Texas on April 20, when he suffered the loss after giving up two runs and five hits in six innings.

The Astros have now lost 12 straight visits to Arlington dating back to last season. What changes tonight? NOTHING!

Miami vs. Minnesota
Pick: Minnesota

Rarely, do the Twins get even a recommendation from me, but I like what I see here tonight vs. Miami, both in terms of line movement and the matchup. Despite drawing fewer overall bets than Miami here, the line has moved in the home team's direction. The Twins did win yday's series opener, 6-4, snapping a 3-game skid.

Miami has been a bit of an overachiever so far. If you look at their run differential (which is currently -18), you would expect them to have a losing record. But they're actually two games above .500. Lately though, they've shown signs of regression. Over the last seven games, they've averaged just 3.0 rpg while batting a collective .223. Their only win in the last four game came with Jose Fernandez starting and it was a 1-0 final over the Mets. Tonight's starter Wei-Yen Chen has looked pretty good in his last two starts, but threw 100 pitches his last time out and had to leave after six innings. That's pretty inefficient and I wouldn't be the least bit surprised to see him struggle here.

All of a sudden, Minnesota is hitting home runs. They've hit six in the last two games. That's the kind of support Ricky Nolasco will be looking for here as last time out he got only two runs of support, which wasn't enough. But he pitched well for a second straight start, allowing just three runs and six hits in 7 2/3 innings. That followed him allowing only two runs and three hits in a win at Seattle on May 29th. Nolasco's KW ratio in his L2 starts is a superb 14-1. As bad as the Twins' overall record might be (17-40), they are actually 8-8 when off a win.

 

[Terryray]

07:05 PM MLB [906] TOTAL u7-125 (NY METS vrs PIT PIRATES) ( N SYNDERGAARD -R / J TAILLON -R )
07:10 PM MLB [907] TOTAL o9.5 EV (STL CARDINALS vrs CIN REDS) ( J GARCIA -L / A SIMON -R )
07:05 PM MLB [914] NY YANKEES -200 ( J WEAVER -R / N EOVALDI -R )
09:00 PM NBA [3506] 1Q CLE CAVALIERS -0.5 -135
08:30 PM NBA [602] DAL WINGS -2.5 -150 (B+2)

1 unit bet pays 14 ....betdsi line

Goooooood Luck ALLLL!!!! :spotting: :00hour:em71:

ripped, cut and pasted, otherwise written by others, from across the internets:

Yu Darvish - 5.2 IP, 3 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks. The Mariners aren't a team to be messed around with, but the main focus is if his velocity is still up. And hot damn is it up as he hit 99.9 mph yesterday. He didn't average as high as last weekend's debut, but still well above his previous marks in 2013 and 2014. I have a feeling Darvish is going to be Top 10 ROS, so pull a JT and buy buy buy.

Cardinals @ Reds
Garcia is 1-3, 5.59 in his last four starts; four of his last six stayed under.
Simon is 1-2, 9.74 in his last four starts; over is 5-0-1 in his last six starts.
St Louis is 5-6 in its last 11 road games; seven of their last ten games went over total. Reds won six of last eight games; ten of their last eleven games went over.

Betcha didn?t know: The Yankees have won each of the last five home matchups with the Angels dating back to the start of 2015. New York has outscored Los Angeles in its current series, 11-5, as Nathan Eovaldi takes the ball tonight for the Yankees. The Bronx Bombers own a 4-1 record in Eovaldi?s five home starts this season, and 11-3 in his past 14 starts at Yankee Stadium since April 2015.

Washington -1? +105 over CHICAGO

We?re not going to discuss Max Scherzer because there is nothing to discuss. He?s not laboring, his skills aren?t declining and we all know exactly who he is.

James Shields is well-acquainted with the American League Central after spending two seasons with the Royals (2013-2014). In order to make room for Shields, the White Sox have moved starter Miguel Gonzalez to the bullpen. Replacing Gonzalez with Shields is equivalent to putting perfume on a pig. Starting six games at the best pitchers park in the majors this year, Shields had an oppBA of .282 and lefties have raked him over the coals for two years and counting. In fact, left-handed batters have a .303 BA and .809 OPS against Shields over the past two plus seasons. Now he switches to a hitters park. On the road this year, Shields? has an ERA of 5.28 over five starts. Two of those starts were at San Fran?s AT&T Park. One was at Seattle?s Safeco Field and one was at Milwaukee. When Shields opened the year in Colorado, he was taken yard three times. He?s been taken yard two times or more in the same game three times.

Shields' fastball velocity has dropped sharply in recent seasons. His complete loss of control (53% first-pitch strike rate and awful 40% overall balls) stick out as major red flags. A touch of hit%/strand% luck has suppressed Shields' ERA, but xERA and overall skills indicate his ERA is headed north. The Nationals will send up at least four and possibly five LH bats here that include Bryce Harper and Daniel Murphy. Just to recap, LHB beat him up. HR?s follow him around everywhere. For every six strikes he throws, he also throws four balls. The tip of the decline started well over two years ago for Shields but nobody really noticed much because he was pitching in a pitchers park for a team that nobody gives a damn about. Shields? will now take his act to the South Side of Chicago where it is very likely going to get ugly.

