Tight line, IMO.
Let's first throw out all the BS ESPN throws at you about LSU being 8-3 in the series. Last time they played was '88. Oddly enough, I do put stock in trends, but when they're this old, forget it.
Miami 9-2 will be ready for this game, they don't want a 3 loss season, especially since one of the losses was at the hands of GTech. They dominated Virginia Tech, one of the better teams on their schedule.
LSU 10--2's losses came to TN, early this year, who turned out to have a poor year considering they were supposed to be contenders, and were beat on all sides of the ball by Georgia in their conf. title game. I think Miami's defense is similar to Georgia's which could give them some trouble, but their offense is not as explosive this year.
Both teams had a disappointing season; but I think LSU should put something together, and play Miami tough. Agree w/you about the QB, NL to begin with, so let's assume 3 pts for Russell only b/c he's the QB. LSU +3' look good to you? To me that begs for $$$ on Miami. Still see Miami as a public darling, and I'll grab the extra 3. LSU +6' gets the call.