PITTSBURGH +130 over N.Y. Mets

Noah Syndergaard is one of the best in the game. That?s not news but he also pitches for a team that just got swept in a double-header yesterday and whose offensive numbers are worse than every team in baseball over the past 25 games. In fact, the Mets are hitting .211 over that span, which is worse than San Diego and Atlanta. They have also scored the fewest runs in the majors over that span too. In yesterday?s DH, New York scored twice but failed to score anything on starter Jonathan Niese in Game 1 and scored once on Juan Nicasio in Game 2. The Mets had nine hits combined in both games and now they?re favored on the road against a team they cannot beat to begin with and against a pitcher they have never seen before.

Jameson Taillon would have been called up earlier this year had it not been for the ?Super-Two eligible rule that deals with arbitration. The Pirates have another super-talented pitcher in the minors by the name of Tyler Glasgow that figures to be called up soon too. Taillon has not merely gotten people out at the highest level of the minors, but has punched them out. They?re a pair of guys who have not just overcome their opponents, but overwhelmed them, with scorching fastballs and some of the best breaking stuff in the minors.

Taillon, the #2 overall pick in the 2010 draft, missed all of 2014 and 2015 due to Tommy John surgery that he underwent in April 2014. Pittsburgh was extremely cautious with his rehab and it appears to be paying off. While the Pirates have indicated they would strictly monitor his pitch and innings counts, he?s been incredibly efficient in his starts this year. Taillon has pitched at least 6 innings in 9 of his 10 starts, yet he?s never gone above 100 pitches. Despite the long lay-off, Taillon has been downright dominant, exhibiting outstanding command and getting hitters to chase his two plus offerings. His velocity is back to normal, hitting the mid-90s consistently. Taillon spots his four-seam and two-seam fastballs to all quadrants of the strike zone. His best pitch may be his plus curveball that exhibits great power and shape. He?ll also mix in a decent change-up that often flashes plus. He offers the size and power frame to dominate and gets good downhill tilt that makes his fastball difficult to elevate. In 10 starts at Triple-A Indianapolis, Taillon went 4-2 with a 2.04 ERA, 10.2 K?s/9, 0.9 BB?s/9 and an oppBA of just .196. Minor-leaguers that dominate are no sure things but this one is as close as it gets. As a pooch at home, the Pirates are more than worthy here.

Kansas City +140 over BALTIMORE

On May 29, Orioles RHP Chris Tillman pitched six innings at Cleveland. He gave up four hits (three of them HRs) and four runs, all earned. He walked three and fanned three. He left after the sixth, tied 4-4. In the top of the seventh, Hyun Soo Kim smacked a solo HR to put Baltimore into the lead, and the O?s ended up winning 6-4. Tillman moved to 7-1 on the season but a careful look at Tillman?s skills strongly suggests this breakout isn?t for real. His skills remain as average as they have been through a mostly unremarkable career, and his lofty current value is based largely on an outsized win percentage and some other favorable luck. If your own luck means you have backed Tillman frequently, you should start considering a sell-high tactic; if you haven?t backed Tillman, don?t be in any hurry to.

Despite his lack of dominance or ability to consistently fool hitters, Tillman has done well in generating soft contact, though not so well in generating medium contact, where he is bottom-10, or limiting hard contact, where he is worse than the MLB average. Similarly, he has proved to be below-average in GB/LD/FB ratio with a 40%/20%/40% G/L/F split. Where Tillman has really shone is in being lucky. His hit rate this year is 25%, a very low rate for any pitcher, and especially for a pitcher who is:

Average at best in throwing strikes, average at limiting hard-hit balls, not particularly dominant and is affected by control issues. At the same time, Tillman has a 78% strand rate, well above what we would expect from an otherwise average starter. If that strand % were to normalize towards 71% or so, Tillman?s ERA wouldn't look so pretty.

None of this is intended to make you think Chris Tillman is a bad pitcher. He isn?t. There are lots of starting pitchers in MLB far worse than Chris Tillman. But neither is he a good pitcher, despite uncommon luck with hit%, strand% and wins that make him look like a better pitcher than he is. So what is he? He?s a pitcher who is remarkably average, with slightly above-average strikeout ability (despite no obvious strikeout pitches) and some slightly below-average other skills. He is the 2014 innings-eater, having a run of better luck.

We are specifically not declaring that Tillman will regress to norms and therefore reveal himself as the average pitcher the skills analysis shows him to be. Any analysis that says a player will regress to norm is an analysis of dubious trustworthiness. Tillman himself has shown that it's possible for a pitcher to maintain a lower-than-normal hit% and higher-than normal strand% for entire seasons. In four years out of the last five, including this year, Tillman has outpitched his xERA, three times by 0.87 runs or more, and he has posted ERAs under 3.00 twice. There is a school of thought that says sometimes players, especially pitchers, just outperform their skills metrics, and we have to accept that reality disagrees with even the most careful analysis. In short, the metrics might not reveal something that sets Tillman apart.

That said, however, regression and a resulting decline in production are almost always the way to play this sort of hand. We would expect some kind of move towards a 30% hit rate and a 71% strand rate and therefore we would expect his WHIP and ERA to rise. And counting on any pitcher for wins is a mug?s game, especially when the pitcher has demonstrated relatively average skills. Chris Tillman may win today but he?s very overpriced and that is all we care about.